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Forums - Gaming Discussion - When will the Vita pass the 3DS in weekly sales?

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When will the Vita pass the 3DS in weekly sales?

Almost inmediately after the NX release. 16 10.06%
 
A year after the NX release. 16 10.06%
 
Two years after the NX release. 6 3.77%
 
Three years after the NX release. 3 1.89%
 
Four years after the NX release. 4 2.52%
 
The Vita will be discontinued before the 3DS. 94 59.12%
 
The GameGear will make a ... 20 12.58%
 
Total:159
mountaindewslave on 06 November 2015

it won't happen unless the 3DS is discontinued before the Vita

based on Vita sales that seems hard to believe though... I don't think Vita will be in stores come like 2017 and the NX at earliest will probably be holiday of 2016

the 3DS most certainly will still be available for purchase the next few years

 

so its extremely unlikely. even if the 3DS was selling like 1/3 or 1/4 on average of what it does in a few years then it beats what the Vita is doing NOW and the reality is the Vita will decrease as well

 

again, only way for it to happen is if the 3DS is discontinued in like 2017 and Sony decides for some strange reason to continue the Vita past then (which most likely won't happen as they will be losing money on it at that point if sales dip)



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tak13 on 06 November 2015
Darwinianevolution said:
tak13 said:
Darwinianevolution said:
tak13 said:

I'm really wondering...

What's your LT prediction for 3DS?

If the NX comes out next year, 60 million units aprox. If it comes in 2017, 65m aprox.


I suspected that you have a really low prediction for 3DS and that you believe it won't have any legs...

If NX comes in 2016  and your 3ds prediction is at 60m... There is a huge problem!

Becaue it has to stop selling to end up to 60m, if NX will be released in 2016...

 

Also you ignore the forecast of Nintendo about 59.6 units shipped as of March 31h 2015, or 7.6m for the fiscal year,  it's at 54.34 as of FY15Q2 and have shipped 2.28m, FY15 Q1+Q2 VS 2m FY14 Q1+Q3...

Oh guys do some research in order to make a prediction, I will be a suprising outcome if 3DS falls ashort 70m, it will definetely reach it, because it is on track to it..

The gap with gba is 4m now... If you don't know it, Japan, covers considerably of the deficit from  gap of 3ds vs gba in NA, as for others+europe, they are equal!

Where do you base such a lowballing prediction?

I didn't know the shipment numbers :P  I'm thinking that, with the handheld market shrinking, the amount of 3DS sold after the NX launch won't be that big. The GBA and the DS had a decent potential, and sold well during its successor's lifespam because handhelds weren't hurt by mobile yet. The handheld audience (3DS+Vita) will quickly go to the NX because there won't be any other option for dedicated handheld gaming. And most of the people who wanted to buy a 3DS, either they already got it, or they will wait to see if the NX is BC with the 3DS, at least with the handheld part. It would be easy, the 3DS and the N3DS are very underpowered compared to today's hardware standards. The only thing that can make the 3DS hardware resist years after the NX is a big pricecut of the N3DS model, which it will probably happen, but not soon enough to make a big impact.

I would love to have some demografic statistics of the 3DS userbase, it would be great to make predictions like this.


Good reasoning, but still the 60m if NX will be released in 2016 doesn't add up, it's almost near Nintendo's forecast as of March 31th 2016...

And 3DS so far has shipped more units than it has in the first six months of 2014! 2.28m, FY15 Q1+Q2 VS  FY14 Q1+Q3 2m!

3DS should stop being sold in order to end up with 60m in tha case...

However, Even if Nintendo misses its 59.6m target as of March 31th 2014 ( which might smash it in FY15Q3, if 3ds at least be flat with same quarter in 2014, ergo shipping 5m (OCT-DEC +54.34m as of september '15), and  the current  somewhat yoy up trending shows that it can), it won't be bigger by 1m, so 3DS will sell only 1.4m, after being replaced allegdly in 2016?

No way, a drop from 7m to 1m, it is irrational, 2016 is 3ds fifth year, Nintendo handhelds, keep selling good amounts three years after the release of their successor!

New 3ds/3dxl main mission is to sell to already  3ds owners, dont' forget that! :P And don't be so pessimistic about the price drop effect! :P

Even gamecube sold 4m after being replaced by wii... :P



Platina on 06 November 2015

Probably after the 3DS successor is released



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tak13 on 06 November 2015
Shadow1980 said:
tak13 said:
Darwinianevolution said:

If the NX comes out next year, 60 million units aprox. If it comes in 2017, 65m aprox.


I suspected that you have a really low prediction for 3DS and that you believe it won't have any legs...

