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Forums - Sales Discussion - Japans PS3 Nightmare

windbane on 17 May 2007
johnlucas said:
mrstickball said:
John, there really are no paralells between any system and how it did in the future vs. anyone. In the SNES/Gen era, the Genesis was running rampant over the NES. The SNES launched, and took the lead due to massive Japan sales, and solid US sales. The SNES started slow, and built up, the Genesis stayed the same throughout. In the N64/PS1 era, the N64 outpaced the PS1 hugely at launch, but due to the PS1 being released a year early, the N64 never truely overcame the lead, and ended up being incredibly left behind after the PS1 got its major software in RE2 and FFVII. In the PS2 era, the PS2 never had any remote competition. The only real major 'key' were lots of titles for every market, and having them come out within 1-12mo after the systems launch. In the N64 era, the reason, I believe, it lost was due to very poor software titles. Yes, you had Mario, but nothing else. In the US, you had Turok and a few others, which is probably why the US sold 75% of the consoles. The N64 certainly had more western-targeted software in LoZ:OoT, Goldeneye, and Turok. The contest isn't always won early. Its won in the 6-18mo period. However, this generation is unlike any other, John Lucas. You have 3 actual players, and not a marginalized sucky-crap Nintendo, a newcomer in MS, a dead Sega and a powerful Playstation. You have a striving, strong Nintendo, a crafty Microsoft, and a fallen king in Playstation. Anything could happen. Sony is really going for the 10-year strategy. They are trying to fit 6 or 7 years worth of good software into 10 years :-p IMO, I wouldn't be too worried about Sony in Japan. Yes, sales are sucking, but they have enough money, and enough multi-ports to stay alive and decent. None of the games (HSG, NGS, ect) are going to save the PS3. They'll all help. Larry said HSG will sell 40k systems o/w. That is very reasonable. But what will 40k systems do when the Wii sells 70k that same week, and that being a LOW week? HSG should sell 250k-300k, NGS could do 150k, but how does that matter when a 9 month old Wii Sports and Wii Play will end up selling nearly 200k that month combined?

You missed the point, Mr. Stickball.

I'm talking sales only. Check the sales figures. Who was ahead. Who was behind. Who was in the middle. And check if the champ of each generation corresponded accordingly. I'm talking more of head-to-head sales as all systems launched not cumulative sales since all systems launched differently.

It takes about 6 months to show how a generation will end up except for one (the 4th between SNES & Genesis) and only in certain regions.

Genesis running rampant over NES. I should hope so it being a vastly more abled system. A difference that actually counts which is why we separate systems into generations. Actually I think NES was still holding its own against Genesis if I remember correctly so 16-bit Genesis was actually in contest with an 8-bit NES which is sort of ridiculous when you think about it.

I'm gonna come on out and just say it. PS3 will not survive past 2009. I've seen this for a long time. Whether they choose to make a PS4 or even exit the gamebusiness is up to them but the PS3 is dead in the water.

That "too early to call" cliché is old hat and simply not well thought out. It's not going to be good enough for them to make their business plan work for them. They depend on software sales to get ahead. They have PS2 undoing the PS3. They're competing against themselves. The PS2 loyals won't switch over. And right now it's okay since PS2 Phenomenon still has strength in 7th gen. But it won't last much longer. When PS2 finally rides off into the sunset rude awakening is awaiting Sony.

Exodus is coming. The developers are going to abandon Sony due to poor sales. Of THEIR games and Sony's consoles which in turn further hampers viable sales of their games. Since it takes more money to make games on Sony's platform it takes more sales to make up the difference. This is not happening. You barely see a PS3 title IN the top 50 and if you do you don't see 'em for long from week to week.

There WILL be no turnaround. It's over. They simply have to hang on for the rest of the gen preserving what they still have 'cause #1 spot is irrevocably lost. And the way it's going #2 is about to be lost as well. If they fall behind Microsoft in Japan, it's the ultimate in patheticness. That will be the shame heard 'round the world.

