I don't see why MS can't still get marketing exclusivity rights, especially for games with high USA/UK appeal. They'll just need to pay more for those rights. What they will never get is a multi-plat to go exclusive like RoTR. No publisher in their right mind is going to diss the PS4 user base with an existing IP. MS will have to purchase exclusive new IP, but even then publishers will want to be able to put the IP onto PC as part of the cost of missing out on seeling to that PS4 user base.

Meanwhile, aside from FPS, Sony wouldn't have too much difficulty in getting console exclusivity for some existing IP if they really wanted to, or full exclusivity for new IP. I hope they don't do the former, but it wouldn't surprise me if they did that for one or two more existing IP in the future.  Would be kinda karmically funny if Sony snagged console exclusivity for the next Tomb Raider game. There's a danger Sony could do that if RoTR doesn't meet sales expectations on Xb one.  

Sure MS can just burn even more money on the Xbone to get those marketing deals but eventually it gets to the level of futility that the greater MS corporation will see no point.  And I think Sony stealing away CoD marketing exclusivity and the competitive scene (and creating a pseudo Madden bundle to boot) show that Sony is looking to push Xbox to that point. 

I don't see why MS can't still get marketing exclusivity rights, especially for games with high USA/UK appeal. They'll just need to pay more for those rights. What they will never get is a multi-plat to go exclusive like RoTR. No publisher in their right mind is going to diss the PS4 user base with an existing IP. MS will have to purchase exclusive new IP, but even then publishers will want to be able to put the IP onto PC as part of the cost of missing out on seeling to that PS4 user base.

Meanwhile, aside from FPS, Sony wouldn't have too much difficulty in getting console exclusivity for some existing IP if they really wanted to, or full exclusivity for new IP. I hope they don't do the former, but it wouldn't surprise me if they did that for one or two more existing IP in the future.  Would be kinda karmically funny if Sony snagged console exclusivity for the next Tomb Raider game. There's a danger Sony could do that if RoTR doesn't meet sales expectations on Xb one.  

The real issue here is revenue.  You see Microsoft has money, but Xbox Revenue has been in free fall since the price cut and unbundles.  Thats why you see the revival of 399 and even 499 SKUs.  And don't forget they did get Tomb Raider  And I'm sure they paid some major cash for that.  But in truth, there is nothing Microsoft can do to take the lead from Sony so why bother.    Why spend a boat load of money on cash deals when you can generate more reveune from Halo, and the onslaught of bundles.   There is no likely scenerio where Sony fails to beat Microsoft.  Sony jcan do more with those deals than Microsoft can. 

Outside the USA no, there is no win condition available for Xb one, inside the USA the win condition is pretty tight. However if MS has any ongoing ambition with Xbox as a hardware brand (rather than Xbox App on PCs, tablets and phones), then this generation more or less needs to be written off from a profit perspective and the sole aim should be to remain relevant as a global (excluding Japan) brand. If MS chooses to focus on revenue and profits for this generation then I think the chances for Xbox one 2 are very slim. If MS chooses to maximise install base, be as relevant as possible and snag some useful exclusives (at this point RoTR is about useless as an exclusive) they have a chance of doing a decent reset for the next generation, whatever the next generation might look like.

I get your point and I see where that would be a viable option, but in the business world, running negative profits on the hope of maximizing next gen kinda went out of style when Xbox 360 failed to return profits overall.  I think maximizing revenues is the best way to approach this at this point.   I think the problem with planning for next gen is that you are right:  No one knows what it looks like yet.  Caution is the best way to go.  Remember, the USA isn't a sure thing even if they do lowball it. Sony still has the top trump card.  A mere $50 price cut would probably put the USA out of reach for Microsoft for the forseeable future.  So if there is no guarentee that they can improve their marketshare, they should focus on profits and revenue.  That is far easier to manage and much more predictable.