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Forums - Sales Discussion - Do you still predict +20,000,000 PS4 and +10,000,000 million XBO this year?

 

:D

PS4 will sell +20,000,000... 34 15.96%
 
PS4 will sell +20,000,000... 80 37.56%
 
PS4 will sell under 20,00... 34 15.96%
 
PS4 will sell under 20,00... 64 30.05%
 
Total:212
microspot said:
JustBeingReal said:

I think XB1 will have sold between 7.5M and 8M by the end of the year and I think PS4 will top 20M.


ironic to see this "prediction" and your nickname
ps4 will outsell xb1 more than  2.5:1 in 2015

while last year, ps4 outsold xb1 by just 1.8 - 2 :1

 

at least your 8m xb1 figure does't seem to be way off. but 20m+ ps4 won't happen


There's nothing ironic about it!

Sony should get a huge boost this year, compared to the last when all is said and done.

They managed to sell nearly 14.3M units with the system being the highest price it will ever be, weakest library of exclusives, 3rd party games, indies and weakest bundles it will ever have also.

Sony always drops their home systems by $100 for it's 1st drop in price, PS4 has been profitable much sooner than any Playstation console in history & is generating a lot more software sales too, there's really no reason for that level of a pricecue too not happen.

PS4 has many times the exclusives compared to last year, with a far stronger line-up, better console exclusives and the 3rd party games coming this year look much better than last year's offerings.

 

When you look at it achieving an additional 5.8M with a $100 pricecut, multiple times the exclusives compared to last year,  way more games could can't get on any other console, 3rd party marketing deals for the major new big games, generally a far better situation within the market compared to last year, that's not really such a ridiculous boost.



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JustBeingReal said:
microspot said:


ironic to see this "prediction" and your nickname
ps4 will outsell xb1 more than  2.5:1 in 2015

while last year, ps4 outsold xb1 by just 1.8 - 2 :1

 

at least your 8m xb1 figure does't seem to be way off. but 20m+ ps4 won't happen

 

They managed to sell nearly 14.3M units with the system being the highest price it will ever be, weakest library of exclusives, 3rd party games, indies and weakest bundles it will ever have also.

Sony always drops their home systems by $100 for it's 1st drop in price, PS4 has been profitable much sooner than any Playstation console in history & is generating a lot more software sales too, there's really no reason for that level of a pricecue too not happen.


Ill give u the point of highest price it will ever be and weakest first party libary.
But weakest third Party libary and weakest bundles it no ture, or at lest very debateable. 
There were many great third Party games last year and also good value bundles with 2 free games, some ps+ or free extra controllers etc. (even better ones in europe, than us)

And im happy to repeat myself, but in Q1 this year, the ps4 is already down YoY in the US and Japan
I said Q2 can easily be up YoY, but Q2 is always the weakest console sales quarter. So this wont effect the overall numbers by much.

No we go to Q3. Q3 has MGS, while last year Q3 had Destiny.
If there will be no pricecut in Q3, the US sales will be down YoY. Japan schould be up, because of MGS. Europe is hard to guees, but probably flat, or down too. Just remeber, that Q3 was one of the strongest in Europe. 
U need an example? Ps4 LTD sales in Germany were at 540k (or 570k, i don't remeber exactly) end of July, while they reached 1 million on October 21st.


So its up to the holiday quarter to get the big numbers and huge YoY grow.
And yes, i highly doubt they will sell an additional 5 million Ps4 in Q4 2015. Even with an possible pricecut to 299



microspot said:

Ill give u the point of highest price it will ever be and weakest first party libary.
But weakest third Party libary and weakest bundles it no ture, or at lest very debateable. 
There were many great third Party games last year and also good value bundles with 2 free games, some ps+ or free extra controllers etc. (even better ones in europe, than us)

And im happy to repeat myself, but in Q1 this year, the ps4 is already down YoY in the US and Japan
I said Q2 can easily be up YoY, but Q2 is always the weakest console sales quarter. So this wont effect the overall numbers by much.

No we go to Q3. Q3 has MGS, while last year Q3 had Destiny.
If there will be no pricecut in Q3, the US sales will be down YoY. Japan schould be up, because of MGS. Europe is hard to guees, but probably flat, or down too. Just remeber, that Q3 was one of the strongest in Europe. 
U need an example? Ps4 LTD sales in Germany were at 540k (or 570k, i don't remeber exactly) end of July, while they reached 1 million on October 21st.

So its up to the holiday quarter to get the big numbers and huge YoY grow.
And yes, i highly doubt they will sell an additional 5 million Ps4 in Q4 2015. Even with an possible pricecut to 299

Dec. 28, 2013: 4.2 million
Mar. 2, 2014: 6 million

Difference: 1.8 million (64 days) = 28.125K/day

Jan. 4, 2015: 18.5 million
Mar. 1, 2015: 20.2 million

Difference: 1.7 million (56 days) = 30.157K/day

It we extrapolate 2015 to 64 days, the PS4 would have sold 1.943 million units or +7.94% YOY. This is interesting since while the PS4 was down YOY for the first two months in the US and Japan, it seems that (at least for the first two months) all the other markets were picking up the slack. March is a very interesting month because of the PS4's launch in China. Whatever boost the system received from that market could be enough to keep it up YOY or even.