Sony's actually lucky Microsoft doesn't have its game together. MS is not capitalizing on Sony's weak points. They still are a non-factor in Europe and that could have been a region they could make their mark since Europeans get so overlooked in the gamemarket for releases and such. If Microsoft knew what they were doing the results would have been even worse for Sony.

You're right every generation's different but some things never change. Some things are evergreen in this business. The "battle" for videogame supremacy is fought long before the launch and the face-off is usually always brief. The GOAT's of the N64 didn't make a difference for Nintendo and neither will it be the same for Sony's PS3.

Not a bash, just the cold hard facts. I don't deal well with delusion. Gotta be a realist and call it down the middle.

John Lucas


Don't see how he missed your point. He showed there is no correlation between only looking at 6 months and the ultimate victor. But you can continue to jump to conclusions if you want.

Ubisoft is going to announce a PS3 exclusive. Is that the sign of the exodous? I guess so...

Ah, the top 50...6 Wii games are there last week. 6 out of 50 isn't very significant either. The top game right now is the PSP FFT remake, another "dead" system. Just shows that when (yes, it WILL HAPPEN) games come out that Japanese games want they will get them.

Now, the major weakness of your statements: what evidence suggests that Microsoft could ever hope to pull ahead in Japan? 341 more software sold this week? I guess we should just ignore that despite terrible hardware numbers for the PS3, it outsold the 360 almost 4 to 1. What software will save the 360? Lost Odyssey and...?

It is obvious that the Wii could continue to pull ahead of the PS3 in Japan in the near term, but to suggest that PS3 is hopeless already I just find shortsighted. The PS3 has far more 3rd party support than the N64 had.



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Pk9394 on 17 May 2007

on another personal opinion, I dont know how much taste others change according to play a golf game, But I dont want to play another golf game without the Wiimote. If Wii have redefined jp consumer's taste on how to play a golf game, then expect HSG 4 to have a low impact on ps3 sales.



ramberk on 17 May 2007

HappySqurriel said:

For consumers the Wii is a dramatically less expensive piece of hardware, with less expensive games and is (overall) a very affordable. For developers the Wii is dramatically less expensive to develop games for which means for the same investment in gaming you can produce more games. The overall result of this means that once the Wii  gets a solid lead it will become nearly impossible to take it away from it; why would a gamer spend $100 or $200 more for a system which has less games, and why would a developer spend 2 to 4 times as much to develop a game for a system that has a smaller userbase.


Exactly.

It's funny how we got to this point in time, in regards to the video game market.

The performance of the Gamecube caused game publishers to just not care about any future Nintendo home game systems. And the performance of the PS2 caused game publishers to think that the PS3 would repeat the success of the PS2.

Of course, no one expected the Wii-mote, the price of the PS3 and the cost of developing software for the Wii and PS3. Nintendo did just about everything to come back on top. Sony did just about everything to throw away their gaming business.

My prediction is that the PS3 will die a slow death-- I know that still sounds impossible to say but the Wii has not lost any momentum since its launch, and is in fact gaining more momentum as AAA titles appear on the console. Game publishers are going to develop on the console with the hype, momentum and installed base. Gamers will buy the console that has the hype, momentum and AAA titles. Its a self-fullfiling prophecy. The gamers bring the publishers. The publishers bring the gamers. And the gamers and publishers are both leaving the PS3. The PS3 will be this generation's Gamecube-- or even worse because its so expensive and time consuming to develop for the PS3. At least the Gamecube was cheaper and easier to develop games for.

The Wii has started a loop that is not going to get stopped-- no hype, just reality. Sony made too many tactical mistakes. Gamers want it cheap and they want something new to the gaming experience. The PS3 is too expensive and it has the same-old, same-old.



albionus on 17 May 2007

Aside from not wanting to play Golf without the Wiimote again as Pk9394 mentioned, how is a golf game who's past installments didn't even sell 1 million worldwide going to suddenly move a $600 system with no other games worth buying (at least according to Sony fanboys trying to rationalize its poor sales)?



Goddbless on 17 May 2007

The 360 is outselling the PS3 in Japan where it counts right now, and that is software. If they continue to do that then developers may start to show them more business which will be very bad for Sony. That would start a chain reaction which could maybe lead to more sales for the 360.

