Following the release of Super Mario Maker last week, it became clear that WiiU is likely headed towards it's best year yet in Japan 2015.
In the West, it's close to the same deal. The WiiU is only one better-than-average holiday away from hitting it's best year yet in 2015. This is how that happens: Even with the Star Fox delay, Nintendo is releasing more games on WiiU than any previous holiday season. More releases directly correlate to more consumer interest, more sales. Add in a small boost to due continued growth in marketshare in games like Skylanders, Lego Dimensions/other Lego games, and Disney Infinity. Consider many WiiU games are still legging really well and given their sustained high attach rates mean they are effectively still pushing WiiU hardware. A record holiday is had lead by a hard, continued push of Super Mario Maker because 2D Mario is arguably Nintendo's strongest IP. Boom: Wii U hits 13-14 million by beginning of 2016.
All that considered, the WiiU has its best holiday yet in 2015. Now it's 2016. And our collective convention has been 2016 is then the NX is supposed to replace WiiU. Yet that doesn't change the fact WiiU then clearly goes into 2016 with stronger momentum 1st half of the year than any previous other year. 2016 WiiU for sure gets SMTxFE, Star Fox Zero, Pokken Fighters, Mario & Sonic at 2016 Olympic Games, Zelda U (which will release for the 30th anniversary), and maybe even Pikmin 4. Very solid lineup for a decent year by WiiU standards.
Ok, what about NX? Isn't it coming out in 2016? Considering how much Nintendo has delayed WiiU projects and everything else in general(they have extensive history of it), what really convinces you NX actually replaces WiiU in 2016? Especially as we've seen practically nothing about NX? The idea the very utterance of a new, future platform destroys the WiiU's existence is actually pretty weak. New hardware only surpasses the old when it's existence has materialized and offers something substantially new and better. NX hasn't accomplished any of that yet, and it's really doubtful it will by E3 2016.
Have you considered that maybe NX could just as well include an effort to revamp and rebrand the WiiU OS/ecosystem to make that system appealling?
Now also consider heavily rumored WiiU projects that could arrive in 2016, most of which we've assumed have gone to NX - but just as easily still be WiiU-exclusive for their own reasons and become other later WiiU 2016 titles.
-Tantalus WiiU mystery 'AAA' project
-Headstrong Games WiiU project (Lego City Undercover 2 maybe?)
-Next Level games WiiU project (Luigi's Mansion U or something else)
-Intelligent Systems WiiU Project (Paper Mario)
-Retro Studios WiiU project
-Monster Games WiiU project (Could be a DKR2 with Retro)
Now let's say WiiU finally gets an official pricecut in 2016. Similar trends as 2015 Holiday persist.
And here's yet another wildcard: Nintendo's smartphone games open up a brand new advertising channel for dedicated gaming hardware and create meaningful incentives for smartphone users to own Nintendo hardware to bolster their overall gameplay experience.
Ta-da! All this makes WiiU hits its peak year in 2016.
As I see it, NX Portable hits the market in early 2017 with several WiiU ports. More high-powered NX home console arrives holiday 2017 or later and has God-know-what to launch with and becomes positioned to lead off gen 9. WiiU gets one last major release holiday 2017. Gets discontinued in 2018.
I predict NX launches in 2017 - not 2016
