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Forums - Sales Discussion - PS4 v Wii U lifetime Japan sales.

Materia-Blade on 05 March 2015
dtrain85 said:

Why are people doubting that the PS4 will match the PS3 in sales because the PS4 is 'only' at 1.14M (1.19M according to mediacreate). Do you guys realize how many PS3's were sold in the first 14 months? 1.27M. That means the PS4 is only 80K behind with 9-10 more weeks of PS4 sales to go. And that's with 1 less holiday season, and virtually no software that appeals to the Japanese market (until recently).  In other words, the PS4 is currently selling at a slightly faster pace than the PS3.  And 2015 will be a much better year software wise with Persona 5, Bloodborne, SF:V, MGS5, FF etc, that have still yet to be released.  If the PS4 gets more developer support in Japan, there's no reason why the PS4 can't match or even exceed the PS3 in lifetime sales.

Ps3 was uber expensive and didn't get many games either. Ps4 doing worse is no good sign. it's also improbable that ps4 recovers significantly due to the decline of the home console market in japan.



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Materia-Blade on 05 March 2015
JustBeingReal said:
SpokenTruth said:
Right. So Media Create AND Famitsu were both wrong about PS4 but right about everything else? Retailers gave both Media Create and Famitsu correct numbers for everything but somehow under reported their PS4 sales? I mean, let's be real here.

Also, Wii U was at 1,212,088 at week 51.
http://www.vgchartz.com/weekly/41609/Japan/

As for facts, you don't have any. You're making assumptions. You're assuming Media Create and Famitsu are wrong. You're assuming they'll make adjustments. You're assuming any difference in the gap between VGC numbers and actual sales is a sizable enough proportion in Japan to give PS4 an extra 123,000 units sold. Meaning you are assuming retailers under reported over 120,000 units of 1 device yet were perfect with all others.

I said Media Create and Famitsu don't have complete information, they have partial information, but they haven't sourced every single retailer in Japan. It's not wrong to say that both of those analysis are incomplete, it's actually correct.

20.2M in sales is a fact, those numbers didn't all come from Europe and the US, Japan is responsible for a decent portion of them.

It's a fact that VG Chartz lists sales up to the 14th of Feb at 19.4M, meaning that overall VG Chartz numbers will need to be adjusted, that includes Japan sales.

I'm not assuming the retailers that Media Create and Famitsu get data from are under reporting, I'm saying that both of those sites don't have data from all retailers in the country and Sony are the most accurate source of their own sales data, they know how many consoles are sold through, I'm making no assumptions, it's a fact that adjustments will need to be made, it's what always happens when official sales figures are given by a platform holder.

"it's a fact that adjustments will need to be made, it's what always happens when official sales figures are given by a platform holder."

Not for japan numbers on vg chartz, for the reasons I already said.



dtrain85 on 05 March 2015
Materia-Blade said:
dtrain85 said:

Why are people doubting that the PS4 will match the PS3 in sales because the PS4 is 'only' at 1.14M (1.19M according to mediacreate). Do you guys realize how many PS3's were sold in the first 14 months? 1.27M. That means the PS4 is only 80K behind with 9-10 more weeks of PS4 sales to go. And that's with 1 less holiday season, and virtually no software that appeals to the Japanese market (until recently).  In other words, the PS4 is currently selling at a slightly faster pace than the PS3.  And 2015 will be a much better year software wise with Persona 5, Bloodborne, SF:V, MGS5, FF etc, that have still yet to be released.  If the PS4 gets more developer support in Japan, there's no reason why the PS4 can't match or even exceed the PS3 in lifetime sales.

Ps3 was uber expensive and didn't get many games either. Ps4 doing worse is no good sign. it's also improbable that ps4 recovers significantly due to the decline of the home console market in japan.

PS4 is not doing worse, it's selling at the same pace, if not slightly faster.

Yes the PS3 was expensive, but the PS3 had better software and had 2 holiday seasons in the first 14 months.  If the PS4 gets good dev support from local developers, I see no reason why it can't sell as many as the PS3 lifetime.



Teeqoz on 05 March 2015
Materia-Blade said:
JustBeingReal said:


Sigh. Those companies can only go by the data they're given by retailers that work with them, they're not complete figures.

VGChartz isn't a complete source, it's very much estimates based on data formulae, so yes adjustments will have to be made, because those estimates need adjustment.

Japan won't.


It won't but that doesn't matter. The PS4 will end up ahead of the Wii U lifetime anyway. If you're so confident, why won't you bet with me on it?



JustBeingReal on 05 March 2015
Materia-Blade said:
JustBeingReal said:
SpokenTruth said:
Right. So Media Create AND Famitsu were both wrong about PS4 but right about everything else? Retailers gave both Media Create and Famitsu correct numbers for everything but somehow under reported their PS4 sales? I mean, let's be real here.

