Exactly, Forza is unlikely to shift any significant numbers of consoles, people who are on the lookout for an XBO *might* get a console with Forza bundled if there is a deal, but that may not be because they wanted forza, just a free game :)

People who wanted Forza will already have purchased an XBO, the numbers who havent will be very small. The same problem existed for the MS AC bundle, because people who really wanted a next gen AC game already moved to PS4 the year before for the very good Black Flag (probably why the bundle took so long to shift).

Halo is the only game out of all the games that has significant pulling power, and having already released a MCC, I suspect it will do less that it could of (because people already moved across), but I expect it to still push a good number.

Super Mario Maker, Star Fox Zero, Xenoblade Chronicles X, Fatal Frame V, Yo-kai Watch, The Legend of Zelda: Triforce Heroes, Animal Crossing: Happy Home Designer, Animal Crossing: Amiibo Festival.

Persona 5 is also on PS3 and the Talos Principle is on PC and Android. Tales of Zestiria is also on PS3 and PC. Shadow of the beast has no release date.

Sony doesn't have to do a thing. Sony could actually make a anti Sony campaign and still outsell Xbox. This generation is in the bag. I don't think they need to do a price drop until maybe late 2016, when NX launches. Even then I might not recommend it because they will finally have games by then.

PS4 will outsell Xbox One globally regardless of the exclusives lineup...so i dont think taking a loss this year to further the advantage is worth it.

Sony has nothing to worry about, PS4 will have had The Order 1886, Bloodborne, Until Dawn, Tearaway Unfolded, Kill Strain, The Tomorrow Children and Fat Princess Adventures for outright exclusives on the system.
Out of all of those games only 2 are from established franchises, the rest are entirely new and fresh IPs, way more likely to draw in new gamers to the platform.

As has been shown over multiple releases Halo isn't so much a system seller as a game that can move units of software, but the install base is already on the platform.
Halo 3 released on the 25th of September 2007, on the 22nd (the end of the week prior to it's release) 360 had sold 164K, the week after Halo 3 released (ending the 29th of September) 360 had sold 234K, despite the game selling 3.8M copies the console only moved an extra 70K units of hardware, not what anyone should be calling a system seller.
Looking at ODST, that game released on the 22nd of September 2009, on the 19th 360 sold close to 130K, the week ODST released 360 sold close to 148K, so the system only sold an extra 18K despite ODST selling 2.2M units.
Reach came out on the 14th of September 2010, the week of the 11th 360 sold 158.6K, despite Reach selling 3.69M the console only managed to sell 264.4K units of hardware for the week ending the 18th of September 2010, so 360 only sold 105.8K more because of Halo coming to the platform.

Halo 4 came out on the 6th of November 2012, the week ending the 3rd 360 sold 264.9K units, the week ending the 10th 360 sold 379.8K, despite Halo 4 selling 3.6M units of the game, it still only sold 115K units, not really a system seller considering the game sold millions of units.

I doubt Halo 5 will buck the trend and move even a quarter of a million XB1's.
I don't get where this belief that Halo is a system seller comes from, the game sells because the install base is already on the platform, if that's the case the it sells to existing XBox owners, but not because the game is coming to the platform.

I wouldn't be shocked if much of these sales were the result of COD being more popular on 360 last gen, still the current install base of XB1 will be the majority of the people that buy Halo 5, with maybe 100K more for the week the game releases, that's what tends to be the case with halo when it releases on XBox.

The global sales are all that matters, Sony has more new exclusives releasing this year, they have the Marketing deals for the major 3rd party games and Sony are still yet to announce a price cut, which could easily happen at Paris Games Week in time for the Holidays or just randomly as we go into the Fall, which happens on the 22nd.

FYI Forza 6 isn't a Fall release, it's a summer game, releasing on the 15th of September, Fall begins on the 22nd of that month, if you're going to count games that release before Fall as Fall games then Sony has Tearaway Unfolded and Until Dawn, along with Kill Strain and The Tomorrow Children, it's hardly a lacking line-up, in fact it's way more diverse than a 2 highly milked franchises from Microsoft.

Fable Legends releases on PC, so it's not an exclusive, if you're going to count games releasing on another platform then Sony also has Persona 5 and Dragon Quest Heroes.
Sony's line-up destroys Microsoft's, I'm sure the sales will reflect this, just as they did globally the last holiday.

This generation has defied everything that is logic so I wouldn't be so sure. Obviously, Microsoft has the better software lineup for this Fall. I don't believe that's even disputable. However, the PS4 has been dominating to such a point where the lead is at least 11-12m+ units now. That's a lot of ground to cover because Sony starts their big lineup in 2016. In addition, there will be the Japanese exclusives such as Nier 2, Star Ocean 6, etc.

I don't think Microsoft outsells Sony this holiday despite that better lineup. I believe that the message at launch was so damn confusing it threw logic out the window. USA? They'll take a few weeks, but WW I think the ship has sailed on EU and JPN.

It will be a very interesting holiday for sure. Hopefully, we'll have some numbers :/

Not really a loss in any way for Sony.  X1 had nothing for 8 months and people forgot fast. PS4 has more holiday exclusives from jap devs, Bloodborne for people jumping to PS4, and a suprise positive response from Until Dawn.

I would say that in reality PS4 has more to offer than X1 and people will be remembering that soon after the holiday hype glasses come off.

Personally, I believe Sony will be fine for this year. Call of Duty and Star Wars should be sufficient to combat Halo for the US crown. Worldwide is essentially theirs. I want the Xbox to succeed in Europe and Japan, but Sony has dominated Europe and has done quite well in Japan.

When 2016 comes around, Sony is going to have a monster of a year. How big is anyone's guess. All I know is that Sony is primed for one of its biggest years in quite some time.

If Xbox stops putting the games on PC, it may sell more. There is no incentive to buy one, Xbox is being phased out in the long term, it's over.

Sony might be outsold by the Xone this holiday in the US by a small margin. On a global scale I don't see them doing anything below 2:1. So yeah, I doubt they will be hurt much in the long run.