I was always saying no,so no again!It dropped by 60% from 2013 to 2014(7.1m->3.1m) almost what I had predicted back in June 2014 when I came here and some mocked me!
2015 might be worse or the drop will be somewhat smaller,like 40-50%,we already see it in Japan!

Units shipped total is between 86.5-87.5m,as of March 31th 2015,FYQ4 shipments were down from 700k of last FY to 400k,so going by this thrend,shipments for FY15 will be 1.5-2m,putting ps3 to 88m-89.5 units shipped(as of March 2016)it would need by then 11.5-12m shipments to reach the 100m milestone,this is impossible because there is no time and room for further growth,ps1 had 10 years LT and ps2 11 year LT,ergo ps3 will be discontinued either 2016 or 2017,ps4 success kills the legs of it(as I expected),people focus on new gen and developers are starting to abandon last gen!
Let me note what I recently saw and puzzled,sony's sales forecast for FY15 doesn't include ps3(and psv).This must mean something....

As for the price drop,sony is in recovery phase and must be reluctant(or unable) to take a loss to push a console that is near to its end,and ps3 price has already gone too much low,there is no margin for extra price drops,I think!

very very unlikely, as much as they will get cheaper and cheaper to sell off stock, there are just going to be too many ps3/360s floating around 2nd hand stores from gamers upgrading to the ps4/X1 so thrifty shoppers who want a cheap system wont be buying a new boxed ps3 regardless of price cuts. Doubt it would get passed the 90m mark.

not until the last unit sells for the previous one.  There are two races on different tracks still going on now.  One race is closer to its conclusion and most are watching the second one closer but the first race is still ongoing.

While I give you props for the prediction, did you predict that they wouldn't drop the price again?  Sony is baffling me with this year after year.  How can the 12gb still be the only one that is $200?  People want the PS3 they can actually use to be under $200.  Hell it should just be cut $100 at this point and give them a big boost in devloping nations and for cheapos in the US and Europe zones.

Are there really that many people waiting on a price cut from Sony for new ps3's tho? when you can go to somewhere like https://uk.webuy.com/search/index.php?stext=*§ion=&catid=810 and those places offer 12 month warranty on used hardware as well so it's good for the next year from them.

I just think that if people want a good bargain and a ps3 they have a lot of methods of getting one for under 100 right now.

edit - heh, keep in mind that the dualshock 3 still costs in the 50-60euros region new from Sony, if a new ps3 system was 100 then it would mean that the console itself had a value in the 20euros mark when you factor in hdmi/power leads included

No. Wii won. Is time to accept. In fact, 2012 was te year to accept that

Nope. Unless they bundle it with a PS4.

I agree that's almost guaranteed, but it will only be 100% defined after both PS3 and 360 get discontinued. If, by a miracle, one of them managed to pass the Wii, it would be declared the winner.

The only way to define a winner is the final shipment data. Any data before is a random pick. You can't say "hey, it ended here", unless all three are discontinued.

That's the situation in USA/EU/Japan. But on third world countries, it still is going. PS4 and X1 are too expensive and people are still buying last gen consoles.Let's take Brazil as an example.

Used hardware isn't massively popular here. Why? Because people would rather buy a new one so they can pay in installments. That's very important here. And unlike in USA, big stores never sell used items, so you have to go to a small shop and pay it in cash. Reconditioned items aren't a thing here and are generally not well received.

The kind of bargains that you say won't happen here. Massive discounts is something that the 3rd world consumer will never see. Discounts are only like 10% or they just add a game with the console and that's it. A price cut can make wonders. When the PS1 and the PS2 were finally discontinued, they costed around R$ 300 here. A PS3 costs R$ 900. R$ 400 is a magic price point here, so there is a lot of room yet.

Look, Torok, I get it. You're scared because you're going to lose our bet. ;)