Also, Wii U was at 1,212,088 at week 51.
http://www.vgchartz.com/weekly/41609/Japan/

As for facts, you don't have any. You're making assumptions. You're assuming Media Create and Famitsu are wrong. You're assuming they'll make adjustments. You're assuming any difference in the gap between VGC numbers and actual sales is a sizable enough proportion in Japan to give PS4 an extra 123,000 units sold. Meaning you are assuming retailers under reported over 120,000 units of 1 device yet were perfect with all others.

I said Media Create and Famitsu don't have complete information, they have partial information, but they haven't sourced every single retailer in Japan. It's not wrong to say that both of those analysis are incomplete, it's actually correct.

20.2M in sales is a fact, those numbers didn't all come from Europe and the US, Japan is responsible for a decent portion of them.

It's a fact that VG Chartz lists sales up to the 14th of Feb at 19.4M, meaning that overall VG Chartz numbers will need to be adjusted, that includes Japan sales.

I'm not assuming the retailers that Media Create and Famitsu get data from are under reporting, I'm saying that both of those sites don't have data from all retailers in the country and Sony are the most accurate source of their own sales data, they know how many consoles are sold through, I'm making no assumptions, it's a fact that adjustments will need to be made, it's what always happens when official sales figures are given by a platform holder.

"it's a fact that adjustments will need to be made, it's what always happens when official sales figures are given by a platform holder."

Not for japan numbers on vg chartz, for the reasons I already said.

VGChartz hasn't even taken into account Media Creates numbers, they have PS4 selling 19,629 for the week ending the 15th of Feb, Media Create says it sold 24,737, it's in the latest articles:

http://gematsu.com/2015/03/media-create-sales-22315-3115

http://www.vgchartz.com/weekly/42050/Japan/

 

It's also out for the weeks before that, like I said adjustments will be made, it happens all the time.



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Materia-Blade on 05 March 2015
dtrain85 said:
Materia-Blade said:

Ps3 was uber expensive and didn't get many games either. Ps4 doing worse is no good sign. it's also improbable that ps4 recovers significantly due to the decline of the home console market in japan.

PS4 is not doing worse, it's selling at the same pace, if not slightly faster.

Yes the PS3 was expensive, but the PS3 had better software and had 2 holiday seasons in the first 14 months.  If the PS4 gets good dev support from local developers, I see no reason why it can't sell as many as the PS3 lifetime.

The first holiday season was also launch period for both wii u and ps3, so it doesn't matter. By the way, ps4 had a much better launch than ps3 but quickly fell behind, meaning it's not the same pace. Ps3 required a big turnaround and selling decently even after 5 years on the market, wich is highly unlikely for ps4.



Materia-Blade on 05 March 2015
JustBeingReal said:
Materia-Blade said:

"it's a fact that adjustments will need to be made, it's what always happens when official sales figures are given by a platform holder."

Not for japan numbers on vg chartz, for the reasons I already said.

VGChartz hasn't even taken into account Media Creates numbers, they have PS4 selling 19,629 for the week ending the 15th of Feb, Media Create says it sold 24,737, it's in the latest articles:

http://gematsu.com/2015/03/media-create-sales-22315-3115

http://www.vgchartz.com/weekly/42050/Japan/

 

It's also out for the weeks before that, like I said adjustments will be made, it happens all the time.

Vg chartz uses the middle numbers between media create and famitsu. Yet another point you are wrong.



Materia-Blade on 05 March 2015
Teeqoz said:
Materia-Blade said:

Japan won't.


It won't but that doesn't matter. The PS4 will end up ahead of the Wii U lifetime anyway. If you're so confident, why won't you bet with me on it?

I don't like such long term bets but what would it be like?



Teeqoz on 05 March 2015
Materia-Blade said:
Teeqoz said:


It won't but that doesn't matter. The PS4 will end up ahead of the Wii U lifetime anyway. If you're so confident, why won't you bet with me on it?

I don't like such long term bets but what would it be like?


It would be like I predict that the PS4 will end up ahead of the Wii U ltd in japan, you predict it won't. Winner gets a month sig and avy control. We won't really have to wait 'til it's discontinued, because e'll know when it's impossible for either console to overtake the other.



Materia-Blade on 05 March 2015
Teeqoz said:
Materia-Blade said:

I don't like such long term bets but what would it be like?


It would be like I predict that the PS4 will end up ahead of the Wii U ltd in japan, you predict it won't. Winner gets a month sig and avy control. We won't really have to wait 'til it's discontinued, because e'll know when it's impossible for either console to overtake the other.

Fine, I'm in.