FWIW, handhelds tend to have weak sales legs. Every Nintendo handheld died off rapidly sales-wise once its successor came out. The Game Boy Color was dead in the water the year after the GBA was released. In the U.S. the GBA managed to hold on for a while after the DS was released, but only because the original model DS was not an instant success. But once the DS Lite came out and the DS took off, the GBA sunk like a stone. In Japan, the GBA's sales plummeted rapidly after the original model DS was released. The DS itself started to evaporate rapidly once the 3DS was released, especially in Japan. It stands to reason that once the 3DS's successor is released, it too will suffer the same fate as the DS, GBA, and Game Boy before it, with sales dropping rapidly and drying up almost entirely within two years.

You need to check your data for some errors... ;) GBA still sold 5m after DS lite release and ds 3m after 3ds release.... 

One difference with 3DS, it's that it has more room to grow further than GBA or especially ds had in similar time frame (it had reached the huge 151m how much more could it sell, plus the 3DS backwards compatability, made ds purchase superfluous, particularly  due to the similar mechanics between ds and 3ds, I mean, if we had got a psv like 3ds and having ds backward compatability, it wouldn't affect , onwards sales of ds in the same extend ), both DS and GBA had hit the mark of  oversaturation (more in ds case) by the time they got replaced and weren't in an earlier stage of popularization, as for 3ds there is still room/ and it's at an earlier stage of popularization, (at least for the west) as I said!

Also, the poster didn't  take into account the possibility,  of no 3DS backwards compatability, at least with physical copies...

Did you see the discussion between me and the writer? He claims that if NX releases in 2016, 3ds will end up at 60m, you find that rational?

Nintendo's forecast is 59.6m 3DS units sold-iin as of March 31th 16, or 7.6m for the FY15!

In the first six monts of FY15 they have shipped 2.28m 3ds vs 2m+ same time frame in 2014, yoy up, total shipments of 3DS are at 54.34m as of september, it could be flat in FY15Q3 (oct-dec) i.e shipping 5m, reaching 59.43 by the end of 2014 or even missing it for 1m, the legs of 3DS will be only 1m-2m in three years after the alleged replacement?

Nintendo handhelds keep selling good amounts three years after their successor arrival...



fluky-nintendy on 06 November 2015

It's the same thing as asking when WiiU will pass the PS4 in a week. Why beat dead horses...



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DanneSandin on 07 November 2015
Shadow1980 said:
Alex_The_Hedgehog said:
Dr.Vita said:

Should start during mid 2016. NX announcement will eat up 3DS sales too.
PS Vita sold 50k and 3DS 80k this week according to VGChartz so it is not far away.

You know, NX could eat Vita sales too...

Improbable. PSP sales were not affected in any meaningful way by the 3DS launch, but they were affected by the Vita's launch. The 3DS's launch only had an effect on DS sales. So, it stands to reason that, if the NX is meant to replace the 3DS, it will only affect 3DS sales but have no impact on Vita sales.

That's my analysis as well, the only reservation I have is if the NX manages to cater to the Vita audience as well - which might be the case if it's the hybrid Fusion device like the rumours have it. That might kill of the Vita since you'd actually get a home console experience on a portable, literally. The only way for the Vita to keep on selling then is if the PSV demographic is all die hard Sony/PS supporters.



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DanneSandin on 07 November 2015
Darwinianevolution said:
DanneSandin said:

What I think is quite interesting to note, is that the both handhelds have their own demographics, or so the sales numbers of the DS and PSP would imply, and this might be a valid reason for the PSV to over take the 3DS in weekly sales numbers when Nintendo's next handheld is released. Granted, it might only be for a short while if Nintendo manages to cater to the Vita audience as well (which very well might be the case if the NX is a hybrid Fusion). y

True. I would like to know how many japanese developers will bring Vita ports to the NX. If the NX is powerful and easy to develop for, they could bring dozens of games to the NX on the first year by ports alone.

Yes, if the NX is a hybrid (meaning, you can either play the same game as either a home console or portable experience, or it's easy and cheap to port games between the two different consoles) and is easy and cheap to make games for, I think we'll see a big and swift shift from Vita development to NX development - or at the very least a lot more ports, like you said.



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Blob on 07 November 2015

If it does happen, it will be well after the 3ds is replaced. That is of course depending on whether or not the nx handheld can knock off the vita. Either way it's not going to be at any point that really matters lol



b00moscone on 07 November 2015

Prooobably never.

The 3DS's lineup next year is fairly solid, and once the next handheld will come out, it will knock the sales of both the 3DS and Vita, so unless the Vita gets some incredibly hyped AAA game that will boost sales like crazy, i don't see ti happening.



 

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LipeJJ on 07 November 2015

Maybe in 2017 if support in completely dropped by then. Just maybe. That if the NX doesn't eat up the Vita demographic too.



Bet with Teeqoz for 2 weeks of avatar and sig control that Super Mario Odyssey would ship more than 7m on its first 2 months. The game shipped 9.07m, so I won