I think the PS4 can be up YOY for Q2 2015 because Q2 2014 was pretty slow. The biggest release back then was Watch Dogs. However, we recently got Mortal Kombat X whom Sony has marketing rights. For point of reference, Mortal Kombat IX sold ~1 million in April 2011 NPD. In May, there will be Final Fantasy X|X-2 HD and The Witcher III followed by Batman: Arkham Knight in June. Batman, especially, will move PS4 sales because of both the limited and standard edition bundles. With this many releases compared to last year, I think the difference will be noticeable.

Q3 2015 appears to have a more postiive outlook, as well. Last summer, the PS4 hardly had any games. However, this time, it'll be getting God of War III Remastered, the Journey/Flower/fl0w collection, Until Dawn, Everybody's Gone to the Rapture, and Tearaway Unfolded. It'll also get some smaller 3rd party games like Godzilla, J-Stars Victory Vs+, and One Piece: Pirate Warriors 3.



microspot said:
JustBeingReal said:

 

They managed to sell nearly 14.3M units with the system being the highest price it will ever be, weakest library of exclusives, 3rd party games, indies and weakest bundles it will ever have also.

Sony always drops their home systems by $100 for it's 1st drop in price, PS4 has been profitable much sooner than any Playstation console in history & is generating a lot more software sales too, there's really no reason for that level of a pricecue too not happen.


Ill give u the point of highest price it will ever be and weakest first party libary.
But weakest third Party libary and weakest bundles it no ture, or at lest very debateable. 
There were many great third Party games last year and also good value bundles with 2 free games, some ps+ or free extra controllers etc. (even better ones in europe, than us)

And im happy to repeat myself, but in Q1 this year, the ps4 is already down YoY in the US and Japan
I said Q2 can easily be up YoY, but Q2 is always the weakest console sales quarter. So this wont effect the overall numbers by much.

No we go to Q3. Q3 has MGS, while last year Q3 had Destiny.
If there will be no pricecut in Q3, the US sales will be down YoY. Japan schould be up, because of MGS. Europe is hard to guees, but probably flat, or down too. Just remeber, that Q3 was one of the strongest in Europe. 
U need an example? Ps4 LTD sales in Germany were at 540k (or 570k, i don't remeber exactly) end of July, while they reached 1 million on October 21st.


So its up to the holiday quarter to get the big numbers and huge YoY grow.
And yes, i highly doubt they will sell an additional 5 million Ps4 in Q4 2015. Even with an possible pricecut to 299


Re: The bolded part of your comment, all the games that came out last year are still on the market, plus there will be new games like a full Metal Gear Open World game, exclusive to current gen Batman, The Witcher 3, Battlefront, it's going to have a snowball effect, with such a huge amount of games that aren't available on last gen systems, really there's no comparison or at the very least those titles are adding to the appeal of the current gen and PS4 will unquestionably have sales preference for those games.

 

PS4 has a huge chunk of exclusives coming between Jan and September, that's where the YOY growth is largely going to be, with major releases happening there, both exclusive and 3rd party multiplat.

PS4 doesn't have to sell an additional 5 million in Q4 compared to last year, it's going to sell more than that across the next 7-8 months, because that's when the majority of the new games are coming out.

Aura made a good list, there's a lot more games compared to last year.



Idk, but PS4 will sell much, much better than X1.



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microspot said:
JustBeingReal said:

 

They managed to sell nearly 14.3M units with the system being the highest price it will ever be, weakest library of exclusives, 3rd party games, indies and weakest bundles it will ever have also.

Sony always drops their home systems by $100 for it's 1st drop in price, PS4 has been profitable much sooner than any Playstation console in history & is generating a lot more software sales too, there's really no reason for that level of a pricecue too not happen.


Ill give u the point of highest price it will ever be and weakest first party libary.
But weakest third Party libary and weakest bundles it no ture, or at lest very debateable. 
There were many great third Party games last year and also good value bundles with 2 free games, some ps+ or free extra controllers etc. (even better ones in europe, than us)

And im happy to repeat myself, but in Q1 this year, the ps4 is already down YoY in the US and Japan
I said Q2 can easily be up YoY, but Q2 is always the weakest console sales quarter. So this wont effect the overall numbers by much.

No we go to Q3. Q3 has MGS, while last year Q3 had Destiny.
If there will be no pricecut in Q3, the US sales will be down YoY. Japan schould be up, because of MGS. Europe is hard to guees, but probably flat, or down too. Just remeber, that Q3 was one of the strongest in Europe. 
U need an example? Ps4 LTD sales in Germany were at 540k (or 570k, i don't remeber exactly) end of July, while they reached 1 million on October 21st.


So its up to the holiday quarter to get the big numbers and huge YoY grow.
And yes, i highly doubt they will sell an additional 5 million Ps4 in Q4 2015. Even with an possible pricecut to 299


ps4 down 20% CYQ1 2015 already
doesn't look like it will be up until the holiday quarter or the frist real pricecut

u will be right, man