By using this site, you agree to our Privacy Policy and our Terms of Use. Close

Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Nintendo Shares Level Out After $4 Billion Drop in Company Value

Pavolink said:
Dr.Henry_Killinger said:
Ka-pi96 said:
Delay a mobile game = $4 billion loss in value.

Yeah, stocks are silly

Delays inspire a lack of confidence, especially when this mobile game strategy was supposed to turn things around.

Expecting delays, encourages the poor planning that leads to them. Delays should be penalized, especially in this case. Where it's not just a game delay, its the delay of the entire mobile strategy if you will, a false/late start.

And as anyone who has ever run track before knows, if you have a false or late start,

Can I quote you? Your speech about delays is perfect and I agree with every word you posted.

Feel free to do so.



In this day and age, with the Internet, ignorance is a choice! And they're still choosing Ignorance! - Dr. Filthy Frank

Around the Network
Alkibiádēs said:
Mummelmann said:
There are two possible conclusions to take from this; either the stock market is bribed by the competition and/or unfair, illogical and useless, or; the announcement was a negative double whammy in being both about a delay of a much, much needed investment boost in a new and more easily profitable sector of gaming paired with the software itself being generally underwhelming.

Personally, since I never bought the famed Nintendo conspiracy that many seem to cling to since we wielded bow and arrow and wore pelts on our backs during winter, I choose to believe the latter and chalk this down to pure market logic and response, just like every other downturn since the announcement and release of the Wii U and the decline in dedicated handhelds set in.

The stockmarket is very volatile. Such short term changes don't say a whole lot. I can guarantee you that by the time they announce their next smartphone games to stock will rise a lot. Your post really makes no sense at all as nobody has claimed your first scenario. A lot of investors are driven by FUD, which means they're not very good investors to begin with. That's reality: only very few people are good at investing money. Now's a good time to buy Nintendo stock and sell it when they announce Mario is coming to smartphones.


I know it's volatile and I also know that short term changes aren't the main thing to keep eyes on. However, many times when a company makes mistakes, people blame the market and not the company, with some comments (not only in this thread), it seems that this is the case here as well and that was my entire point.

The whole thing was just bad news. The stock is likely to crawl back up and then surge at the next positive bit, I remember how much it grew after the deNA partnership announcement, it's likely just a matter of time before such an event again. Poor choices/announcements = market responds  negatively, good choices/announcement = market respongs positively, but some don't seem to understand that.



Wyrdness said:
Dunban67 said:

The "market" does care about the game because if it does not have confidence in the produc/game that is just as bad or worse than a delay- If the product the investors were counting on does not sell like the had hoped that not only delays profits and/or revenue growth it can cause losses (or less profits) 

So to say investos don t care about the game is wrong-  of course the care-

Additonally i have not seen any article or quote from stock analyst, investors ect that said they expcted Mario and micro transactions


No they don't care about the game they never did, all that matters is the money it pulls in investors don't invest based on emotion they look at fundamentals like I explained to you, quality doesn't bring in the most money the products structure does and things like Mario with microtransactions is what investors were hoping for. This is why when Nintendo announced that Mario variant of the Puzzles and Dragons game and people thought it was a mobile title the stock exploded.

What they want is big IPs with microtransactions.


Emotions are what drive the stock market. The selloff of Nintendo stock was emotional. Had other investors done their research they would not have sold their Nintendo stock. Miitomo is going to be a very profitable game just like Tomodauchi life except more protable due to the market size they are tapping into. After the sellout i added more to my position in Nintendo. The company is going to vastly increase their revenues thanks to mobile and it isn't unrealistic to expect the share to appreciated by 300% over the coarse of the next few years. It may even appreciate more than that if nx produces more profits and 3ds/wiiu but you can assume anything when you don't fully know yet what their plans are. However, in the mobile space it's a new business and I think you can assume Nintendo will do quite well in this market based on a variety of reasons.



bowserthedog said:
Wyrdness said:


No they don't care about the game they never did, all that matters is the money it pulls in investors don't invest based on emotion they look at fundamentals like I explained to you, quality doesn't bring in the most money the products structure does and things like Mario with microtransactions is what investors were hoping for. This is why when Nintendo announced that Mario variant of the Puzzles and Dragons game and people thought it was a mobile title the stock exploded.

What they want is big IPs with microtransactions.


Emotions are what drive the stock market. The selloff of Nintendo stock was emotional. Had other investors done their research they would not have sold their Nintendo stock. Miitomo is going to be a very profitable game just like Tomodauchi life except more protable due to the market size they are tapping into. After the sellout i added more to my position in Nintendo. The company is going to vastly increase their revenues thanks to mobile and it isn't unrealistic to expect the share to appreciated by 300% over the coarse of the next few years. It may even appreciate more than that if nx produces more profits and 3ds/wiiu but you can assume anything when you don't fully know yet what their plans are. However, in the mobile space it's a new business and I think you can assume Nintendo will do quite well in this market based on a variety of reasons.

WTF? It's free to play with microtransactions! You think its profitability is going to be 'just like' a game you can't spell (TomoDACHi Life) that sold 4 million at $40 a pop? Why? Just because Nintendo?

That's what I keep hearing from the reality distortion field crowd.

"Why?" 

"Because Nintendo."

 

bowserthedog said:

. It may even appreciate more than that if nx produces more profits and 3ds/wiiu but you can assume anything when you don't fully know yet what their plans are. However, in the mobile space it's a new business and I think you can assume Nintendo will do quite well in this market based on a variety of reasons.

Yes, and they have given us no reason to assume they are going to do anything like what investors expect.

