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Forums - Gaming Discussion - When will the Vita pass the 3DS in weekly sales?

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When will the Vita pass the 3DS in weekly sales?

Almost inmediately after the NX release. 16 10.06%
 
A year after the NX release. 16 10.06%
 
Two years after the NX release. 6 3.77%
 
Three years after the NX release. 3 1.89%
 
Four years after the NX release. 4 2.52%
 
The Vita will be discontinued before the 3DS. 94 59.12%
 
The GameGear will make a ... 20 12.58%
 
Total:159
Alkibiádēs said:
DanneSandin said:
The Vita will probably start out selling the 3DS as soon as Nintendo's next handheld is released: just take a look at the transition between The DS and 3DS; the DS dropped from selling almost 1m in March 2010 to 200k the same period the next year, when the 3DS released. The PSP on the other hand was largely uneffected by the 3DS release and only started faltering sales wise when the Vita hit The marked

Now take a look at the GBA sales after the DS released. Granted, the 3DS is no GBA, but the Vita ain't no PSP either.

They were 24m... What do you want to say by that?

 

3DS vs GBA and Vita vs psp, comparison is irrational since the second will for ashort by alsmost 70m  from psp, while  3ds vs GBA gap, won't be bigger than 10m...

P.S Some people have to realize, that we don't know what NX is, it's probably a hybrid, but will it replace both consoles in the same year, and will that year be 2016? Because 2017 could be the release year...

Nintendo is used to release their consoles one year and a half later from the announcement or in the first half of  next year from the 3E3 announcement year. 

Also, let's not forget this trend, 1999->dolphin tease->2000 dolphin E3 announcement->2001 holidays Gamecube  2004->Revolution tease->2005-> Revolution announcement at E3-> 2006 holidays Wii release!



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I imagine the NX handheld releasing next christmas with a port of the PS4 Dragon Quest, while the 3DS has Dragon Quest for 3DS.



Alkibiádēs said:
DanneSandin said:
The Vita will probably start out selling the 3DS as soon as Nintendo's next handheld is released: just take a look at the transition between The DS and 3DS; the DS dropped from selling almost 1m in March 2010 to 200k the same period the next year, when the 3DS released. The PSP on the other hand was largely uneffected by the 3DS release and only started faltering sales wise when the Vita hit The marked

Now take a look at the GBA sales after the DS released. Granted, the 3DS is no GBA, but the Vita ain't no PSP either.

What I think is quite interesting to note, is that the both handhelds have their own demographics, or so the sales numbers of the DS and PSP would imply, and this might be a valid reason for the PSV to over take the 3DS in weekly sales numbers when Nintendo's next handheld is released. Granted, it might only be for a short while if Nintendo manages to cater to the Vita audience as well (which very well might be the case if the NX is a hybrid Fusion). y





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DanneSandin said:
Alkibiádēs said:
DanneSandin said:
The Vita will probably start out selling the 3DS as soon as Nintendo's next handheld is released: just take a look at the transition between The DS and 3DS; the DS dropped from selling almost 1m in March 2010 to 200k the same period the next year, when the 3DS released. The PSP on the other hand was largely uneffected by the 3DS release and only started faltering sales wise when the Vita hit The marked

Now take a look at the GBA sales after the DS released. Granted, the 3DS is no GBA, but the Vita ain't no PSP either.

What I think is quite interesting to note, is that the both handhelds have their own demographics, or so the sales numbers of the DS and PSP would imply, and this might be a valid reason for the PSV to over take the 3DS in weekly sales numbers when Nintendo's next handheld is released. Granted, it might only be for a short while if Nintendo manages to cater to the Vita audience as well (which very well might be the case if the NX is a hybrid Fusion). y

True. I would like to know how many japanese developers will bring Vita ports to the NX. If the NX is powerful and easy to develop for, they could bring dozens of games to the NX on the first year by ports alone.



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In real-life it won't. Vita is heavily overtracked in Europe by VGC.



I predict NX launches in 2017 - not 2016

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Darwinianevolution said:
DanneSandin said:
Alkibiádēs said:
DanneSandin said:
The Vita will probably start out selling the 3DS as soon as Nintendo's next handheld is released: just take a look at the transition between The DS and 3DS; the DS dropped from selling almost 1m in March 2010 to 200k the same period the next year, when the 3DS released. The PSP on the other hand was largely uneffected by the 3DS release and only started faltering sales wise when the Vita hit The marked

Now take a look at the GBA sales after the DS released. Granted, the 3DS is no GBA, but the Vita ain't no PSP either.

What I think is quite interesting to note, is that the both handhelds have their own demographics, or so the sales numbers of the DS and PSP would imply, and this might be a valid reason for the PSV to over take the 3DS in weekly sales numbers when Nintendo's next handheld is released. Granted, it might only be for a short while if Nintendo manages to cater to the Vita audience as well (which very well might be the case if the NX is a hybrid Fusion). y

True. I would like to know how many japanese developers will bring Vita ports to the NX. If the NX is powerful and easy to develop for, they could bring dozens of games to the NX on the first year by ports alone.

