It's hard to predict the success of a new console. Sony failed in their prediction with the PS3, and obviously didn't want to repeat that now. Had Sony pushed those exclusives to PS4, PS3 would've looked completely dead and if PS4 would have failed, Sony would have been in a very dire situation. That is, I think it was the right decision to release those games on PS3. Not so sure about exclusivity, but then again, those games wouldn't have made PS4 look too good as cross-generation titles, so they could have actually done more harm than good.

God of War and Gran Turismo should have been on Vita, that's the system that really needed exclusives, it's too late now but in 2013 it still had hope of being salvaged.

No not really...
The long-term support for PS3 sent out a message which benefited the PS4 indirectly.

TLOU still got remastered and sold millions on both systems.