By using this site, you agree to our Privacy Policy and our Terms of Use. Close

Forums - Sales Discussion - Prediction: PS4 to be down YOY in 2015

Ryng_Tolu said:
JustBeingReal said:
LOL absolutely not going to happen, the level of games coming out this year compared to last is much better, that coupled together with the level of multiplats is going to destroy the sales of last year.
PS4 sold 18.5M overall since launch, with 4.4M being 2013's sales, so it sold 14.1M in 2014.

Considering that PS3 and 360 both had stronger 1st years compared to PS4 and their second years were about on the same level if not lower in quality as their 1st, they still saw bigger than 20-30% sales growth in the 2nd year, there's no way PS4 doesn't see at least a 30% increase compared to last year.
It has about 3X the number of AAA exclusives, there's also the exclusive indies (yes Indies can sell hardware) and of course 3rd party is much better than what came out last year, with Star Wars Battlefront, Batman Arkham Knight, Metal Gear Solid, the Witcher 3, The Division, Rainbow Six Siege, Mortal Kombat X.

2014 really doesn't hold a candle to the quality and volume of games coming in 2015.

PS4 sold like 14.1M in 2014, this year it will at least be at 18.33M, although I think a 50% level of growth is actually far more likely even without a major price drop, so 21.15M is what I think PS4 will sell by the 31st of December 2015.
With a price drop down to $349 or maybe even $299 it easily rises to 25M and if GT7 launches in December I wouldn't be shocked if Sony sells a good 2M more on top of that, so 27M tops.

Considering that Samsung have already started production on 1GB memory chips cost reductions will be a certainty, APU production will ramp up even higher, as will all component costs, which will vastly reduce the price of the console at the production level.
Sony will most definitely drop the price of PS4 as this will result in huge PS+ and software sales across the board.

There's no way PS4 won't sell 18M this year though, it just doesn't make any sense for a sub 14.1M year to happen, not when PS4 did that with minimal AAA exclusive software support and good 3rd party/Indie games in 2014.

We won't see the peak PS4 sales year until probably 2016 or 2017 as the level of games and overall library of content will be much better in the future (we'll have the current library of 2015 and everything built up in later years), PS4 will probably get a huge price cut in those years too.
By the end of 2017 PS4 will likely hit it's sub $200 price point as parts will be ridiculously cheap by then.

IMO it makes the most logical sense that by the end of 2015 PS4 will have sold over 40 million, it has the games to support that and is yet to have a major price cut.

1) You compared PS4 with PS3 and XB360. that is wrong, because it is the last generation.

It's not wrong, wrong is a subjective thing, I don't think it's wrong to compare time periods, at the end of the day they're consoles, they have video games, a changing library, it's a product in the same market, so I'm well within my right to make comparisons, using that data as a base.

For a comparation: the Wii is increase by a fucking 40% the second year, but Wii U only by 10%, DS is rise by 100%, but 3DS by 5%, and PSP is rise by 30%, versus PSV that have sold less than last year...

So could PS4, it's 1st year of exclusives wasn't that great, it has a lot of games, which appeal to a more varied kind of gamer, the games coming are looking a lot better in terms of their quality compared to what came out last year.

PS4 is much more popular than last gen Playstation and Xbox, no reason why it won't see a major increase with better games coming.

I'm not using handhelds as they're a different market to home consoles.

The first year PS4 have sold lika a monster because the hype, that now is ending, so, if it don't will be down this year, it will rise by 10-15 %, or maximum 20%...

LOL PS4 sold because it was the better system, it has the Playstation name, lol there's no evidence that PS4 sold on hype alone, hype doesn't last for over a year, unless there's a reason for it.

It's logical to think that better games will feed the fire of sales for the platform.

 

2) 25-27 M?????

No seriusly, the fuck!?!?!?

Yep, seriously, PS4 sold 14.1 million with like 2 major AAA exclusives, some indies, 3 cross gen releases and 3rd party. This year PS4 has games of exceedingly better quality, much bigger volume.

You'll notice that 25-27M came with a proviso, a price cut down to $299 and GT7, along with all of the games we know about coming to the system, some of that may not happen.

Just off of the back of the games we know about, that are definitely coming it should see a 30% increase in sales, minimum, there's a lot of current gen exclusive and outright PS4 exclusives coming.

A $349 price point is very likely, if not guaranteed, that along with those games will probably see a 50% increase, so 21.15 is likely off of the back of that and of course great games bundles and better games on PS+, plus added features to the OS.


You know that the Wii have sold less than 25,000,000 in 2008, and it have sold 500k-600k in a normal NPD (2M during the holiday), and 40,000-50,000 all week in Japan!? PS4 have 0 chance for sell as the Wii...

Based on nothing, you give no evidence that supports that.

Hell there's even China that I haven't taken into consideration, that market could easily equal millions in hardware sales being added to the bottom line, Sony even showed how asia is on the rise at TGS.

 

It comes down to the level of games, the volume of them, the amount of sales achieved with none of that and of course a higher price point.

PS4 didn't just sell on hype in 2014, it's sold like it has because it's a great device and people have enjoyed the games that have come out so far, the market wants the platform, the sales are higher in baseline weeks than they were before, so it only supports such increases as being likely for the platform.


See bolded response above.