I'm really wondering...

What's your LT prediction for 3DS?



tak13 said:
Darwinianevolution said:
DanneSandin said:
Alkibiádēs said:
DanneSandin said:
The Vita will probably start out selling the 3DS as soon as Nintendo's next handheld is released: just take a look at the transition between The DS and 3DS; the DS dropped from selling almost 1m in March 2010 to 200k the same period the next year, when the 3DS released. The PSP on the other hand was largely uneffected by the 3DS release and only started faltering sales wise when the Vita hit The marked

Now take a look at the GBA sales after the DS released. Granted, the 3DS is no GBA, but the Vita ain't no PSP either.

What I think is quite interesting to note, is that the both handhelds have their own demographics, or so the sales numbers of the DS and PSP would imply, and this might be a valid reason for the PSV to over take the 3DS in weekly sales numbers when Nintendo's next handheld is released. Granted, it might only be for a short while if Nintendo manages to cater to the Vita audience as well (which very well might be the case if the NX is a hybrid Fusion). y

True. I would like to know how many japanese developers will bring Vita ports to the NX. If the NX is powerful and easy to develop for, they could bring dozens of games to the NX on the first year by ports alone.

I'm really wondering...

What's your LT prediction for 3DS?

If the NX comes out next year, 60 million units aprox. If it comes in 2017, 65m aprox.



You know it deserves the GOTY.

Come join The 2018 Obscure Game Monthly Review Thread.

Darwinianevolution said:
tak13 said:

I'm really wondering...

What's your LT prediction for 3DS?

If the NX comes out next year, 60 million units aprox. If it comes in 2017, 65m aprox.


I suspected that you have a really low prediction for 3DS and that you believe it won't have any legs...

If NX comes in 2016  and your 3ds prediction is at 60m... There is a huge problem!

Becaue it has to stop selling to end up to 60m, if NX will be released in 2016...

 

Also you ignore the forecast of Nintendo about 59.6 units shipped as of March 31h 2015, or 7.6m for the fiscal year,  it's at 54.34 as of FY15Q2 and have shipped 2.28m, FY15 Q1+Q2 VS 2m FY14 Q1+Q3...

Oh guys do some research in order to make a prediction, It will be a suprising outcome if 3DS falls ashort 70m, it will definately reach it, because it is on track to do it..

The gap with gba is 4m now... If you don't know it, Japan, covers considerably of the deficit from  gap of 3ds vs gba in NA, as for others+europe, they are equal!

Where do you base such a lowballing prediction?



We don't even know if 40k a week is accurate, given how off the Vita's numbers apparently are on VGC. So with that in mind, probably never. Even if it does, we'll never know in all likelihood, so it's a wash either way.



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tak13 said:
Darwinianevolution said:
tak13 said:

I'm really wondering...

What's your LT prediction for 3DS?

If the NX comes out next year, 60 million units aprox. If it comes in 2017, 65m aprox.


I suspected that you have a really low prediction for 3DS and that you believe it won't have any legs...

If NX comes in 2016  and your 3ds prediction is at 60m... There is a huge problem!

Becaue it has to stop selling to end up to 60m, if NX will be released in 2016...

 

Also you ignore the forecast of Nintendo about 59.6 units shipped as of March 31h 2015, or 7.6m for the fiscal year,  it's at 54.34 as of FY15Q2 and have shipped 2.28m, FY15 Q1+Q2 VS 2m FY14 Q1+Q3...

Oh guys do some research in order to make a prediction, I will be a suprising outcome if 3DS falls ashort 70m, it will definetely reach it, because it is on track to it..

The gap with gba is 4m now... If you don't know it, Japan, covers considerably of the deficit from  gap of 3ds vs gba in NA, as for others+europe, they are equal!

Where do you base such a lowballing prediction?

I didn't know the shipment numbers :P  I'm thinking that, with the handheld market shrinking, the amount of 3DS sold after the NX launch won't be that big. The GBA and the DS had a decent potential, and sold well during its successor's lifespam because handhelds weren't hurt by mobile yet. The handheld audience (3DS+Vita) will quickly go to the NX because there won't be any other option for dedicated handheld gaming. And most of the people who wanted to buy a 3DS, either they already got it, or they will wait to see if the NX is BC with the 3DS, at least with the handheld part. It would be easy, the 3DS and the N3DS are very underpowered compared to today's hardware standards. The only thing that can make the 3DS hardware resist years after the NX is a big pricecut of the N3DS model, which it will probably happen, but not soon enough to make a big impact.

I would love to have some demografic statistics of the 3DS userbase, it would be great to make predictions like this.



You know it deserves the GOTY.

Come join The 2018 Obscure Game Monthly Review Thread.