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tak13 on 06 November 2015
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Darwinianevolution said:
tak13 said:
Darwinianevolution said:
tak13 said:

I'm really wondering...

What's your LT prediction for 3DS?

If the NX comes out next year, 60 million units aprox. If it comes in 2017, 65m aprox.


I suspected that you have a really low prediction for 3DS and that you believe it won't have any legs...

If NX comes in 2016  and your 3ds prediction is at 60m... There is a huge problem!

Becaue it has to stop selling to end up to 60m, if NX will be released in 2016...

 

Also you ignore the forecast of Nintendo about 59.6 units shipped as of March 31h 2015, or 7.6m for the fiscal year,  it's at 54.34 as of FY15Q2 and have shipped 2.28m, FY15 Q1+Q2 VS 2m FY14 Q1+Q3...

Oh guys do some research in order to make a prediction, I will be a suprising outcome if 3DS falls ashort 70m, it will definetely reach it, because it is on track to it..

The gap with gba is 4m now... If you don't know it, Japan, covers considerably of the deficit from  gap of 3ds vs gba in NA, as for others+europe, they are equal!

Where do you base such a lowballing prediction?

I didn't know the shipment numbers :P  I'm thinking that, with the handheld market shrinking, the amount of 3DS sold after the NX launch won't be that big. The GBA and the DS had a decent potential, and sold well during its successor's lifespam because handhelds weren't hurt by mobile yet. The handheld audience (3DS+Vita) will quickly go to the NX because there won't be any other option for dedicated handheld gaming. And most of the people who wanted to buy a 3DS, either they already got it, or they will wait to see if the NX is BC with the 3DS, at least with the handheld part. It would be easy, the 3DS and the N3DS are very underpowered compared to today's hardware standards. The only thing that can make the 3DS hardware resist years after the NX is a big pricecut of the N3DS model, which it will probably happen, but not soon enough to make a big impact.

I would love to have some demografic statistics of the 3DS userbase, it would be great to make predictions like this.


Good reasoning, but still the 60m if NX will be released in 2016 doesn't add up, it's almost near Nintendo's forecast as of March 31th 2016...

And 3DS so far has shipped more units than it has in the first six months of 2014! 2.28m, FY15 Q1+Q2 VS  FY14 Q1+Q3 2m!

3DS should stop being sold in order to end up with 60m in tha case...

However, Even if Nintendo misses its 59.6m target as of March 31th 2014 ( which might smash it in FY15Q3, if 3ds at least be flat with same quarter in 2014, ergo shipping 5m (OCT-DEC +54.34m as of september '15), and  the current  somewhat yoy up trending shows that it can), it won't be bigger by 1m, so 3DS will sell only 1.4m, after being replaced allegdly in 2016?

No way, a drop from 7m to 1m, it is irrational, 2016 is 3ds fifth year, Nintendo handhelds, keep selling good amounts three years after the release of their successor!

New 3ds/3dxl main mission is to sell to already  3ds owners, dont' forget that! :P And don't be so pessimistic about the price drop effect! :P

Even gamecube sold 4m after being replaced by wii... :P