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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Nintendo Shares Level Out After $4 Billion Drop in Company Value

VitroBahllee said:


Yeah, but the article also makes it clear investors were underwhelmed with the lame looking 'game,' which you've been arguing against in other threads.


Nope in the other thread this is flat out what I've told you, profits were speculated to be on the way due to an entry in mobile which has now been delayed. As he pointed out the value of stocks depends on expected profits so a delay in these profits means the price would drop meaning a number of current holders weren'te going to make their speculated return. The smart move is to sell while the stock is still overweight before the market corrects itself to reflect the speculated profit not turning up, that way you make money because as he pointed out stocks are short term (in other words they fluctuate like I told you).

You argued in the other thread about the quality of the app as a game which investors don't care about, they care about making money and were hoping for a microtransaction fest. In the other thread I said the stock was going to even out as well something you argued against, take notes from that guy quoted he has an idea of how stocks operate.



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VitroBahllee said:
I have been trying to tell people that the nature of the app is a big part of this drop, not just the delay. Nice to see it spelled out for the more 'unconvincable' folk out there.


they also missed their earnings estimates which contributed to the drop as well- but not as much as the delay and nature of the mobile game



I'm almost certain that the loss were from investor that were expecting a Mario game with microtransactions out the ass.



I may start buying. I think they'll do ok with mobile.



Wyrdness said:
VitroBahllee said:


Yeah, but the article also makes it clear investors were underwhelmed with the lame looking 'game,' which you've been arguing against in other threads.


Nope in the other thread this is flat out what I've told you, profits were speculated to be on the way due to an entry in mobile which has now been delayed. As he pointed out the value of stocks depends on expected profits so a delay in these profits means the price would drop meaning a number of current holders weren'te going to make their speculated return. The smart move is to sell while the stock is still overweight before the market corrects itself to reflect the speculated profit not turning up, that way you make money because as he pointed out stocks are short term (in other words they fluctuate like I told you).

You argued in the other thread about the quality of the app as a game which investors don't care about, they care about making money and were hoping for a microtransaction fest. In the other thread I said the stock was going to even out as well something you argued against, take notes from that guy quoted he has an idea of how stocks operate.

The "market" does care about the game because if it does not have confidence in the produc/game that is just as bad or worse than a delay- If the product the investors were counting on does not sell like the had hoped that not only delays profits and/or revenue growth it can cause losses (or less profits) 

So to say investos don t care about the game is wrong-  of course the care-

Additonally i have not seen any article or quote from stock analyst, investors ect that said they expcted Mario and micro transactions



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the delay in itself is not the reason for the drop in the stock, not for the most part. Don't tell me stocks are not based on a long term outlook when amazon is trading at 906 p/e while walmart is 12 p/e. You think investors want their money now? Then why do they allow amazon to make almost no profit for decades? The market will sell off based on comments by the fed that are purely speculation of interest rate increases that might happen sometime in the future maybe and will increase very gradually for years before they reach any significant level. The market prices in the endgame far before you get there.
What the delay did was hurt the confidence in Nintendo, and i suspect they were expecting more of miitomo. That game is way too Japan oriented for investors to get too excited about.



currently playing: Skyward Sword, Mario Sunshine, Xenoblade Chronicles X

What the drop has done is give a glorious opportunity to add more to my long position.  I will be adding another 1500 tomorrow morning.



Wyrdness said:
VitroBahllee said:


Yeah, but the article also makes it clear investors were underwhelmed with the lame looking 'game,' which you've been arguing against in other threads.


Nope in the other thread this is flat out what I've told you, profits were speculated to be on the way due to an entry in mobile which has now been delayed. As he pointed out the value of stocks depends on expected profits so a delay in these profits means the price would drop meaning a number of current holders weren'te going to make their speculated return. The smart move is to sell while the stock is still overweight before the market corrects itself to reflect the speculated profit not turning up, that way you make money because as he pointed out stocks are short term (in other words they fluctuate like I told you).

You argued in the other thread about the quality of the app as a game which investors don't care about, they care about making money and were hoping for a microtransaction fest. In the other thread I said the stock was going to even out as well something you argued against, take notes from that guy quoted he has an idea of how stocks operate.

It's a knee jerk reaction by some investors.  It has created a nice opportunity to get into the stock at a lower price. The overall value dropped by something like 4.5 billion dollars on the delay of a mobile game.  Last time i checked most mobile games don't generate 4.5 billion dollars so it's clearly an over reaction.  I believe the stock will see at least 10% increase from now until the end of the year.



Dunban67 said:

The "market" does care about the game because if it does not have confidence in the produc/game that is just as bad or worse than a delay- If the product the investors were counting on does not sell like the had hoped that not only delays profits and/or revenue growth it can cause losses (or less profits) 

So to say investos don t care about the game is wrong-  of course the care-

Additonally i have not seen any article or quote from stock analyst, investors ect that said they expcted Mario and micro transactions


No they don't care about the game they never did, all that matters is the money it pulls in investors don't invest based on emotion they look at fundamentals like I explained to you, quality doesn't bring in the most money the products structure does and things like Mario with microtransactions is what investors were hoping for. This is why when Nintendo announced that Mario variant of the Puzzles and Dragons game and people thought it was a mobile title the stock exploded.

What they want is big IPs with microtransactions.



Wyrdness said:
Dunban67 said:

The "market" does care about the game because if it does not have confidence in the produc/game that is just as bad or worse than a delay- If the product the investors were counting on does not sell like the had hoped that not only delays profits and/or revenue growth it can cause losses (or less profits) 

So to say investos don t care about the game is wrong-  of course the care-

Additonally i have not seen any article or quote from stock analyst, investors ect that said they expcted Mario and micro transactions


No they don't care about the game they never did, all that matters is the money it pulls in investors don't invest based on emotion they look at fundamentals like I explained to you, quality doesn't bring in the most money the products structure does and things like Mario with microtransactions is what investors were hoping for. This is why when Nintendo announced that Mario variant of the Puzzles and Dragons game and people thought it was a mobile title the stock exploded.

What they want is big IPs with microtransactions.

I did not think i would need to spell it out any more clearly but the marketability/sales ability of the game equals potential revenue/potential profits

Thwe market trades on a forward basis of what it thinks can/may happen in the future and when it may happen-  a key product the market hopes will bring in revenue growth and or profits in the future that is disapointing to the maret causes a drop as much as a delay perhaps more-  

The delay and the sales/marketablity (real or percieved) and the earnings miss combined hurt the confidence of investors -   

PS:  When I say investors "care" about the game it is in terms of thier confidence in it not weather or not they may like to play it themselves-   They "care" very much just not in the same manner a gamer or Nintendo fan may "care"