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Forums - Microsoft - Halo 5 will sell 7.3 Million this year (Prediction)

 

Will it?

Yes 126 10.05%
 
No 438 34.93%
 
Maybe 93 7.42%
 
You're crazy 317 25.28%
 
I don't know 24 1.91%
 
Halo is dead 225 17.94%
 
team chief 24 1.91%
 
team locke 7 0.56%
 
Total:1,254
DonFerrari on 29 December 2015
AsGryffynn said:
DonFerrari said:
AsGryffynn said:

Where the hell did I even said that? No, I implied that the XONE has an attach rate ABOVE 20 percent, not that the PS4 is under that...

As you said, CEA aligns marketshare for the US. Since it's the only territory where the XONE is performing well, it's alright by me. Digital attach rates for the PS4 might surpass those of the XONE there, but all things considered, where the amount of owners is close, the XONE sells more digital numbers, whereas the PS4 owners prefer physical...

As for the industry, you're referring to this?

http://www.mcast.com/marketcast-study-reveals-console-gamers-resisting-shift-to-digital-downloads/

And this is the average for the INDUSTRY. Not specific consoles. The Wii U and last gen consoles are included there as well... 

As for market research vs fact. I hate to point out the obvious, but no one has facts. At best, you have the numbers of a handful of companies. They are big on sales, but there are lots of other publishers that have not spoken out, or I can highlight the fact that Halo 5 is the best selling digital game of XBL... even the fully digital Ori and the Blind Forest fell behind... and that's not a small number...

You were answered on that... the survey showed that more people have at least bought digital once (I have several time) not that digital versus retail have improved as much as you infer (The only digital games I bought instead of retail were dirty cheap, wouldn't ever pay more to be medialess).

Of course, I never said otherwise. However, it was useful for representing the average picture in each console...

you are trying to connect to far points... the only thing I can conclude for certain is the obvious that sales improved digitally.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

Around the Network
Nogamez on 29 December 2015

Guess this prediction failed then!



AsGryffynn on 29 December 2015
DonFerrari said:
AsGryffynn said:
DonFerrari said:
AsGryffynn said:

Where the hell did I even said that? No, I implied that the XONE has an attach rate ABOVE 20 percent, not that the PS4 is under that...

As you said, CEA aligns marketshare for the US. Since it's the only territory where the XONE is performing well, it's alright by me. Digital attach rates for the PS4 might surpass those of the XONE there, but all things considered, where the amount of owners is close, the XONE sells more digital numbers, whereas the PS4 owners prefer physical...

As for the industry, you're referring to this?

http://www.mcast.com/marketcast-study-reveals-console-gamers-resisting-shift-to-digital-downloads/

And this is the average for the INDUSTRY. Not specific consoles. The Wii U and last gen consoles are included there as well... 

As for market research vs fact. I hate to point out the obvious, but no one has facts. At best, you have the numbers of a handful of companies. They are big on sales, but there are lots of other publishers that have not spoken out, or I can highlight the fact that Halo 5 is the best selling digital game of XBL... even the fully digital Ori and the Blind Forest fell behind... and that's not a small number...

You were answered on that... the survey showed that more people have at least bought digital once (I have several time) not that digital versus retail have improved as much as you infer (The only digital games I bought instead of retail were dirty cheap, wouldn't ever pay more to be medialess).

Of course, I never said otherwise. However, it was useful for representing the average picture in each console...

you are trying to connect to far points... the only thing I can conclude for certain is the obvious that sales improved digitally.

Have you forgotten what we saw the last page? The link I provided said digital attach rates are up, not that physical sales are down. When you use both links, it paints the console and average picture. Both can allow us to infer the estimated attach rates of both.





tabbi on 29 December 2015
SWORDF1SH said:
Ali_16x said:

 

Lol? Where did you get that Xbox One has higher digital attach rates than the PS4? Are you just making this up to downplay PS4 sales? That's what it seems like.

I would like to know where this "fact" came from also.

