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Forums - Microsoft - Halo 5 will sell 7.3 Million this year (Prediction)

 

Will it?

Yes 126 10.05%
 
No 438 34.93%
 
Maybe 93 7.42%
 
You're crazy 317 25.28%
 
I don't know 24 1.91%
 
Halo is dead 225 17.94%
 
team chief 24 1.91%
 
team locke 7 0.56%
 
Total:1,254
jason1637 on 24 October 2015
CosmicSex said:
jason1637 said:


8.8 is way top much that would be like the fastest selling game of all time.


These predictions are redicilous and push the absolute limit of what is possible.   The main thing that is illogical about these sky high predictions is that they are expecting attach rates far beyond any other title in the series.   Guys, the best way to make a prdiction about sales is to look at past attach rates and apply it to the Xbox One's current (albeit unknown)  sales numbers.  Even if the Xbox One hits 16 million by year end, 8.8 million is still over 50% attachment.  Even if the Xbox One sells 17 milion by year end, the attach rate would still be over 50%.  


halo 3 sold 6.8million on a 15 million install base.



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GodOfPeace3 on 24 October 2015

I'd say 2.5 million for Halo 5. It's just not what it used to be. At the most 3.2 mil.



hudsoniscool on 24 October 2015
Insidb said:
hudsoniscool said:


That doesn't make sense at all. Incuding digital there both over 10 million. And since 4 is newer it likely has a lot more digital sales, so it's almost certain that it outsold reach. If u don't want to count digital that's fine cause 4 is still outpacing reach. If the trend continues 5 should hit 10 million, I'd include digital tho cause it's so big now. 

 

As far as my guesses go, 3.1 million fw, 6 million by end of the year. Anything under 2.5 million fw and 5 million end of the year will be very disappointing. I attribute these lower numbers to the low install base, it will sell well over time more like 3 cause it's early in the gen and people will buy it as they purchase consoles. I highly doubt it will be front loaded like the later games in the series.

Don't get me wrong: I expect it to do well, but trends are trends, even if not wholly predictive. If we don't go on them, however, we're just throwing numbers against a wall. As another commenter said, those numbers indicate ~50% attach rate, which is simply unheard of, for Halo or any recent gen game. People need to add some reasonability to their expectations.

 

The main part of my post was stating that I believe the "trend" u mentioned was wrong. 12 million to 10 to 10 doesn't go to 7. It would be 9 million+. And as far as my prediction goes(and others predictions) attach ratio isn't the be all end all. Halo 3 launched on a very similar amount of consoles. It had a fw of 3.8 million and end of year 6.8 million. So my prediction of 3.1 and 6 sounds good to me posibly a little low even. 



Halo MCC will sell 5+ million copies(including digital)

halo 5 will sell 10 million copies(including digital)

x1 will pass ps4 in USA, and UK.

StephanieCurry on 24 October 2015

5-7 million seems appropriate



jason1637 on 24 October 2015
Skeetys said:

I'd say 2.5 million for Halo 5. It's just not what it used to be. At the most 3.2 mil.


Are you joking?



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Insidb on 24 October 2015
hudsoniscool said:
Insidb said:

Don't get me wrong: I expect it to do well, but trends are trends, even if not wholly predictive. If we don't go on them, however, we're just throwing numbers against a wall. As another commenter said, those numbers indicate ~50% attach rate, which is simply unheard of, for Halo or any recent gen game. People need to add some reasonability to their expectations.

 

The main part of my post was stating that I believe the "trend" u mentioned was wrong. 12 million to 10 to 10 doesn't go to 7. It would be 9 million+. And as far as my prediction goes(and others predictions) attach ratio isn't the be all end all. Halo 3 launched on a very similar amount of consoles. It had a fw of 3.8 million and end of year 6.8 million. So my prediction of 3.1 and 6 sounds good to me posibly a little low even. 

It very well may be; if the downward trend is indicative, then sales will be great, just not as good as previous entries. The narrative seems to say this: 1) As X360 sales significantly increased (from 2007-2012), Halo attach rates significantly decreased (75%, 20%, and 13%, respectively), 2) H5 X1 has a massively smaller install base than the last entry on X360 (~13.5M vs. 74M), and the MCC collection stumbled out of the gate and kept stumbling. If we base our expectations on those trends, then we would shpuld not expect H5 to sell in it's first 3 months what its predecessors sold LTD. The big "but" here is that H5 may be the "it" game that X1 owners have been waiting for, preventing a Titanfall-esque disappointment.



Guitarguy on 24 October 2015

7.3 million in just over 2 months.... On a console that is lagging behind it's main competitor... Whose previous entry did not do nearly as well on the 360 which had a much larger install base(despite universal positive reviews)... After the MCC debacle... With an over priced bundle.... With stiff 3rd party competition(COD, Battlefront, Assassin's Creed, Fallout 4...)...

Is Halo 5 the new Minecraft?



Insidb on 24 October 2015
Guitarguy said:

7.3 million in just over 2 months.... On a console that is lagging behind it's main competitor... Whose previous entry did not do nearly as well on the 360 which had a much larger install base(despite universal positive reviews)... After the MCC debacle... With an over priced bundle.... With stiff 3rd party competition(COD, Battlefront, Assassin's Creed, Fallout 4...)...

Is Halo 5 the new Minecraft?

It will be a success, but Destiny sold 5M copies 5W on twice as many consoles with what must be termed as "insane" hype." It's only at 8M now, on an install base that is three times as large as the one X1 has now.



Guitarguy on 24 October 2015
Insidb said:
Guitarguy said:

7.3 million in just over 2 months.... On a console that is lagging behind it's main competitor... Whose previous entry did not do nearly as well on the 360 which had a much larger install base(despite universal positive reviews)... After the MCC debacle... With an over priced bundle.... With stiff 3rd party competition(COD, Battlefront, Assassin's Creed, Fallout 4...)...

Is Halo 5 the new Minecraft?

It will be a success, but Destiny sold 5M copies 5W on twice as many consoles with what must be termed as "insane" hype." It's only at 8M now, on an install base that is three times as large as the one X1 has now.


No doubt it will be a hit. But 6-7 million in 2 months is stretching in my humble opinion. I think Destiny actually got way more hype than Halo 5 has. Probably because of Sony/Activision's push for it, Bungie going multiplatform, the pseudo MMO first person RPG angle...



Insidb on 24 October 2015
Guitarguy said:
Insidb said:

It will be a success, but Destiny sold 5M copies 5W on twice as many consoles with what must be termed as "insane" hype." It's only at 8M now, on an install base that is three times as large as the one X1 has now.


No doubt it will be a hit. But 6-7 million in 2 months is stretching in my humble opinion. I think Destiny actually got way more hype than Halo 5 has. Probably because of Sony/Activision's push for it, Bungie going multiplatform, the pseudo MMO first person RPG angle...

And riding on the coattails' Halo's success.