We are here to predict, aren´t we? So why not predict fictional markets? This one is about EA making a console, what a great fictional market to start, isn´t it?

 

So... There are some rumours about EA making a console in 2010 and while I don´t think it will happen I like thinking about this scenario a lot. What do ou think the market would look like if EA bought Take Two and released a console?

 

Here are my thoughts:

 

America: EA is popular in the US, but I wouldn´t expect it to get a lot of the pie - 10 million units is the best number I can think of - 7.5 million is more realistic, though. 

Europe: Soccer is popular in Europe but Madden and others aren´t over here - so I´d go with 5 million units as a maximum in Europe / Others.

 Japan: If you thought Xbox numbers were bad, wait for an EA console to be released in Japan. It would probably sell about 10 units a week and get less than 0.1% market share -  somehow funny to think of

 Worldwide this would be a maximum of 12.5 million consoles sold and Jeez, even that is high! On the other hand... EA would go bankrupt if they released a console, right? 

 

What is more interesting, though, is how this would effect the other manufacturers:

Nintendo - erm, well... I´d expect Nintendo to lose exactly 10 units of sales over a 5 year period. Those 10 units are EA execs not wanting to help their competitiors... otherwise, I´d rather see Nintendo gaining sales because Sony and Microsoft would lose games people would rather buy on their consoles.

Sony - The PS brand would clearly lose some sales but not that much. I´d say maybe 3 million units in the US as the platform would be less attractive while Nintendo wouldn´t be affected that much and maybe 2.5 million units in Europe and exactly 1294 units in Japan (I can´t tell you why, unfortunately, I am under embargo).

Microsoft - Well, Microsoft would be the most effected I think - 5 million in the US and 2 million in Europe, maybe. Was the 360 released in Japan already?

 

So, what are your thoughts? Give me some market analysis even Patcher wouldn´t dream of! 

Basically I agree with you. The 360 in particular would be really feeling the squeeze and might even force MS out of the console business - or, they'll buy out EA.

Sony would lose some sales but remain viable. But a major 4th competitor might scuttle any chance of the PS3 ever achieving a net profit.

Nintendo has never relied on 3rd parties and while this will affect them too, it'll actually help them remain dominate this generation.

You bring up a good point about Japan. EA is weak in Japan and they know it. Maybe EA would seek to buy-out or partner with a major Japanese studio? Sega? Capcom? Konami?

As for Europe, I'd except them to buy-out Ubisoft too and that'd help Europe sales.

Well since FIFA only sells the rights if the game appears on all consoles I think no-one would lose market share. For Madden it's the same I heard.

I predict that the biggest fanboys of either console will join forces against the evil EA.

You can't sell a console on GTA alone, with maybe Need for Speed. The rest of EA's IP is very casual and sells very well, but you need the hardcore early adaptors to get the console off the ground.

Nintendo, Sony and Microsoft have these kinds of fans that will buy their console early.

Well, if EA takes Take Two and Rockstar stays... Then that would definitely be a killer-combo for them to release a console.

The problem however is that they'd have like 30% of the total development-resources available worldwide... As such, making them SO powerfull that almost anyone would/should buy their console and develop for it in order to make a profit!

 

I think Nintendo however could remain a fierce competitor versus EA because they are like 'the opposite' of eachother... I don't know how long they will last though because EA has TONS of money... (Nintendo does have too nowadays but EA is bigger i believe...)

 

My opinion is that EA shouldn't be given more marketshare because it's getting TOO big... Like in, big companies cannot compete with EA any longer because EA will be the Microsoft or the Google of the homeconsoles... 

 

I'm already in a EA boycot after i bought SSX and The Godfather for Wii so i'd rather stick with Nintendo or Sony instead of EA... EA stinks! 

BengaBenga said: Well since FIFA only sells the rights if the game appears on all consoles I think no-one would lose market share. For Madden it's the same I heard. I predict that the biggest fanboys of either console will join forces against the evil EA. You can't sell a console on GTA alone, with maybe Need for Speed. The rest of EA's IP is very casual and sells very well, but you need the hardcore early adaptors to get the console off the ground. Nintendo, Sony and Microsoft have these kinds of fans that will buy their console early.

 Of course, this is just a fictional prediction and so I just went with the idea that EA had those games exclusive on their console.

BengaBenga said: Well since FIFA only sells the rights if the game appears on all consoles I think no-one would lose market share. For Madden it's the same I heard. I predict that the biggest fanboys of either console will join forces against the evil EA. You can't sell a console on GTA alone, with maybe Need for Speed. The rest of EA's IP is very casual and sells very well, but you need the hardcore early adaptors to get the console off the ground. Nintendo, Sony and Microsoft have these kinds of fans that will buy their console early.

Benga you always say in these EA console topics that Madden and FIFA can't be single platform. Do you have a link to back that up or is it word of mouth? I'm not saying I don't believe you, but I googled it and found nothing regarding the subject.

As far as an EA console, it would fail. Another manufacturer would have to take the reins as console maker with EA being head developer, i.e. Apple. Apple is a trusted name brand with reliable hardware that could sell to the American and European audience. Japan would probably be out of the question but I would see a definite shift in market share in NA and EU with Apple stripping both Sony and Microsoft of huge chunks of that core market. Probably not in their first attempt but their second one.

 

I say about 2 million console sold, They will launch the console at a ridiculous $699 dollars with very little third-party support. They will get named "Product of the year" by Time Magazine but never really establish themselves as a true competitor

wait a minute... all this seems pretty familiar. :P

kingofwale said: I say about 2 million console sold, They will launch the console at a ridiculous $699 dollars with very little third-party support. They will get named "Product of the year" by Time Magazine but never really establish themselves as a true competitor wait a minute... all this seems pretty familiar. :P

It's sort of ridiculous to presume any EA console would fail like the 3DO. Do you not assume they would have learned their lesson, not only from themselves but from the backlash of consumers towards the PS3? You also don't seem to recall the market back in those early to mid nineties. There was a flood of consoles trying to vie for market share and many got picked off either because of bad design or bad management. I actually can recall the two market leaders SEGA and Nintendo sharing in those failures with the SEGA CD/32 X and the Virtual Boy. It is a more conservative market nowadays and only those with large pockets will enter this console race. EA does not have those pockets, so if this comes to fruitation, expect a major partner taking the majority brunt of the expenses while EA plays lead developer.

 

kingofwale said: I say about 2 million console sold, They will launch the console at a ridiculous $699 dollars with very little third-party support. They will get named "Product of the year" by Time Magazine but never really establish themselves as a true competitor wait a minute... all this seems pretty familiar. :P

You are not some kind of 3DO fanboy, are you?

it will do bad.