I'll bet the Zelda U will have the biggest first week of any Wii U game. *Edit* Granted only if it is exclusive.

No, that would more likely be the bottom floor.

Yeah and then what?

It'll drop like a rock in week 2. It won't be one of the top three selling games for the system and likely won't sell anywhere near what Nintendo would want for a game of its budget (5 year dev cycle, HD graphics, large open world) if its only on Wii U. 

That opening would be bigger if it was a launch title for the NX. But hurrah for lower sales I guess. 

Seeing as how 2D Mario, 3D Mario, Smash Brothers, Mario Kart, Donkey Kong Country, Bayonetta, Mario Maker, Splatoon, Xenoblade, and yes even the new Zelda will only get the current Wii U to like 17 million most likely, I wouldn't even say 20 million is any kind of floor. 

It may well be that it's the roof if they cannot attract anyone but the same group of Nintendo fans. By 2017 Sony/MS will pretty much have consolidated most of the core market. I think they'll even lose the parents/kids market, by then PS4/XB1 will have years to have make their pricing affordable and a library of thousands of games, Nintendo will be starting with like 10 games. It's only the real Nintendo fans that are going to think that's a great proposition.

Unless Nintendo offers something different. You know , something that no one is expecting. It doesn't matter if NX launches in 2016 or 2017, it's going to be mid gen anyway. Nintendo knows that just releasing a PS4 with their logo on top won't do them any good. 

I want NX next year. I need a Nintendo home console and late 2016 would be perfect for me. Just make it more x86, more powerful than PS4 and with Wii and Wii U BC. Make it simple, don't go crazy, Nintendo!

Right. But those types of ideas are very, very hard to come by, it's not like they had some incredible idea for the 3DS or Wii U and decided to not use it. 

If they were sitting on such an idea, my guess is they would not have made the earth shattering decision to make smartphone games. They only made that call because they're not really sure how their future in dedicated hardware is going to go. 

My personal view in that case (if they don't have magical wunder controller) it to make a very powerful handheld and leverage falling tech costs in the mobile sector, which is definitely happening. Then from there build the rest of the NX line around this main portable device, so you can have a console that scales up from the mobile, but it's not a big deal if the console doesn't shatter the world, because it's just one secondary part of the hardware family. 

Just like it's no big deal to Apple if the iPod Touch doesn't put up huge numbers, because the iPhone and iPad carry the load and have such large userbases that every app maker has to make apps for it. 

Their handhelds are basically consoles. It's not like they can release a handheld and use 1/10th the resources anymore, Nintendo handhelds now require a "real" 3D Mario, a "real" Smash Brothers, a "real" Mario Kart, gone are the days when they could release a 12-year-old port of Super Mario Bros. 2 and call it a day.

The next Nintendo portable will have a "real" 3D Zelda and Splatoon too, so basically it requires the same development focus that a Nintendo console would. 

So even in the "well they can release the portable in 2016, but console in 2017" ... I say ... so what? There would be no difference, they'll ditch all/most Wii U development, just like 3DS basically killed all Wii development. You can't just launch a portable nowadays with just minimal resources, so when ever the portable NX launches, that's basically where all their focus will be. 

What difference does it make? The console-portable being distinct products is likely going down the toilet too, NX will be a over-reaching platform where you'll buy which ever flavor of hardware you want (tablet size, home console, micro-console, pocket portable, etc.). 

If the portable NX launches next year ... then NX has launched period. 

It also means that like 95% of Nintendo's internal resources are going to be dedicated to making sure that product has full software backing, which means buh-bye Wii U and 3DS.

Games for that system aren't going to magically develop themselves. 

How can something be a flop and yet very popular?  Did I hit a nerve?

The Wii  U won't pass the Vita.  Deal.  With.  It. 

That should make you want Ninty to launch a new platform ASAP.