thismeintiel said:
vivster said:
thismeintiel said:
Ryng_Tolu said:
100m < PS4 < 120m |
Yep, thinking ~115M-120M, myself.
@ OP
Personally, I don't see how people could think the PS4 can't make it to 100M. Ever since the market grew with the PS1, no market leader has failed to make it to 100M+. The PS4 has also made it to 20M+ without a single PS big hitter. No GT. No GOW. No Uncharted. No (possible) TLOU sequel. Not to mention all the great new IPs Sony always launches each gen. We got 2 just around the corner.
And it's done it without a WW price cut. We still have a cut to $349 this year. It could possibly be to $299, but if not, then it will be at $299 next year. Then we have the PS4 Slim, which will come with either the $299 price cut or a $199/$249 one. Speaking of a $199 price, sales should explode at that point, as long as it doesn't happen WAY late in the gen. And considering Sony went with off the shelves parts, as well as a memory type that will still be falling in price, I wouldn't be too surprised if they are able to get it down to $99-$129 a year or so before they take it off of shelves.
|
The basic reasoning behind it is the assumption of a greatly changed electronic entertainment industry since the start of last gen. This includes:
- Shorter hardware cycles (see smartphones, televisions)
The only impact smartphones have had on the industry is that it has taken away much of the casual market for handheld devices. This hasn't just automatically made people want to replace everything they own after having it a year or two. Otherwise, everyone who wanted to jump onto this gen would have done it by now.
|
|
Just gonna answer the first because it pretty much defeats the rest.
So what makes you think that the big part of the people who wanted to get a PS4 not already jumped? We have literally no precedence over the behavior of the current consumer and their buying behavior towards fast console cycles. And you can't deny that the way we consume media has changed profoundly in the last 8 years.
That's the problem here. The strong start of the PS4 supports both our arguments equally and will not be resolved until the end of this or the next year. Meaning currently neither of us can produce evidence of the other theory being wrong.
I'm not saying my prediction is foolproof. It's just a gut feeling produced by assumptions made by observations of other markets which may or may not be applicable to the console market. There are real factors that support it right now but if these factors are mere coincidences or a sign of what is yet to come remains to be seen.
