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As you can see by yourself on your graphic, the PS4 had some big spring with many big releases, but since then the difference is quite low, and big hitters like what we had there are more than just a bit lacking for the course of the rest of the year. So I doubt the 1.5 Million will be achieved, and it's defenetly not a conservative number.

Wii U looks flat because it had lost much during spring, and retaken almost all the lost terrain since the launches of Xenoblade Cronicles X and Splatoon. Considering what else is coming this year, Wii U ending up YoY by quite some margin is not impossible and 750k not overly optimistic