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Forums - Sales Discussion - Sanity Check: PS4 still on its path to 100m+?

 

So what's your number?

<100m 77 25.50%
 
>100m 119 39.40%
 
>120m 40 13.25%
 
>140m 27 8.94%
 
Half-Life 3 comfirmed! 39 12.91%
 
Total:302
vivster on 14 February 2015
thismeintiel said:
vivster said:
thismeintiel said:
Ryng_Tolu said:
100m < PS4 < 120m

Yep, thinking ~115M-120M, myself.

@ OP

Personally, I don't see how people could think the PS4 can't make it to 100M.  Ever since the market grew with the PS1, no market leader has failed to make it to 100M+. The PS4 has also made it to 20M+ without a single PS big hitter.  No GT.  No GOW.  No Uncharted. No (possible) TLOU sequel.  Not to mention all the great new IPs Sony always launches each gen.  We got 2 just around the corner.

And it's done it without a WW price cut.  We still have a cut to $349 this year.  It could possibly be to $299, but if not, then it will be at $299 next year.  Then we have the PS4 Slim, which will come with either the $299 price cut or a $199/$249 one.  Speaking of a $199 price, sales should explode at that point, as long as it doesn't happen WAY late in the gen.  And considering Sony went with off the shelves parts, as well as a memory type that will still be falling in price, I wouldn't be too surprised if they are able to get it down to $99-$129 a year or so before they take it off of shelves.

The basic reasoning behind it is the assumption of a greatly changed electronic entertainment industry since the start of last gen. This includes:

- Shorter hardware cycles (see smartphones, televisions)

The only impact smartphones have had on the industry is that it has taken away much of the casual market for handheld devices.  This hasn't just automatically made people want to replace everything they own after having it a year or two.  Otherwise, everyone who wanted to jump onto this gen would have done it by now.

 



Just gonna answer the first because it pretty much defeats the rest.

So what makes you think that the big part of the people who wanted to get a PS4 not already jumped? We have literally no precedence over the behavior of the current consumer and their buying behavior towards fast console cycles. And you can't deny that the way we consume media has changed profoundly in the last 8 years.

That's the problem here. The strong start of the PS4 supports both our arguments equally and will not be resolved until the end of this or the next year. Meaning currently neither of us can produce evidence of the other theory being wrong.

I'm not saying my prediction is foolproof. It's just a gut feeling produced by assumptions made by observations of other markets which may or may not be applicable to the console market. There are real factors that support it right now but if these factors are mere coincidences or a sign of what is yet to come remains to be seen.



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fatslob-:O on 14 February 2015
Materia-Blade said:

I meant bankrupt for the gaming divisions.

Except both Microsoft and Sony reported a profit in their gaming divisions according to their previous quarter report ... 

The HD twin console manufacturers are the least likely to be threatened when it comes to bankruptcy ... 



vivster on 14 February 2015
Dr.Henry_Killinger said:
vivster said:

Not trying to jump the gun because of sub par January sales. Just a quick check what's the current average estimate here.

I'm still sticking with my sub 100m prediction that I had since launch, with only VR having the potential to bring back enough casuals to beat it. I know I'm in the minority with this.

I'm considering VR a non factor till we get price points and or public demos. Tech's expensise and doesn't look casual friendly right now. Not to mention VR isn't exactly new and has never pentrated anything but the hardcore market technical limitations nonwithstanding.

Me too. VR is currently Schrödinger's Casual Bait. It's both potentially successful and a non-starter at the same time. Until we see the price and device integration to collaps the function. I have absolutely no clue how it will be received by the public when it eventually releases on a proper platform.



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POE on 14 February 2015

Nope.



vivster on 14 February 2015
RolStoppable said:
I don't see why not at this point in time. We have seen no real recovery from the Xbox One, so if the PS4 continues to gobble up former Microsoft market share, 100m isn't that high of a goal when last gen the PS3 and 360 moved about 180m units combined (I know they aren't quite there yet, but the systems are still selling). 100m is even possible with a probable decline of PS+Xbox gen over gen.

