at least 70 million. Now is selling at a 12-13 million/year rate.

end 2007: 9m
end 2008: 22m
end 2009: 37m
end 2010: 51m
end 2011: 62m
end 2012: 70m

and then fade slowly

this if all goes well

gamerdtr said: It does not matter which console sold the most units in a generation. What determines whether a console is a success or not is if a company makes profit from it. In a Sony financial report released a while back it stated that Sony is now out of the red with the PS3. Since they are out of the red now and since the games are only getting bigger and better things can only get better for the PS3 hence the PS3 is not a failure. Guess that makes XBOX 1 a failure. No matter if more than 30 million people bought it and if great games came out for it. If a console does not generate profit it is a failure.

Sony stated that SCE is out of the red, not PS3. I think it's safe to assume that PS2 and PSP made at least 500M profit last calendar quarter, which would mean that PS3 made 350M loss. Xbox sold 25M, not 30. But you're right, it was a failure. @London calling: I think you should guarantee atleast 8%, not 80. @John Doe: But it's not going to sell as you pointed. PS3 most propably spikes this year. And sales decline faster than you estimated.

I say the PS3 will outsell the PS2. The Wii might as well. The only question for the Wii is how well it will sell when it cost the same as the other two consoles. (that figure will probably be $199 or $179)

Right now the PS3 is tracking the PS2, and if the price drops and games can cone out at the same steady stream, Sony can make sure all have BC (still posable), And this thing stays the cheapest BD player, I don't see why it won't. The market is way up in general.

For all you that say "no way", what evidence are you using to determine that? Currently, it's following in the same foot steps. There is absolutely no evidence to say it won't.

bdbdbd said: gamerdtr said: It does not matter which console sold the most units in a generation. What determines whether a console is a success or not is if a company makes profit from it. In a Sony financial report released a while back it stated that Sony is now out of the red with the PS3. Since they are out of the red now and since the games are only getting bigger and better things can only get better for the PS3 hence the PS3 is not a failure. Guess that makes XBOX 1 a failure. No matter if more than 30 million people bought it and if great games came out for it. If a console does not generate profit it is a failure.   Sony stated that SCE is out of the red, not PS3. I think it's safe to assume that PS2 and PSP made at least 500M profit last calendar quarter, which would mean that PS3 made 350M loss. Xbox sold 25M, not 30. But you're right, it was a failure. @London calling: I think you should guarantee atleast 8%, not 80. @John Doe: But it's not going to sell as you pointed. PS3 most propably spikes this year. And sales decline faster than you estimated.

 Why do you say that? Most think that FF XIII and GT 5 will be out next year, boosting sales world wide. There is also the Rockstar exclusives, Uncharted 2, next Ratchet, next team Ico project, GoW III and plenty of others to keep people interested in 2009. By then, the PS3's price will have decreased significantly, maybe even down to $300, the online service will be much refined, and there will be backwards compatibility. I think 2009 and 2010 will be the biggest years for the PS3

http://vgchartz.com/hwlaunch.php?cons1=PS2&reg1=Japan&cons2=PS2&reg2=Japan&cons3=PS3&reg3=Japan&weeks=104

http://vgchartz.com/hwlaunch.php?cons1=PS2&reg1=America&cons2=PS2&reg2=America&cons3=PS3&reg3=America&weeks=104

http://vgchartz.com/hwlaunch.php?cons1=PS2&reg1=Total+Other&cons2=PS2&reg2=Total+Other&cons3=PS3&reg3=Total+Other&weeks=104

 

As you can see, the PS3 is performing dramatically worse in Japan, dramatically worse in North America, and is tracking somewhat similarly in Europe (although it is difficult to tell being that that the chart is broken, early on the PS2 faced bad shortages in Europe, and the PS3/PS2 have different offsets in the year for when the systems launched). On top of that we know that even systems that "last" 10 years see the vast majority (75% to 90%) of their hardware sales in the first 5 to 6 years on the market; and the lifespan of a console is heavily determined by how well it sells in the first couple of years on the market.

With all that said, I expect the PS3 will sell at most to 40% of the PS2's levels in Japan and North America and overall will achieve 40% to 45% of the PS2's sales worldwide ...

TheRealMafoo said: I say the PS3 will outsell the PS2. The Wii might as well. The only question for the Wii is how well it will sell when it cost the same as the other two consoles. (that figure will probably be $199 or $179) Right now the PS3 is tracking the PS2, and if the price drops and games can cone out at the same steady stream, Sony can make sure all have BC (still posable), And this thing stays the cheapest BD player, I don't see why it won't. The market is way up in general. For all you that say "no way", what evidence are you using to determine that? Currently, it's following in the same foot steps. There is absolutely no evidence to say it won't.

As Happy Squrriel pointed out, every evidence points that PS3 isn't tracking nowhere near PS2. Wii is tracking pretty similarly with PS2. Only by using "statistical error", you can say PS3 is tracking similarly with PS2. You used PS3 tracking similarly with PS2 as proof that PS3 will outsell PS2, but Wii tracking, by that logic, more than 2:1 apparently isn't a proof that Wii will outsell PS2 2:1 LT? Actually, when Wii costs the same as the other 2 consoles at 179-199, means that Wii is outselling both competing consoles atleast 2:1 combined. Since Nintendo is in the best position to drop price. If Nintendo wants to go to pricewar (or Sony and M$ wants), we could be talking about 179-199 PS360 vs 79-99 Wii, and only one to make profit would be Nintendo. So, if PS360 would sell better on similar pricepoint, Wii can always drop in price. PS3 can't stay for long the cheapest BD player, especially when HD-DVD just got discontinued. I don't think the BDA members are happy when Sony is selling its BD players at loss, hurting its partners at BDA, and in the other hand, cheap BD players are coming. The faster Sony drops PS3 price, means that the 59-99 players enter stores faster that they otherwise would. @Munkeh: With what PS3 is going to spike in 2009 and 2010? GT5 and FF13 isn't really much. Rockstar doesn't really have big names besides GTA and Bully, which neither are exclusives. PS3 definately drops down to 300, but what it's going against? 150-300 Wii60, 150-250 BD players, 360 lineup and especially Wii lineup. Without bias of anykind, i can say it doesn't look too good for PS3, in terms of competition, spike for 2008 is actually very fair assumption, 3rd (calendar) year in the market, in 2008 it still is getting 3rd party exclusives and in 2008 it gets the biggest benefit from BD, before the cheap players arrive.

ps3 wont match the ps2 in sales. but it might have a chance in going near 100m.

but thats a BIG might