For me:
Halo 5 >>>>>>>>>> UC4. Halo wins this no debate.
Forza and GT is a tie, but I'm not really into either. Forza Horizon is now the superior game in racing and we'll probably see FH3 in 2016.
Rare >>> R&C (No interest in R&C. I love insomniac but R&C is there weakest game and I already po'd Rare for $20)
I'm not really interested in Fable or SFV but Fable is FTP so I'll give it the nod here.
Gears is one of my favorite games but with BC coming and Gears basically confirmed for it, I see no reason to buy the UE.
I don't really understand the hype for TLG. What was shown at e3 looked boring and I honestly have zero interest in the game.
Rise is a big one but it might come to PS4 eventually so I won't give MS too many points for it (even though I wouldn't be surprised if it didn't come to PS4).
Horizon is probably the wild card. Looked awesome at E3 and was one of the best new game annoucnements. But there is not enough info on it yet for me to give PS4 the win based on this one game alone. There's also a really good chance we don't see it until 2017.
OP question is a pretty easy win for MS right now. I know there are very few X1 owners on here so most probably disagreed. For me the real question should be X1 2016 vs. PS4 2016. MS will push to make sure Gears 4 hits next holiday. Add in Recore, Scalebound, Crackdown, Forza Horizon 3, Quantum Break and maybe even Phantom Dust and X1 has a solid 2016 lineup as well. It's somewhat ironic because I bought a PS4 at launch and waited till last holiday to buy my X1 thinking the PS4 would have the better games library but now I'm starting to feel the opposite.