But there are a number of factors (length of gen, new IPs failing to drive hardware sales, the third party industry going bonkers with DLC and microtransactions to the point that the audience makes a stand for a change) that could make it possible for the PS4 to fail reaching the 100m mark, so I won't call you delusional.

I'll cross you off my "IToldYouSo!" list then.



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thismeintiel on 14 February 2015
Mummelmann said:
Game Boy Color was technically not the same as the original Game Boy, so while the two combined have sold more than the Advance; this is not the case when they're separated.

That's some serious stretching going on there.  Which also refutes your argument, since I'm sure the GBC sold less than the OG Gameboy.  And what about the GB Micro?



 

Shiken on 14 February 2015
vivster said:
Shiken said:
Yes I do believe it will. The big guns have not even been unholstered yet.

I know the Big Guns haven't been shown yet but what's after that? Will the Gen even be long enough to get that high?


This gen will be longer than people think.  Not as long as the PS360 gen, but at least as long as the PS2 era.  Will it match PS2 sales?  Probably not because the PS2 came to be in a unique time.  That said, 100mil is a very reachable figure.



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CrankyFlameBunny on 14 February 2015

Definitely won't hit 100m, but it will get in the high 70m



thismeintiel on 14 February 2015
vivster said:
thismeintiel said:
vivster said:

The basic reasoning behind it is the assumption of a greatly changed electronic entertainment industry since the start of last gen. This includes:

- Shorter hardware cycles (see smartphones, televisions)

The only impact smartphones have had on the industry is that it has taken away much of the casual market for handheld devices.  This hasn't just automatically made people want to replace everything they own after having it a year or two.  Otherwise, everyone who wanted to jump onto this gen would have done it by now.

 



Just gonna answer the first because it pretty much defeats the rest.

So what makes you think that the big part of the people who wanted to get a PS4 not already jumped? We have literally no precedence over the behavior of the current consumer and their buying behavior towards fast console cycles. And you can't deny that the way we consume media has changed profoundly in the last 8 years.

Lol, this is where I stopped reading.  You honestly think a big part (I'm going to take that to mean a little less than half), have already jumped in?  It's still $399 for goodness sakes.  You honestly don't think the large majority haven't jumped in, yet?  This has happened EVERY gen.  People wait for big exclusives to jump in.  Or a certain price to jump in.  Nothing has changed.

And yes, I CAN deny that how we consume has changed.  The only real difference is how we get our media.  Not when we get it or replace it.  Some people like to point to smartphones, probably cause that's all they have to back them up, to illustrate this.  But, smartphones are a different beast.  Most importantly, people get BIG discounts on devices from their service providers.  They can get an iPhone or nice Android for $99-$199, maybe less if through upgrade programs, instead of the $499-$599 they would normally spend if they just bought it.  You think all of those people would buy the new iPhones/Droids if they had to pay full price EVERY SINGLE YEAR.  Fuck no they wouldn't.

For just about EVERYTHING ELSE, people hang on to their belongings unless it breaks, they get a new one as a gift, or the new one has a really nice feature (for TV and DVD/Bluray players, something like 3D or 4K.)  Sure, there are people who are well off who can afford to purchase these things almost every year, but for the average consumer they aren't just going out there and start buying new things every year just because their service provider is helping them get a new phone every year, which I'm sure they aren't always taking advantage of, either.



 

tak13 on 14 February 2015

If I say under 90m,I will feel that I'm downplaying it!

I think the minimum is 95m(Well,it could do 90m),i think 100m is a given with the legs that ps4 at has...(You would expect me by using the legs fact to predict 120m or more...I think that roof for a home console can't be beyond 100m anymore...We will see...It's quite early to say,my opinion might change for good or even for bad...

And people don't let the fast selling and the outpacing of the predecessor to fool you,this can change at anytime,like this january...