Isn't this a bit like asking "can Forza pull in the Mario Kart audience?"

The games are totally different.

I dont think that is the case anymore. But you say they arent really clones but then also say that they are trying to appeal to the COD crowd. How so?

Maybe, you should try making that thread :D, but I think mk fanbase is already huge compared to splatoon.

well hang on now if we can conclude that a man who is insecure about his masculinity may shun certain media

then the inverse must also be possible, meaning that it must be possible that there are men who are unjustifiably secure in their masculinity to the point where it impacts on their decisions

and i can think of actual real world examples of this such as a friend who doesn't see the point in lifting weights

Saturated? You mean a little over half-a-dozen over the course of 2014? It doesn't seem that bad.

And of the games I can recall, only one (Titanfall) unquestionably intruded on CoD's territory. The only one that's debatable is Destiny, which from everything I've read and heard is more akin to MMO than anything CoD-related.

Yeah, because colorful and cheery games like Splatoon are typically associated with manly men. Give me a break.

You're not understanding the concept of insecurity at all. A grown man who is comfortable with who he is, enough to play a game that is often associated with either children or women, is not insecure. A grown man that shuns this type of media because it's associated with people other than masculine men, is insecure. There is a quote by C.S. Lewis that goes as follows: 

"Critics who treat 'adult' as a term of approval, instead of as a merely descriptive term, cannot be adult themselves. To be concerned about being grown up, to admire the grown up because it is grown up, to blush at the suspicion of being childish; these things are the marks of childhood and adolescence. And in childhood and adolescence they are, in moderation, healthy symptoms. Young things ought to want to grow. But to carry on into middle life or even into early manhood this concern about being adult is a mark of really arrested development. When I was ten, I read fairy tales in secret and would have been ashamed if I had been found doing so. Now that I am fifty I read them openly. When I became a man I put away childish things, including the fear of childishness and the desire to be very grown up.”

So, if a man is comfortable playing colorful and child-like games, he is not insecure in his masculinity because he doesn't give a shit. But if he sees other games as merely brown and gray and not worthy of his time, he isn't insecure, he's just extremely ignorant and doesn't have the knowledge to properly assess such games.

Are you really trying to argue that FPS games don't dominate the market? This is common sense. It's the most popular genre now, and has been for years. Sure, they're not all exactly the same, but they're there. It's just like in the NES/SNES days when the market was saturated with side scrollers (especially platformers).

One of my favourite quotes, and descriptive of an attitude that's sadly very prevalent in the gaming sector.

a.) again those with Wii Us are few and far between and the sales show it and if we are talking about the COD audience i imagine even less of them make up Wii U total ownership for reasons I have already stated.

b.) Pretty much same as above how much people even know anyone with a Wii U? I know two out of all may gaming friends and that is a small number and even then their is no gaurantee they will get the game and I dont imagine people will want to spend money on something they can only play sometimes.

c.) how much people can go to pax east? and there is no gaurantee that it will be there and if it is there is no gaurantee it will be there in playable form. Gamestope and other such places are more abundant BUT there is no reason to think that game will be at any of the booths. It seems those places only have the most popular games available to play and Splatoon isnt gonna be one of them at least most likely not playable. For instance I was able to play both Marios, Kart 8, DKTF but not Pikmin3

There are too many variables at play to make any of those options you listed as viable. 

There might be a few who may try it, but I don't think that they'll be coming in droves or anything.