I've heard someone say it before but now I'm starting to believe Microsoft could beat Sony by default if current trends continue. Yet the arrogance that Sony has won't let them go into a state of urgency to fix what problems they may have.



Love the product, not the company. They love your money, not you.

-TheRealMafoo

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dpmnymkrprez on 17 May 2007
Goddbless said:

The 360 is outselling the PS3 in Japan where it counts right now, and that is software. If they continue to do that then developers may start to show them more business which will be very bad for Sony. That would start a chain reaction which could maybe lead to more sales for the 360.

I've heard someone say it before but now I'm starting to believe Microsoft could beat Sony by default if current trends continue. Yet the arrogance that Sony has won't let them go into a state of urgency to fix what problems they may have.


I agree with you, it is not looking too good for the PS3, I am still wondering what meetings and measures the Sony camp is taking to fix the situation?



Erik Aston on 17 May 2007

Hot Shots Golf? That's the big "savior" game on the horizon now? Jeez. Its gotten pretty bad. PS3 has lost Japan. The over/under for lifetime sales is 4 million, ie Gamecube levels. So far, PS3 is charting way behind Gamecube levels, due to GC's comparitively stronger launch, but I'm giving them the benefit of the doubt. The over/under for Wii lifetime sales is about 27 million, and for 360 about 1.2 million. IMO.



"[Our former customers] are unable to find software which they WANT to play."
"The way to solve this problem lies in how to communicate what kind of games [they CAN play]."

Satoru Iwata, Nintendo President. Only slightly paraphrased.

Christopher_G2 on 17 May 2007
Goddbless said:

The 360 is outselling the PS3 in Japan where it counts right now, and that is software. If they continue to do that then developers may start to show them more business which will be very bad for Sony. That would start a chain reaction which could maybe lead to more sales for the 360.

I've heard someone say it before but now I'm starting to believe Microsoft could beat Sony by default if current trends continue. Yet the arrogance that Sony has won't let them go into a state of urgency to fix what problems they may have.


The 360 outselling the PS3 in Japan? No chance in hell my friend. There's a better chance of me having a threeway with Jennifer Lopez and Jessica Simpson. Think about it, it has to be embarassing for someone in Japan to go to that video game store, find a 360 in the back corner of the shop, and put it on that sales counter. The store workers probably assume anyone who does has something wrong with them. There's an anti-microsoft stigma that's so strong in Japan and it's not going to end. People probably ostracize their friends in Japan for buying 360s, and no I'm not exagerating. The PS3 might be overly costly and not have very many games, but there's not near the stigma there is with the 360. The PS3 isn't doing well right now, but in case you've been away the 360 always does conciderably worse.



auroragb on 17 May 2007

Sony needs to go into niche mode. It needs to find its strength and solidify it into a full advantage. I think that Sony needs to really focus on BR now. Because it's the only upside that it has right now. They need to quickly bolster the BR release library (much more easy to do than building a game library) and promote it as the cheapest (msrp) retail BR player on the market (and you get PS2 compat for free!). It needs to focus on beating the 360. Forget about the Wii, you can't attack it while it's the media darling and anything you do will just be interpret it as a me too or jealousy. The key is to take on an enemy it can beat. Investment into cell api development with partners will be key. Insist on the developers taking every advantage of PS3 possible and share the results. There is still too much security by obscurity among game devs to maintain advantage. If the feature is compelling enough to be a requirement for a game, chances of it being an exclusive increases greatly and its sales will drive PS3 sales. Downside is that first parties have less advantage against 3rd parties If they can demonstrate that they can consistently outsell 360 in all territories for the rest of the year despite 360s larger base and library, it will be in a much stronger position. If the free home can steal Live userbase, even better. This means that 2007 will still be a loss year for scei (no avoiding it no matter what), but it means that profitability in 2008 is possible. If scei cannot cut their loss



unholygospel on 17 May 2007

Nintendo Won. Microsoft bitching about being second. Sony's dead.