A couple of crazy facts about digital spending;

  • Amazon top 3 selling gaming items for the year are PSN cards.
  • The top 20 for 2015 contains 6 PSN vouchers = $290
  • The XB1 has 3 vouchers in the top 20 for 2015 = $95
  • In the Gaming Digital hourly charts, 9 PS4 games show up before the first XB1 game at 42nd (Halo 5)

Make of it what you will!

a couple of facts about digital spending and amazon digital voucher

xbox live voucher vary form $10 to $100 with 12 different purchchase options
psn voucher vary from $10 to $100 with only 6 different purchase options and 2 of them (60 and 75) are new and were only released may 2015, while the other 4 were 2011


digital houry charts is as usesless as overall hourly
back on black friday, when many xb1 digital downlods were offered for a pricecut, 5 or more xb1 games showed up before the first ps4 game
this does not tell us anything

ubisoft confirmed in theire investor conference call, that watchdogs (a "playstation" game) had a higher digital attachrate on xbox one.
the overall next gen attachrate was about 10% and ps4 was close to 10%, while xb1 was close to 11%
ofc the "always on and required internet connection" console has a higher digital attachrate...

also. the digital attachrate depends heavily on the region. it's highest in the us and lowest in jp, while europe is in between.
this was confimed and said several times by all major pubishers and famitsu and media create show the same.
so lets just do some easy math, where i use some reasonable, but mainly easy round numbers.

digital attachrate
us 30%
eu 20%
jp 10%

installbase % of ww overall sales
US:
ps4 40% xb1 70%
EU:
ps4 50% xb1 30%
JP:
ps4 10% xb1 0%

overall attachrate:
ps4: 0,4*0,3+0,5*0,2+0,1*0,1 = 0,23 or 23% overall dd attachrate
xb1: 0,7*0,3+0,3*0,2 = 0,27 or 27% overall dd attachrate

 

 

edit: on topic
i believe halo 5 will be around 3.5 - 4m at the end of year including digital
and that's not bad, neither great and no bomba

just a good selling game in decline

 

 





SWORDF1SH on 29 December 2015
AsGryffynn said:
SWORDF1SH said:

Sounded like you were saying that XB1 games had a better digital attach rate than the rest. So sorry if you didn't imply

BTW that link has nothing to do about digital/physical split per game, it just says that the digital attach rate has risen overal. This is probably due to the quality and quantity of digital only games being added weekly has improved over time on console.

I don't doubt that the digital/physical split per game improves in favor of digital over the years and I don't doubt that Halo could have up to 30% in digital sales. What I do hate that all of a sudden digital must be used to justify the Halo sales and it's never been so important. It's treated like it's the only game to have a digital version and the only game ever that could be pre-loaded before launch. All we've heard for months it "I have 10 friends that bought Halo and they all bought digital" and "You can preload it so many people bought it digital so they could play 12:01am". It's this kind of special treatment that Halo is getting that has made people fed up of hearing about digital Halo sales.

Trying to track per game sales is even more of a hassle. That said, Halo 5 was a huge title, so preloading the game was something a lot of people tried to do, as they wanted to play it before launch for story reasons and to have an edge in multiplayer (guilty here). I know it starts to annoy others, but when the bundle they sold relied on a digital download code, it sort of sent the message home (screw the disc, buy digital). The problem is that we don't have digital numbers. All we know is that it outsold the best selling digital game that preceded it.

 

-snap-

...and I'm out of here!



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DonFerrari on 29 December 2015
AsGryffynn said:
DonFerrari said:
AsGryffynn said:

Of course, I never said otherwise. However, it was useful for representing the average picture in each console...

you are trying to connect to far points... the only thing I can conclude for certain is the obvious that sales improved digitally.

Have you forgotten what we saw the last page? The link I provided said digital attach rates are up, not that physical sales are down. When you use both links, it paints the console and average picture. Both can allow us to infer the estimated attach rates of both.

You are still confusing a bigger number of people buying digital at least once with how much they buy against retail versions. The study doesn't come close to solving it.

tabbi said:
SWORDF1SH said:

I would like to know where this "fact" came from also.

