Burek said:
SWORDF1SH said:
You could be right but I just can't see it. 200k for the first 3 weeks is beyond a flop. I kinda agree with your analysis but it's stuff like in your analysis that lead me to my prediction of very average sales.
If 200k does happen, that would be insane, a bigger flop than Evolve. The biggest flop in a while.
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Why is it improbable to be a bigger flop than Evolve? Evolve released with no competition at all, it was actually the very first game released in EU in 2015, second in the US (Dying Light). It then had very little exclusive competition from The Order the following week. It also released on a system with a bigger install base.
TR has nothing like that in its favor: fierce competition, a very strong exclusive brand sharing the platform (Halo), two of the most recognizable brands worldwide releasing around it (CoD, Star Wars), smaller install base (no revenue from a ~30 million install base).
Evolve even had a significantly larger marketing push.
Maybe TR will actually manage to sell well, but it is far from being a sure thing that it will launch better than Evolve.
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I think it's unlikely but I also respect your opinion. For me it doesn't matter how many big games their are, 200k (3 weeks sales) for Tomb Raider released in the holiday period just seems way too low. Of course big releases will reduce sales but we are talking about a period were the Xbox One can sell around 1M consoles and millions of software will be sold on a weekly basis. COD, Fallout, Star Wars and even Halo will take the bulk of the sales but this doens't mean that TR as to flop as bad as you say.
Can Tomb Raider flop as hard as you say, sure. Not doubting it can happen, it's just insane if it does. It's just our opinions at the end of the day. You hold more weight to some factors than I do and vice versa.
