Lmao, Sonic Dash has over a 100 million downloads. You're saying the Sonic brand is twice as strong as Pokémon?

I think Mario based iOS games will do the best, everyone knows Mario, while Pokemon has a very rabid fanbase, it's not as popular outside of that core group (granted which is very large).

...A lot.

Pokemon fans will download it

I'll go with 100 million lifetime.

AR pokemon wont take off until AR glasses are the norm hooked up to your phone.

Its no fun haveing to view the world through the camra lens of your phone.
If it could work with a pair of classes you always just wore.... things would be alot differnt.

Based on this I will amend to 200 million, tops.

I'm sure there will be some kind of standalone mode -- the AR bit is just to add to the fun.

Nintendo patented something AR/VR like in the not to distant past btw.

You also have to account for this: Sonic Dash is a pretty mediocre endless runner, it pushed a lot mainly on brand recognition alone.

Even if it's mediocre as a Pokemon game, it'll have the basic Pokemon combat and catch-em-all mechanics. Which can addict practically anyone.

Apple, Google, and other smartphone makers are praising God right now. This is a huge positive externality towards driving sales of new devices. They each do their part to push the game in some way. 1 billion or bust.

How much has Pokemon shuffle been downloaded?