A couple of crazy facts about digital spending;

  • Amazon top 3 selling gaming items for the year are PSN cards.
  • The top 20 for 2015 contains 6 PSN vouchers = $290
  • The XB1 has 3 vouchers in the top 20 for 2015 = $95
  • In the Gaming Digital hourly charts, 9 PS4 games show up before the first XB1 game at 42nd (Halo 5)

Make of it what you will!

a couple of facts about digital spending and amazon digital voucher

xbox live voucher vary form $10 to $100 with 12 different purchchase options
psn voucher vary from $10 to $100 with only 6 different purchase options and 2 of them (60 and 75) are new and were only released may 2015, while the other 4 were 2011


digital houry charts is as usesless as overall hourly
back on black friday, when many xb1 digital downlods were offered for a pricecut, 5 or more xb1 games showed up before the first ps4 game
this does not tell us anything

ubisoft confirmed in theire investor conference call, that watchdogs (a "playstation" game) had a higher digital attachrate on xbox one.
the overall next gen attachrate was about 10% and ps4 was close to 10%, while xb1 was close to 11%
ofc the "always on and required internet connection" console has a higher digital attachrate...

also. the digital attachrate depends heavily on the region. it's highest in the us and lowest in jp, while europe is in between.
this was confimed and said several times by all major pubishers and famitsu and media create show the same.
so lets just do some easy math, where i use some reasonable, but mainly easy round numbers.

digital attachrate
us 40%
eu 20%
jp 10%

installbase % of ww overall sales
US:
ps4 40% xb1 70%
EU:
ps4 50% xb1 30%
JP:
ps4 10% xb1 0%

overall attachrate:
ps4: 0,4*0,4+0,5*0,2+0,1*0,1 = 0,27 or 27% overall dd attachrate
xb1: 0,7*0,4+0,3*0,2 = 0,34 or 34% overall dd attachrate

edit: on topic

i believe halo 5 will be around 3.5 - 4m at the end of year including digital
and that's not bad, neither great and no bomba

just a good selling game in decline

where did you get your numbers and statistics?

On Amazon for the year we have PSN cards at 1, 2, 3, (8 for PS+), 17, 18 versus X1 on (4 for Gold), 9, (20 Gold)... so 1,2,3,17 and 18 versus 9 put X1 cards above PS4? Don't forget that even if cards released in March when considering year ranks it is still acceptable.

 



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

Swordmasterman on 29 December 2015

By the Goddess, all this thing of Retail VS Digital, is only because Halo did not break the first week predictions yet and the people are trying to make like it sold 50% via Digital Sources ?.



DonFerrari on 29 December 2015
Swordmasterman said:
By the Goddess, all this thing of Retail VS Digital, is only because Halo did not break the first week predictions yet and the people are trying to make like it sold 50% via Digital Sources ?.

90%



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

tabbi on 29 December 2015
DonFerrari said:

 

 

 

where did you get your numbers?

as i said i just used some easy to calculte number to show the pattern
but it does nott matter, if the dd attachrate for one region is some % higher or lower. it does not chance the math. just the numbers. same goes for the % installbase by each region.

you could use whatever numbers you want as your own reasonable estimates and the % overall digital attrachte will not change by more than 2 or 3%
but this is only good for digital attachrates. digital tie ratios or overall digital sales are a different story. we would need more data we don't have to make any educated guess.

 

p.s this has nothing to do with a possible halo 5 digital attachrate. i don't know that number. no1 knows that number excpet microsoft

 

 





Justagamer on 29 December 2015
DonFerrari said:
Justagamer said:

I think that halo 5 may surprise people with its sales. It looks amazing, and has guys like me, not usual halo fans, excited by it. I think it's going to be huge.

And, lol at the 9 people voting for the halo is dead option. I'd like to call a spade a spade here, but I'll bite my tongue on this one.

How does your tongue taste? Seems like your excitement wasn't felt by the X1 userbase.

 

How does my tongue taste? It tastes..... normal. Like a tongue. How does your tongue taste? My guess is,.... ahh. I edited the original response. I'll leave it to your imagination. Lol. No need for a ban on the likes of you.

~Mod Edit~

This post has been moderated.

-Smeags