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Forums - Sales - New reliable figure signalizes that psv is hugely overtracked! The error wouldn't be so big, if the huge adjusting up (due to a misapprehension) back in April had been avoided!PSV/PSP figures inside!

I'm laughing so much right now since tak finally has an official-looking source. Well-done, but I'm waiting for the next White Paper.



 
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Goodnightmoon said:

So many time reading that PSV was painfully undertracked and now it turns up to be overtracked xD

So if this is true we can asume that WiiU and PSV sales are probably very similar right now.


How much was wiiu end of 2o14 and how much is it Ltd? 



tbone51 said:
Goodnightmoon said:

So many time reading that PSV was painfully undertracked and now it turns up to be overtracked xD

So if this is true we can asume that WiiU and PSV sales are probably very similar right now.


How much was wiiu end of 2o14 and how much is it Ltd? 


9.20 million by end of 2014.

10.73 million by end of 2015.

 

Next quarter, Nintendo will ship at least +1.5 million Wii U ( 2 million most likely) and will definitively outsell Vita.



Alkibiádēs said:
binary solo said:
I'm not really seeing a big problem here.

And certainly not one deserving of the hyperbole in the thread title.

So basically the over all message is, VGC shows PSV is and has always been selling like shit everywhere other than Japan, but it turns out PSV has been selling somewhat shittier than VGC has shown. And the only people who care about the difference between actual and estimated are people who want Wii U not to be the shittiest selling hardware of the 8th generation.

So let us say PSV is 600K over tracked as of today, it is ~400K ahead of it's LTD shipment number and we can place 200K on shop shelves. This is a 4.7% error compared to VGC's sell through estimate of 12.6M. Any LTD that is within 5% of actual global sales is quite reasonable IMO. You can't expect VGC to be any more accurate than that because they don't even get real sales data from all countries where hardware is selling. In fact my understanding is that VGC only gets actual sales information from a minority of countries, though I may be wrong.

Let's say VGC is over tracking by 1 million. That's still only an 8% error. Certainly a higher error than desirable but not outrageously so.

These expected error rates (who in their right mind expects VGC to be exact with sell through?) can make things look bad, especially when one console is over tracked and one undertracked, because it makes the relative gap between the consoles quite large compared to reality. But you can't compare reasonable errors for individual consoles and conclude an unacceptable error when combined. Each console estimate is independant of all other estimates.

The thing people find hard to swallow is when VGC sell through > confirmed LTD shipment. But when you get a console that sells as shit as PSV that is a real risk because there are going to be so few units on shop shelves that even an overtrack error of a very acceptably low % will lead to a sell through estimate > LTD shipments. Let's assume there are 200K PSV's on shop shelves. VGC could be over tracking by as little as 1.6% and the VGC estimate would be above the PSV LTD.

Now to the question: SHOULD VGC adjust the PSV down? Well, yes, no matter what % error they are sitting at, they can't credibly sustain a sell through LTD that is higher than the confirmed shipment LTD. They basically need to adjust down to what would be a fairly reasonable number of units in the retail channels. I hope it happens, but they need to remove those sales from specific countries and from specific weeks, they can't just say -11 PSVs from every country for every week from 3 Oct '15 back to 31 Dec '15 (27 Dec chart has PSV at 9.63M which is 130K under the shipped LTD at the time, probably a tad over, but pretty reasonable). That might give you a correct LTD, but you will reduce accuracy in individual countries.

So I don't think people should be too upset about where things are sitting.

It's most likely overtracked by 2 million +. How is that not a big deal for a console that sold so little? There's simply no way this console has been selling 40k units each week. 20k units seems much more like it. According to vgchartz it's selling 20k units in Europe alone, that's nearing 3DS numbers! Yet I have yet to see stores that have a Vita in stocks and never have I seen any sort of advertisement for anything related to the Vita. And I have been to many European countries past few years!

Ok let's assume you're right. Still not a big deal. PSV is still selling shit at 12.6 million or 10.X million. It only matters to people who want Wii U's current 10.5 million to not be the shittiest. Accuracy is good, but people are only even giving this attention because of the implications for relative sales with Wii U.

This basically amounts to a pissing contest between 2 old men with prostate problems.



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binary solo said:

Ok let's assume you're right. Still not a big deal. PSV is still selling shit at 12.6 million or 10.X million. It only matters to people who want Wii U's current 10.5 million to not be the shittiest. Accuracy is good, but people are only even giving this attention because of the implications for relative sales with Wii U.

This basically amounts to a pissing contest between 2 old men with prostate problems.

You're on a site that tracks sales, of course such a huge error is a big deal. And yes, after years of snarky comments by some Sony fans it is hilarious that the Vita is the one that is overtracked a lot.



"The strong do what they can and the weak suffer what they must" - Thoukydides

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TheWPCTraveler said:
I'm laughing so much right now since tak finally has an official-looking source. Well-done, but I'm waiting for the next White Paper.


You must laugh because there are still people who try to confute me, even now (with official-looking source, as you say) after all the compelling evidence that add up....



Ryng_Tolu said:
tbone51 said:


How much was wiiu end of 2o14 and how much is it Ltd? 


9.20 million by end of 2014.

10.73 million by end of 2015.

 

Next quarter, Nintendo will ship at least +1.5 million Wii U ( 2 million most likely) and will definitively outsell Vita.

