At least somebody here can appreciate the time/effort/talent it takes to analyze the market

lol, I honestly hope for your sanity that this is just a joke thread. I'm not sure if the wii u was given away as a happy meal gift it would reach those numbers in the next few years :)

Great analysis indeed.

Holy shit, you guys need to work on your sarcasm detectors.

I thought "I used calculus" would've given it away but I guess not xD

Lol 55 million for wiiu when it barely sold 10 million in three years. So it's going to see 44 million more in a year or two when it's successor is already close to coming out.

Hope a mod locks this ridiculous excuse of a thread soon.

There are good sarcasm threads and there are bad ones. I prefer Rol's. He puts some effort into them and they're actually funny.

You mean that you're serious? The PS3 has been the less brilliant Sony's console and it sold about 85 million (and it's still selling). The PS4 is outpacing the PS2, it sold more than 25 million in not even 2 years without any price drop, and after launch (thus from January 1st 2014) it has been outselling the XBone more than 2 to 1, the Wii U more than 3 to 1, still having launched an year after the Wii U. 

And that's the math. Then the historical analysis says that the PS4 will keep selling decently if not well after the next PlayStation will have launched. That isn't true for the Xbox and it will be even less true for the Wii U, especially considering that Nintendo is introducing a new console earlier.

I expect the PS4 to sell at the end of the generation at least 100 million, with chances to even pass the 155 million of the PS2, doubling the Xbone sales and with (noticeably) more than three times the sales of the Wii U, which will be early retired.

You prefer Rol threads? Lol. That's original. He sure has become the Sony of VGC. He does absolutely no wrong and is perfect in every way.

I guess Rol is the PS4, and I'm just the Wii U.

You are wrong.

1. Not a chance in hell the wiiU makes 25M sales by the time its replacement comes along. To think anything otherwise is just wishful thinking. Delusional thinking more is actually more accurate. A console can not have a spike or boost in sales off just two or 3 games. And its fallacy to conclude that in the strongest 2yrs of a certain other console (which also happens to be the current market leader) the WiiU will somehow sell more almost 3 times as much consoles as it has in the 4yrs before it combined. That is juts ridiculous and that kinda thinking deludes any prediction you may make.

2. The PS4 is on track to sell way more than your 80M prediction. So far its tracking, and historically aligned to hit numbers higher than 80M. This can be deduced by simply looking at any console in history that has tracked at a rate similar or higher than the PS4.

But there are even more things to consider. The PS4 has not hit its peak year yet in software. The PS4 has also not even got its first proper official price drop or its first full redesign. These are all factors that not only prolongs the life of a console but also amount to the biggest boost in its average monthly sales. None of that has happened yet for the PS4. Technically speaking, barring its final year(s), this is the worst the PS4 is ever gonna sell. If you take that into consideration, you may understand why your numbers are off.

Some perspective, by the end of 2015, the PS4 should be at at least 35M sold. It stands to have at least two 18M-20M years (software and price drop year 2016 and redesign, VR and another price drop year 2017) then trail of for another two years of 2014/2015 like sales before the PS5. By simple lowballing math, that puts the PS4 at 90M+ (much closer to 100M) sold.

3. As for the XB1, unfortunately it's always going to play second fiddle to the PS4 this generation. Cause if there is one thing this generation will show more than any before it is that there isn't room enough for 3 homes consoles. Especially when two of those consoles are practically twins.

The biggest problem with the XB1 is that its practically irrelevant (with the exception to the UK) outside NA. It may keep in step with the PS4 in NA, but that's nothing when it tanks everywhere else. And my NA lifetime PS4 prediction is around 40% of its global sales (arguably being generous). If the PS4 hits 100M, that means the XB1 will have around 30-35M sales in NA alone. And will likely at least get 10-15M from ROW. That puts the XB1 at 45-55M globally at least. Which is directly in step with its current market share position in relation to the PS4 right now.


So yh, I don't see how you could possibly be right with ur predictions. But this is all left to be seen. I could be wrong too. And I arrived at all my deductions using extremely advance math too (aka pulling numbers outta ass). Nice thread by the way. Gave me a good laugh. unless ur serious. then I would be truly disturbed.

That's a terrible prediction. Pretty sure you're low key joking lol.

Wii U won't make it past 30 mil let alone 55.

Ps4 should get over 90 easily by the time the generation is done.

Xbone will probably surpass 40 mil.