True a price cut would help a lot, but I feel GoW3 and Until Dawn wont do much boosting. MGS5 should have a nice boost.

That's a tall order; it would basically need to sell neck-and neck with what the Wii did in 2008 during the dreaded summer months, which seems quite unlikely. It would need to improve about 100k for every week of summer to keep that pace, or show some truly drastic improvement in the spring and early fall; or preferably both.
I know I greatly underestimated the PS4 last year and I do think it will show yoy growth but I think the vast majority of this growth will come from a much stronger holiday season, first and foremost, possibly partly due to a price cut to answer the One in the NA territories.
Also; for the first six weeks or so of 2015, counting from the last half-week of December, compared to the same period last year, the PS4 is more or less exactly flat, at around 1.4 million, this does not bode well for such growth in the slowest sales period of the year (summer).

So, I guess what I'm saying is that I have to disagree. I could be wrong, wouldn't be the first time, but I disagree.

Tearaway Unfolded was said by Media Molecule to be coming in the summer too, so that should add to the summer boost.

We also have Fat Princess Adventures, Deep Down, Let it Die, Drawn To Death, Kill Strain & Ratchet & Clank that need to have release dates, those are all big studio games in one way or another.

There's also indies like Everybody's Gone to the Rapture, WiLD, Rime, Alienation, The Tomorrow Children and Shadow of the Beast which don't yet have release dates.

I don't expect all of these to come out before the end of September and some may be pushed back to 2016, but they're all PS4 exclusives and a decent chunk of them could get released by the deadline of this thread's sales prediction. Some of these games will probably be PS Plus titles, which could definitely move systems.

There's also timed exclusives like Hellblade and No Man's Sky which could make it out this year, along with console exclusives like The Vanishing of Ethan Carter, The Witness, Volume, Hollow Point, The Forest, Killing Floor 2, amongst others.

The list of games only coming to PS4 as a console and outright exclusives compared to last year is much bigger than 2014 was. 30M is definitely doable by the end of September, just based on the volume of games alone, if PS4 gets a price cut in June or July then it could shoot passed 30M early than September 30th, maybe even early September is feasible. It seems like a tall order, but PS4 has been beating the odds, with barely a fraction of the games that are coming over the next few months and it doesn't need to do 2M a month, every month to get there to hit 30M by September 30th, it just needs to average about 1.42 from the beginning of March to the deadline date to hit the mark. If the system gets a price cut in June or July down to $349/£299 then I think it's very likely to hit 30 million earlier than September 30th.

Japan also seems to be firmly on the rise compared to last year too, China sales figures aren't known yet, but they should also add to the momentum of the system. I guess we'll see in time though.

Yes no maybe.

Heavily dependent on. E3 and will a price cut happen then.

Id bet yes, PS4 is PS4 and its just a beast. BB is a nice hype up of quality and things to come.

If sony do a good E3 and have a price cut.... it could be possible.

I really hope Sony does a 100$ price drop at E3.

I feel like huge early sales of a consol, is the best way to go, and then recoup those slight loses on hardware though software and services.

Could be a mistake to not do a price cut at E3.

Yep, but id say a 50 cut is more a possible.  Its selling so damn well now, and with out any big guns.  

Why lose that 50, unless production can support the sale sincreses and estimates show its worth it.

With what?

I wouldn't be surprised if many of them released in the Summer as well.  Sony has changed the unwritten rule about not releasing anything in the Summer ever since TLoU.  It did 7m after releasing in the summer and now they seem so unafraid to release things that even Rocksteady has lost that strange fear of Summer.  Sure people go outside more but there's plenty of time left for video games (especially for adults).  That will give them an opportunity to avoid the usual Summer laul because usually nothing releases for 3 months and they just assume sales will dip.  Now if they just maintain or stay close to April and May sales that'll be a big boost compared to past console trends.

Maybe it wont do much boosting, but it will definetly decrese how much consoles take a dive during the summer.

How about a permanent $50 E3 pricut, and a temporary holliday $50. This would be crazzy.