Yep, it all adds up in the end, as will the restocking of Destiny on Wednesday.
 But when you think about it, it's not really about MS winning October, it's about whether they can grab another 700k back as they did last year, and to me it looks like they'll actually lose ground this Chrismas.

If it stays at $399 I don't see it moving all that much. Currently the Amazon back order listing is $399, so possibly Sony has kept the Destiny LE bundle at $399 MSRP and only dropped the price for basic black and basic white, and associated formerly $399 bundles.

I think realistically with mostly only Halo 5 as a significant draw for Xb one this holidays PS4 is likely to win Nov and Dec if the MSRPs for the basic consoles are $350 for both PS4 and Xb one. There's a general sense that Xb one does better in the holidays because of the attraction of the holiday "casual" buyer due to the Kinect effect from late 7th gen. But if you consider that the only reason Xb one won Nov/Dec last year was the $50 price difference AS WELL AS giving away AC IV and Unity for free it suggests the holiday effect disproportionately helping Xbox does not apply to this generation. So without a core advantage for Xb one PS4 is generally favoured to win holidays this gen, IMO. Is Halo 5 enough of a core advantage by itself for this year? Maybe, maybe not. If it's not, then Xb one has a long term problem even in the US market. If it is then Xbox has a fairly secure future in the US market. I think MS should try to get through with just Halo 5 because throwing a price cut in along with Halo 5, and possibly coming out only just ahead of PS4 basically means MS has thrown the kitchen sink at the US market and has nothing left to throw. If they only run with Halo 5 and narrowly lose to PS4 it means they still have price movement next holidays to add to the holiday 2016 exclusive lineup. If they only go with Halo 5 and narrowly win then that is even better. If they go with a price cut along with Halo 5 and win big (by that I mean completely whiping out the entire lead PS4 has built up during the year, and possibly eating into some of the lead PS4 had at the start of the year) that is great but it is probably the least likely outcome of the various scenarios.

Well it's not jus that MS doesn't have AC, PS4 now has AC.  AND last holidays, MS had CoD bundles and advertising as well.  Now PS4 has that.  It's not just MS has lost those crutches, Sony took them.  People were downplaying those moves after E3 but I think people drastically underestimate the power of so many marketing agreements.  Sony has Destiny, CoD, AC, and Star Wars while MS just has Fallout 4 this holiday.  So yeah, unless MS goes insane and starts practically burning mountains of money even more than last year, they have very little chance of winning the holidays, imo. 

The other thing is that Fallout 4 is a WRPG, a genre that has a much greater attachment rate on the PS4 than on the XBO. The PS4 version of The Witcher 3 sold twice as much in the US despite The Witcher 2 being console exclusive to the 360 and Microsoft having marketing rights to the third iteration. In contrast, the hardware sales ratio is 1.1-1.2 to 1 favoring the PS4.

Of course, Fallout 4 does have FPS qualities which makes it more appealing to Xbox gamers compared to the average WRPG.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9HsWlLvet4E

That's an older version. This is the new advert:

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=209140&page=1#

I didnt want to post that one because its 480p

Oh yeah, I'd forgotten about all those advantages MS had last year which have flipped to Sony this year.

I think the FPSness of Fallout > WRPGness which means I expect FO4 on Xb one to either sell proportionally even with or mybe ahead of the PS4 version. In the USA at least. Similarly I expect the 8th gen TES game (if there is one) to sell better or same on Xb one.

Not going to happen since the PS4 will remain ahead of the X1 in the US and F4 for PS4 is higher curently on Amaxon than the X1 version.It could sell more with the bundle,but not seperately.Either way it doe snot matter as it won't improve X1 sales.

Amazon is very bad for predicting relative software sales, so FO4 being ahead on PS4 on Amazon does not guarantee the PS4 version being the highest selling for NPD. I think there have been a few instances where the PS4 version of a game was higher on Amazon but NPD reported Xb one having the highest selling version. But I agree that FO4 probably won't do much for Xb one hardware, though I think if PS4 had the marketing rights for FO4 as well as everything else that would be worse for Xb one, so having the marketing rights for FO4 benefits XB one by having it not go to PS4.