How do you think Wii U will outsell Vita by next quarter?

It's not like I'm doubting, I just wanna know what do you think.



Alkibiádēs said:
binary solo said:
 

Ok let's assume you're right. Still not a big deal. PSV is still selling shit at 12.6 million or 10.X million. It only matters to people who want Wii U's current 10.5 million to not be the shittiest. Accuracy is good, but people are only even giving this attention because of the implications for relative sales with Wii U.

This basically amounts to a pissing contest between 2 old men with prostate problems.

You're on a site that tracks sales, of course such a huge error is a big deal. And yes, after years of snarky comments by some Sony fans it is hilarious that the Vita is the one that is overtracked a lot.


The problem is that, vgc adjust it hugely  up in april, otherwise the overtracking wasn't a huge error, that breaks my head!

The adjustment was misguided, but I justified why the responsible for tracking, did it, pure misapprehension and strong pressure with irrational/baseless claimings by a specific member!

 I explain it here:

Vgc has psv at 10.3 as of March 28th, 10.35m as of April 4th, and then ioi adjusts it up by 1.3m (the 1m went in europe), to bring it to 11.6m as of the 11th April after the news that psv has shipped 600k units in spain, ioi surmised that he hadn't tracked that, the LTD before the adjustment in europe was 3m, The huge european markets, the uk, France, and Germany were summing up 1.2m, leaving 1.8m for the rest of Europe, acceptable for a bad perfoming platform in general, we can believe that the 600k sales of Spain was there or the most of it, even if it was tracked inadvertently!

Ioi after that fact, pressured and influenced by a specific member who was trying for a long time to persuade him to adjust it up, by insisting on that psv is a big seller to fairly smaller european markets such as chezh republic, belgium e.t.c  (well it is in spain, something that dazzled many people because is more by 70k by the sales in the uk, by 100k than sales in france, and by 300k than sales in Germany, from what vgc demonstrates, a tracking firm though proved right vgc for the uk/france numbers!

In spite of Spain being a way smaller market than uk/france, psv manages to be surprisingly robust there, a sign that sony's playstation big brand strength (which in spain must  be very even stronger) applies to the handheld in spain's market, due to these developments ioi considered that he undertracked it in other secondary european markets too.)   That reared a suspicious result, to wit, Europe, being psv best selling territory, instead of Japan, where it has game support+ the merit of handheld market dominance, while in the old continental, the absolute nothing....


I don't really blame that member,because psv was looking quite undertracked in the beggining! Eventually,ioi succumbed and adjusted it up heavily,while he was tracking it almost perfectly or moderately overtracking it...  

New op:
http://www.latribune.fr/technos-medias/20150210trib562875d47/jeux-video-retour-a-la-croissance-pour-un-marche-francais-tire-par-les-consoles.html Yeah, psv has sold 446k in France by the end of 2014 and 600k as of June 2015 in spain, so it has truly sold more in spain than in france despite the market size difference , so that fact wasn't meaning that it was undertracked in other european countries... Vgc has it at 468k at france by that time interval, good tracking!

Also global sales from it's launch till January 2013 were at 4m vs 4.4m of vgc!

http://www.theguardian.com/technology/2013/jan/04/playstation-2-manufacture-ends-years It's overtracked by 400k since 2013!

An error, that can't be considered huge!

Usually the errors aren't huge, and there are many cases of succesful/perfect or approximate tracking... But that kind of overtracking can't be ignored!

  



Alex_The_Hedgehog said:
Ryng_Tolu said:


9.20 million by end of 2014.

10.73 million by end of 2015.

 

Next quarter, Nintendo will ship at least +1.5 million Wii U ( 2 million most likely) and will definitively outsell Vita.

How do you think Wii U will outsell Vita by next quarter?

It's not like I'm doubting, I just wanna know what do you think.

PSVita is < 10.2 million by March 2015. My estimate is 10.16 million, could be a bit bigger or a bit smaller.

Wii U is at 9.54 million. Assuming my estimate are correct, the gap is around 620k.

Then, Wii U shipped 470k in Q2 and 720k in Q3. I really can't see Vita ship that much, since we know was massive down YOY the first quarter, and last year PSP+PSV shipped 750k in Q2 and 700k in Q3.

In my estimate, PSVita is at 10.91 million shipped now. This mean the Wii U / PSV gap is under 200k.

 

Last year, Wii U in the holidays outsold PSP and PSV combined by over 500k. And this year is gonna be even bigger, i see 1 million gap.

So, that is. By end of 2015,  Wii U should be nearly / at 1 million over PSVita. And NX will change nothing, Wii U will beat PSVita even in 2016 during all quarters ( holidays and not holidays) , and even if will not, which is too unlucky, Vita can't close one million gap.



tak13 said:
Jranation said:
Why cant sony just make it easier for us, and give us updates on the PSVITA alone!!!!

Like what Nintendo is doing with the Wii U. Even though its not selling as much as the competitors, they are still updating us with both hardware and software sales.

Quite embarrassing from sony you know.


Just, imagine the articles about Nintendo hiding the sales of wii u... DOOM!

 

Journalists almost left uninterested by the fact that sony hides psv sales, and Microfost starts doing the same with xb1,  while previously both of them were combining them with the sales of their predecessors!


They might as well combine the PS4 sales and the PSVITA since the Vita is a controller for it. 



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