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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Does Zelda U Have a Chance At 5Mil+ Lifetime WW? (Or Close To It)

I think it does, and it will probably outsell Skyward Sword



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Nuvendil said:
contestgamer said:
Skyward Sword bombed on a much,much larger install base. 3 Million LTD is what i predict.

Numbers taken in a vacuum without consideration for contributing factors are not an accurate means of guaging present or future potential for success.  Skyward Sword launched after the announcement of the Wii U during the Wii's weakest point in term's of image and appeal and, like most Nintendo games in that period, had next to no marketing of any kind.  And Skyward Sword took an unusual direction for combat and world structure while this Zelda is taking a more mainstream approach that is more in line with the traditional Zelda setup and also more potential to appeal to people outside the franchise.

 

Oh and that "bomb" with all those hampering issues sold 3.88mil.  So yeah.

 

The Wii's weakest point still wasn't as weak as any point in the Wii U's life. Zelda U will do better as far as percentage adoption goes, but no way it sells as much as TP does or even close to it.



Skullwaker said:
Nuvendil said:
Numbers taken in a vacuum without consideration for contributing factors are not an accurate means of guaging present or future potential for success.  Skyward Sword launched after the announcement of the Wii U during the Wii's weakest point in term's of image and appeal and, like most Nintendo games in that period, had next to no marketing of any kind.  And Skyward Sword took an unusual direction for combat and world structure while this Zelda is taking a more mainstream approach that is more in line with the traditional Zelda setup and also more potential to appeal to people outside the franchise.

 

Oh and that "bomb" with all those hampering issues sold 3.88mil.  So yeah.

Also, Skyward Sword required an additional peripheral. Much like Majora's Mask.


Yeah, that really killed Wiifit 2 sales



Skullwaker said:
Soundwave said:
Wii Sports Resort sold 33 million copies and it required the same add-on. 

 

And Wii Sports sold over 80 million. I wonder what made Wii Sports Resort sell 50 million copies less.


Lol, 50 million less still makes it one of the best selling games ever. Hardly in the same league as Zelda SS



contestgamer said:
Lol, 50 million less still makes it one of the best selling games ever. Hardly in the same league as Zelda SS

You're missing the point. It sold less because of the peripheral. I don't care how much more it sold than Zelda. I'm not comparing the sales of Zelda to Wii Sports. I'm comparing the effects of the required peripheral. It's generally known that Wii Sports games, excluding Club, sell more than Zelda. This doesn't support your argument. 



Official Tokyo Mirage Sessions #FE Thread

                                      

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Skullwaker said:
Soundwave said:
Having 2 fewer years of sales make a big difference. 

Even if we estimate WM+ users at "only" 45-50 million, 3.88 million for a Zelda game is relatively poor given that userbase IMO. 

Yeah, 2 years definitely would've made it sell 50m more copies. You got me there.

Also, in 2012, it was reported that Skyward Sword had sold 3.4 million. I highly doubt that it's only sold 400k since then. There's a possibility it's undertracked here. Even then, read what was said above. Skyward Sword was an extremely unconventional title in the series. Requiring motion controls, being extremely linear with an art style not appreciated by many people at the time. Zelda U doesn't fall into any of these categories. It has traditional controls, it's open world and not many people critique its graphical style (and most of the people that do don't even care for Zelda to begin with). 3D Zelda games always sell in the 3-7m range. Ones without peripherals always sell 4.5m+, regardless of install base.

 

Always? Zelda is not what it once was. Ocarina of Time is what made Zelda blockbuster series. TP captured the sales, but as a game was disappointing compared to OOT. Zelda SS was even more disappointing. Zelda does not have the fanfare it once had. People aren't waiting for Zelda to reshape the video game landscape as they once did with every sequel.

If Zelda U does what OOT once did, or even close to it then it'll sell 7 million. If it does what every other Zelda since MM did then it's not reaching 4 million.



contestgamer said:
Yeah, that really killed Wiifit 2 sales

It certainly killed Wii Fit U's sales after the casual craze ended.



Official Tokyo Mirage Sessions #FE Thread

                                      

tbone51 said:
contestgamer said:
Skyward Sword bombed on a much,much larger install base. 3 Million LTD is what i predict.


Hmm. SS i think is undertracked. At least thats what i recall, and i wouldn't cal SS a bomb at all. Yes it didn't do TP sales, but 4mil+is still huge. (Despite being on Wii Installbase).

Also LoZ WW HD last known was 1.22mil Sold (that figure i believe was a year ago) so its most likely around 1.5mil, if not higher so it'll be about 1.8mil-2.2mil lifetime. Thats a remake of a 4mil game! There is also Hyrule Warriors that did 1mil in 3months (well japan had 5months), i think 3mil is guaranteed at this point already. But hey i could be wrong!


4m is huge? Zelda is considered Nintendo's most treasured franchise alongside Mario. SS' sales impact is basically miniscule in the Wii's library or even compared to any blockbuster game on any console. We've had Ubisoft calling failures on 3 millions selling titles before. 4 million for a flagship series is peanuts.



contestgamer said:
Always? Zelda is not what it once was. Ocarina of Time is what made Zelda blockbuster series. TP captured the sales, but as a game was disappointing compared to OOT. Zelda SS was even more disappointing. Zelda does not have the fanfare it once had. People aren't waiting for Zelda to reshape the video game landscape as they once did with every sequel.

If Zelda U does what OOT once did, or even close to it then it'll sell 7 million. If it does what every other Zelda since MM did then it's not reaching 4 million.

Yes, always. Did I stutter? Ocarina of Time, Wind Waker and Twilight Princess have all sold 4.5m+. This is a fact. I don't care about your personal feelings. I'm talking facts. 

You can predict doom and gloom all you want. So many users and sites predicted that MK8 would be the lowest selling game in the franchise and would sell barely 2-3m lifetime. Now it's over 4m in less than a year. We have no idea how sales could go with any Wii U game at this point.



Official Tokyo Mirage Sessions #FE Thread

                                      

Skullwaker said:
contestgamer said:
Lol, 50 million less still makes it one of the best selling games ever. Hardly in the same league as Zelda SS

You're missing the point. It sold less because of the peripheral. I don't care how much more it sold than Zelda. I'm not comparing the sales of Zelda to Wii Sports. I'm comparing the effects of the required peripheral. It's generally known that Wii Sports games, excluding Club, sell more than Zelda. This doesn't support your argument. 


That peripheral has an install base larger than the entire install base of the Gamecube and N64  - combined. Zelda SS bombed on an install base that was still gigantic.