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Forums - Sales - Ethomaz's Japan Sales Trending Prediction For 2015 (373,286 For PS4 1.5m)

outlawauron on 30 June 2015

The prediction league was great! One of the features that I do miss.



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Bofferbrauer on 30 June 2015

As you can see by yourself on your graphic, the PS4 had some big spring with many big releases, but since then the difference is quite low, and big hitters like what we had there are more than just a bit lacking for the course of the rest of the year. So I doubt the 1.5 Million will be achieved, and it's defenetly not a conservative number.

Wii U looks flat because it had lost much during spring, and retaken almost all the lost terrain since the launches of Xenoblade Cronicles X and Splatoon. Considering what else is coming this year, Wii U ending up YoY by quite some margin is not impossible and 750k not overly optimistic



benao87 on 30 June 2015
ethomaz said:
benao87 said:

Are you going to stick with it, or are you going to ignore the thread should your prediction go wrong, like this one:

I Believe PS3 Will Be The Number One Console This Gen With 115 Million Shipped. And You? (Sales > My Prediction Right Now)

No new numbers was released... the thread is updated with the lasted like all my others thread (I never ignored any thread here).

If you have any new info about you can share in the thread that I will update it.
Or you can go to the future and tell my how much I was wrong.

lol

So, you say there's no evidence to make you change the prediction.

And don't take me wrong, like you I do consider these types of threads the best of vgchartz.



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ethomaz on 30 June 2015

benao87 said:

So, you say there's no evidence to make you change the prediction.

And don't take me wrong, like you I do consider these types of threads the best of vgchartz.

Change prediction? It is right or wrong... either way I won't change the prediction.

The thread indeed needs update but we don't have new numbers since Nov 2013.



WC4Life on 30 June 2015

Persona 5 should be 2015 also. 1,5 million is definitely possible if there is a pricecut. Based on everything said here, I too believe PS4 will do over 1,5 million. I would never have made it on my own and looking at this thread neither would have anyone else. Really nice prediction ethomaz.



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hiska-kun on 30 June 2015
ethomaz said:

Ryng_Tolu said:

I believe it will sell:

Week 49: 30.000
Week 50: 40.000
Week 51: 50.000
Week 52: 60.000

 

So, i think we will see 180k in 2015 compared to the 150k of 2014... so, better than last year, but not by 50%, more like 20% or so...

Just a question... are you predicting these numbers with price cut or without it? I believe Sony will drop the price this year.

Price cut? Why do you need a price cut when you're selling above your expectations (worldwide). Do you want to earn less money? lol

price cut should come after Christmas, when sales will probably slow down. By the end of February/March seems a nice timing



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ethomaz on 01 July 2015

Week 26 for Japan.

PS4: 14.482 (Last year: 8.059)
Wii U: 13.166 (Last year: 10.653)

OP updated.



sc94597 on 01 July 2015

Sounds about right. Next year's Wii U sales should be down, unless the Animal Crossing board game and Zelda U can boost them to stay even.



ethomaz on 01 July 2015

@hiska-kun on GAF posted two table comparing montly sales of the consoles that exactly shows how good PS4 is doing this year compared with last year.

Supports my prediction.



Bofferbrauer on 01 July 2015
ethomaz said:

@hiska-kun on GAF posted two table comparing montly sales of the consoles that exactly shows how good PS4 is doing this year compared with last year.

Supports my prediction.

I dunno

Your prediction will probably be true until august, as the baseline was very low last year for the PS4. It got much better afterwards, so unless the PS4 makes a big jump it won't be able to keep the 50% plus up after that.