Agreed, I think they are centering it around a new gimmick based on the comments Iwata is making (don't think of it as a traditional successor). That could be good or terrible, but it likely also means it won't be the traditional type of device some people want. I think it's a Fusion platform that will let them share their main IP titles (Mario Kart, Mario 3D, Mario 2D, Smash, Animal Crossing, Pokemon, DKC) but there will be hardware gimmicks on top of that to differniate the two so to encourage people to buy both. 

To be honest it probably is the best way to go. I don't think there's room for a third company doing the same thing as Sony and MS, and even if there was, I don't think Nintendo is willing to spend the type of money on marketing/third party deals that the other two do to be seen as a credible alternative from Playstation/XBox to non-Nintendo fans. 

They just better hope the gimmick this time is more interesting than the tablet controller or 3D screen. 

Don't worry, everybody on VGC knows that .

I honestly hope they go with a more traditional aproach, with a regular home console with a regular controller (it could be a redesigned WiiU Pro controller) and a regular handheld, both designed to meet the wishes of Nintendo's own studios and not third parties (that wouldn't come either, so why bother), at a low(ish) price and sold for a profit.

It's some kind of tablet device. I'm telling you guys. It's not ONLY a dedicated games machine.

How would a ND about an entirely new platform be pointless?

I was talking about the first of your Directs, the one in Q1 2016, no the one at E3 where Nintendo will of course talk about it.

And it doesn't make sense because that would spoil much of the surprise of the console. It would, for example, let us know quite clearly if we are talking about a handheld, a home console or something in between.

That's why GDC is a better place, because they can talk about what they want to achieve or what has been their inspiration for their next machine(s) without revealing anything. And they can't do that on a Direct, where they have to show something.

They only have so much time at E3 and they want that to be about the games.

So in Q1 they want to drum up buzz and talk leading up to E3 and especially in March for FY financials.

So having a ND that focuses on the next hardware platform, its overall vision, and outlines the full feature set is a perfect way to do that. Then they follow that up with game teases until E3 when they show off all the games in full glory.

They sort of did this with Wii and Wii U launches but too far apart as it was E3 to E3. MSony did this exact thing with the launches of Xbox1 and PS4.

It makes a lot of sense and I'm positive its what Nintendo will do.

Q1 2016 - ND to showcase new platform, its software, its features (partly), and mobile interaction.

E3 2016 - Final "secret" feature(s) plus slew of games for launch period of Q4 2016 and first half of 2017.

Revealing all the info about NX in 2016 only makes sense if they launch it in 2016 too, something we still ignore if it will happen or not.

And just because Sony and MSoft talked first about the OS an other aspects of their consoles before showing the actual mahines, doesn't mean that Nintendo has to do the same. They can reveal the machine(s) first and then talk about its OS and Online aspects later through Directs or other gaming Events (GamesCom, their pre-TGS show, VGAwards, etc.).

And before anything else, let's not forget that Nintendo didn't say that they would show NX in 2016, his words were

http://www.eurogamer.net/articles/2015-03-17-nintendo-nx-is-new-hardware-with-a-brand-new-concept

As proof that Nintendo maintains strong enthusiasm for the dedicated game system business, let me confirm that Nintendo is currently developing a dedicated game platform with a brand-new concept under the development codename "NX". It is too early to elaborate on the details of this project, but we hope to share more information with you next year.

Nothing in that suggests that NX will be revealed, completed and launched within 2016-early 2017. It seems to hint that they will reveal what it is about (home console, handheld, both), some of its features and the goals they want to achieve with it (or them).

Except the fact that Nintendo usually take 2 E3 to release most systems. It is rare for them to take one and it is usually a handheld system. As far back as the N64 they usually release information about the system the first E3 and then the next year have a "release party" for it at the next E3, so it usually 18 months when they usually share the information to when they finally release the system. And the only time they have broke this cycle it was for a handheld system.

In addition if the NX is going to anything along the lines of a fusion concept system(s) the release cycle may be longer so they can make sure their are no problems with it. (Plus since they no "familar" with the longer HD development cycle this may impact the release cycle also.)

I'm not going to argue with you, mainly because you are just proving my point.

What superchunk said was that Nintendo would give the first detail of the console at Q1 2016 and then unveil the console at E2 2016, a vision that I don't share. And you just pointed out that Nintendo has never done that.

With that said, while the 3DS could more or less keep going for a year without Nintendo's games to support it, the WiiU can't. So if NX is a home console replacement, they better launch it soon after the reveal.

The key phrase here is "usually"; there is nothing usual about the Wii U's market situation ever since it released so we can pretty much throw convention out the window as a measure of which norms and trends will dictate the transition and release of new hardware this time around.