shikamaru317 said:
AngryLittleAlchemist said:
Too optimistic. Nintendo and Playstation don't have such release schedules.
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Not really, that release schedule is pretty reasonable based on current rumors and leaks. Ninja Theory was specifically bought because they have 3 teams capable of putting out AA games with AAA quality graphics (MS wants to have a ton of exclusives releasing each year in order to push permanent Gamepass subscribers), the rumor is that Ninja will be putting out a game each year, giving each of the 3 teams 3 years to develop their games. Their first Xbox exclusive is rumored to be announced at XO18 next month, with a release in 2019. If the yearly schedule holds true, then their 2nd Xbox exclusive releasing in early 2020 could happen as well. The next Xbox is likely to release Holiday 2020, so having 2 first party launch titles wouldn't be surprising. We've already heard rumors that Halo Infinite is coming in 2020 as a next gen title, and Forza Motorsport 8 is basically confirmed to be delayed a year to launch on next gen now. As for the Fable Reboot from Playground's 2nd studio, it entered pre-production in late 2017, and is now in full production with the studio staffing up to AAA size by the end of 2018. That will give it part of 2018, all of 2019, all of 2020, and part of 2021 in development time if it releases Q1-Q2 2021, plenty for a AAA game.
The only one there that I'm unsure of is the Rare new IP, we know it was in development even before Sea of Thieves released, but I haven't heard any rumors about how far along in development it is, the scale of the game, or anything else about it really, could release sooner than Q2 2020, could release later.
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I'll admit I'm not as caught up with "rumors" and "leaks" as you may be ... however, you also responded with a lot of stuff that I don't fundamentally disagree with. My bad perhaps, for giving such a bare-bone reply to work with.
-I'm assuming this is the release schedule for Next Box given that it starts at 2020, right? So why would a Ninja Theory game be the exclusive to launch a console? That's a huge risk, and really the only way I see that being a viable strategy is if Ninja Theory is using practically all it's staff to make something really impressive ... the kind of thing that wouldn't be that far off from a Santa Monica production, for example. Unless I'm mistaken and that's actually just a release before the Next Box ... which would be kind of odd given the rest of the titles are Next Box centric (though Halo Infinite will probably be on Xbox One). But ok, let's say even then it was just a release list and that wasn't necessarily the release of the Next Box. Why would they release a Ninja Theory game onto the Xbox One right before the next console comes out? Ok, sure, Xbox has done that before (as have all console manufacturers). But that just seems like a waste of potential, even if it gets a Next Box port/remaster. I think Microsoft knows they really need to play their cards well ... whereas you could throw a Halo or Gears onto 360 before Xbox One's release (which even then wasn't wise to do considering they had a lack of development studios) because those were established franchises, Ninja Theory's entire audience is waiting - holding their breath to see if Microsoft uses them properly. It's not something you should just throw on there. It's a collaboration that has to prove itself.
-Ninja Theory releasing a game every year is incredibly unrealistic. Though this is not even a point made by I LOVE GIGGS. Granted a 2019 exclusive actually makes some sense - they were definitely working on something almost immediately after Hellblade, which is true for most studios after releasing a title. But I really doubt that Ninja Theory would be able to make a new title every year. The earliest would probably be one title every 1.5 years. Which would be 4 games for one console generation at the absolute most, but even that is doubtful.
-Yeah, two exclusives at launch is incredibly likely. I agree. Wouldn't even be surprised by three if they convince an indie studio to make a title.
-A "big game" every quarter is too much. Playstation and Nintendo can not even handle that. Even if Microsoft ends up having more studios than Playstation, that does not give enough time for most of their studios (which would be working on AAA titles, unlike what supposedly Ninja Theory is doing) to make games. Now, a big game every quarter in 2020/2021 makes a little sense. But every year? Absolutely no way. Unless we're changing our definition of "big game". That kind of strategy just isn't viable to be honest. It also wouldn't help Microsoft. I mean, if you come out of the gate swinging in the first year or two, people can look past a few months of no exclusives. Happened with the Switch. Releasing titles that are rushed to market for some arbitrary "we need a big game every quarter" goal is nonsensical, and could potentially do harm to the brand. In addition, Xbox and Playstation live in large part on third parties. Of course, Xbox can't do that forever, but when you consider than Xbox One has some third parties for Game Pass ... that's already a motive given to consumers to buy an Xbox and subscribe.
Anyways to finish off, what I was mostly disagreeing with was just the "big game" every quarter thing. The rest, take it or leave it. Most of the predictions sound reasonable. But I wouldn't think Microsoft would "blow their load" that quickly. That's half their high profile titles in the first year.