Yes, because reasons.



bowserthedog said:

Emotions are what drive the stock market. That doesn't mean they are wrong. When you are late on a product, you have failed to deliver on time. When you fail to deliver on time, how can you be trusted to deliver other things on time? And if you can't be trusted, why investors trust their money with you? Answer: They won't they will sell, and when they sell, stock prices go down.

 

The selloff of Nintendo stock was emotional. As well as a logical response. As I said before, the delay inspires a lack of confidence. Again why, would you trust your money with someone you aren't confident in.

 

Had other investors done their research they would not have sold their Nintendo stock. Why? What research? Nintendo's other delays? Where they had profitable games? Or Nintendo's handheld profits? Unfortunately, neither of them have anything to do with how a game will perform in the mobile environment as a free to play game. This was the first time, so no information exists yet. The remaining investors are trust Nintendo on this either on the benefit of the doubt or on Nintendo's other offerings.

 

Miitomo is going to be a very profitable game just like Tomodauchi life except more protable due to the market size they are tapping into. After the sellout i added more to my position in Nintendo. Tomodachi life is completely different from miitomo. Different markets and Different revenue strategy. So based on Tomadachi Life, you can't make any reasonable conclusions on Miitomo, let alone its expected profits. Not to mention marketsize alone is never an indicator of performance, case in point, the Wii U does worse in the US (A bigger market) compared to Japan (A Smaller Market). If you actually understood the Mobile market, you'd realize the competition is on another order of magnitude than on even handhelds.

                     Assuming, interbrand competition i.e one nintendo game vs another:

                                     Miitomo will be competiting with about 500,000 other mobile games(App Store), another 1,000,000 other apps(App Store), and then 1.9 million apps in the Google Play store. That about 4 million apps

                                   Meanwhile, Tomadachi life competes withabout 652 3ds games and 1149 Vita games (Lol turns out Vita has more games than 3DS)

            Essentially, its not looking good for Miitomo

http://www.statista.com/statistics/276623/number-of-apps-available-in-leading-app-stores/

http://www.pocketgamer.biz/metrics/app-store/

 

 

The company is going to vastly increase their revenues thanks to mobile and it isn't unrealistic to expect the share to appreciated by 300% over the coarse of the next few years. Its pretty unrealistic to depend on mobile to be the major factor, in that 300% jump, but since the time period is nebulous, possibility is still there.

 

It may even appreciate more than that if nx produces more profits and 3ds/wiiu but you can assume anything when you don't fully know yet what their plans are. However, in the mobile space it's a new business and I think you can assume Nintendo will do quite well in this market based on a variety of reasons. You need to give those reasons, because I just showed how the potential most likely reasons, won't ammount to anything.

 



In this day and age, with the Internet, ignorance is a choice! And they're still choosing Ignorance! - Dr. Filthy Frank

Around the Network

Nintendo is going to make a lot of money with smartphone games. A delay of a few months really doesn't mean much in the long term scheme of things, it's not as if they are making iPhones/Android phones and have to support the entire ecosystem basically on their own like they do with consoles/handhelds, so I don't see the big deal.



Soundwave said:
Nintendo is going to make a lot of money with smartphone games. A delay of a few months really doesn't mean much in the long term scheme of things, it's not as if they are making iPhones/Android phones and have to support the entire ecosystem basically on their own like they do with consoles/handhelds, so I don't see the big deal.


The big deal is they have botched yet another new platform launch and underwhelmed even with what they will eventually deliver. Like the 3DS and Wii U launches. They haven't done anything that really wowed people for a LONG time.



VitroBahllee said:
Soundwave said:
Nintendo is going to make a lot of money with smartphone games. A delay of a few months really doesn't mean much in the long term scheme of things, it's not as if they are making iPhones/Android phones and have to support the entire ecosystem basically on their own like they do with consoles/handhelds, so I don't see the big deal.


The big deal is they have botched yet another new platform launch and underwhelmed even with what they will eventually deliver. Like the 3DS and Wii U launches. They haven't done anything that really wowed people for a LONG time.

Actually, the delay it to prevent botching it. 



Massimus - "Trump already has democrat support."

SpokenTruth said:
VitroBahllee said:
Soundwave said:
Nintendo is going to make a lot of money with smartphone games. A delay of a few months really doesn't mean much in the long term scheme of things, it's not as if they are making iPhones/Android phones and have to support the entire ecosystem basically on their own like they do with consoles/handhelds, so I don't see the big deal.


The big deal is they have botched yet another new platform launch and underwhelmed even with what they will eventually deliver. Like the 3DS and Wii U launches. They haven't done anything that really wowed people for a LONG time.

Actually, the delay it to prevent botching it. 

Delaying their mobile debut only to release 'Miitomo' as their sole debut offering is botching it.



VitroBahllee said:
bowserthedog said:

WTF? It's free to play with microtransactions! You think its profitability is going to be 'just like' a game you can't spell (TomoDACHi Life) that sold 4 million at $40 a pop? Why? Just because Nintendo?

That's what I keep hearing from the reality distortion field crowd.

"Why?" 

"Because Nintendo."

 

bowserthedog said:

. It may even appreciate more than that if nx produces more profits and 3ds/wiiu but you can assume anything when you don't fully know yet what their plans are. However, in the mobile space it's a new business and I think you can assume Nintendo will do quite well in this market based on a variety of reasons.

Yes, and they have given us no reason to assume they are going to do anything like what investors expect.

Yes, because reasons.



Right..  But it's Nintendo being Nintendo. The average investor isn't well educated towards the way Nintendo does this. It doesn't matter if they do things the way investors wants. Next year when they start announceing the revenue they are getting from mobile investors will heavily purchase nintendo stock.