Never

Shadow1980 said: tak13 said: You need to check your data for some errors... ;) GBA still sold 5m after DS lite release and ds 3m after 3ds release.... I've been very meticulous with my data collection, and here's what the numbers show: The initial release of the DS had an immediately impact on GBA sales in both the U.S. and Japan (there is no reliable yearly or monthly sales data prior to last generation for Europe, but I imagine things were about the same there). It was more pronounced in Japan, as sales declined by 60% YoY in 2005 and had nearly vanished in 2006. But even in the U.S they declined by over 38% YoY in 2005. Once the DS Lite came out the GBA began to diminish even quicker. While total 2007 sales for the GBA are uncertain because either the NPD stopped tracking it or publicly available NPD numbers just stopped showing up, at the rate it was declining and at the rate the DS was growing, it was probably dead at that point, and it was discontinued in 2008. Overall, post-DS Lite sales of the GBA didn't amount to much in the face of its lifetime sales. Overall, GBA shipments from the '06-'07 fiscal year to the time it was discontinued amounted to less than 8% of the lifetime total. For all intents and purposes, it was dead sales-wise by 2007. The DS also died quickly once the 3DS was released, and a negligible amount of its lifetime sales (about 5%) were in 2012 and later. Compare that to the PS2, which managed decent sales well after the PS3 was released. Roughly a third of its lifetime sales were from 2006 and later. In fact, in the U.S. the PS2 and GBA were almost on even terms sales-wise from 2001 to 2004, but in 2005 the GBA began to fall way behind the PS2. Not just the PS2, but also the NES, Genesis, SNES, and PS1 all had decent to strong legs, continuing to sell decently well into the next generation, and they got that way by having a decent amount of support after their successors came out. Nintendo's handhelds are more like their consoles since the N64. Like the N64, GC, and Wii, the GB, GBA, and DS all had weak legs. They were essentially abandoned within a year or two of their successor's release, and as a consequence sales began to rapidly dry up. Did you see the discussion between me and the writer? He claims that if NX releases in 2016, 3ds will end up at 60m, you find that rational? Maybe not 60 million, but I do find it rational to suppose that depending on when its successor comes out it could end up falling well short of the GBA's lifetime sales. If its successor doesn't come out until late 2017, then it could still maybe, possibly, potentially get up to 75 million, but a mid to late 2016 release could put its lifetime sales to somewhere in the 65-70 million range. Nintendo handhelds keep selling good amounts three years after their successor arrival... Again, some seemingly big number like "5 million" might seem like a lot, but compared to overall lifetime sales, that doesn't amount to much. Nintendo handhelds always experience rapid drop-offs in sales after their successors are released. The same fate will almost certainly befall the 3DS once its successor comes out.

Eh, I don't predict that it will match GBA sales...

I just said that I find irrational a prediction of 60m if NX releases in 2016, when's that it's almost the forecast of Nintedo by 31th March 2016, even if Nintendos misses the forecast (while so far 3DS shipments are fairly yoy up), that this can't happen in a great extend...The legs of 3DS can't be only 1m... :P I see more a situation like gba->ds than ds-> 3ds, with 3ds->NXds? I explained why, let me not repeat it!

I just said that I can't see 3DS falling ashort of 70m. Not GBA!:p

Oh you can see it potentially reaching 75m if it doesn't get replaced earlier than 2017 (I believe that it won't), a little bit hard due to the USA but I endorse that, so far it's still trending half of DS.

Maybe a price drop can help it, let's not forget, it got only one in 2011... And it's price rose up again with the release of the revisions 3ds xl, New 3ds/xl

I have a prediction but I won't reveal it, since I have to reasearch it further, but my point is no way 3DS under 70m no matter if NX replaces it in 2016 (that's not a desire, it's the outcome of an analysis) ...

As for your data, I thought that you were using global stats not just USA/JAPAN....