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Forums - Sales Discussion - January 2015 NPD Thread! Hardware estimates up!

BraLoD said:
gooch_destroyer said:


And you spelt my name wrong. (Again) one more and you are out!


Damn why do I keep getting it wrong? I think Gooch and write Googh, you should change your name to Googh
Maybe you are... van Gogh? :-o

Nah. I like having ears. lol



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binary solo said:
Burek said:

Well, my original comment was just a speculation, trying to give one possible angle on the software discrepancy. I don't claim it to be a fact.

What leads me to speculate that way is a report this Christmas that XOne was purchased more as a gift, while PS4 was bought more as a personal purchase. More XOne's as gifts leads me to believe more XOne users (compared to PS4) are children (persons under 18), who don't have credit cards usually required to make a digital purchase. Thus skewing digital sales more to the PS4 side. 

Just a theory.

It's a reasonable theory. But I guess the point is moot now that our eyes have been opened to the fact that MS was not claiming to be number 1 in software, only that they were number 1 in tie ratio. Which as number 1's go is a bit of a number 2, really.

Not surprised.Classic MS spin.Just like the useless user data they post about hours played,content dowloaded and number of players.Just junk info for PR.



theprof00 said:
Xenoverse3 said:
Can anyone give me a quick rundown of what is over and under tracked?

If my assumption is correct, and our 2015 totals reflect the first three weeks,

then

ps4: 205k up until the 24th
xb1: 198k up until the 24th

averaging 50k per week so far, this would put ps4 and xb1 at 255 and 248k respectively.

I know vgc says "usa" but if it's actually north america, then

USA
ps4: 193 + 58 from mexico and canada
xb1: 158 + 90 from mexico and canada

in this scenario, ps4 is likely overtracked by 10-20, and xb1 is likely overtracked by 60-70

However, if "usa" means strictly USA

then ps4 overtracked by 50k in USA
and xb1 overtracked by 100k in USA

What? VGChartz has XBOne at 153k and PS4 at 157k in the US.



Aura7541 said:

Both are bad, but one console's situation came out unexpectedly. Guess which one? Right, the XB1. PS4's drop from last January was expected since its price is still the same since launch. Also, it's not only a 10% increase for the XB1, it's actually less than 10%.

The PS4 only had one game bundled with it last month. It was until the beginning of this month (or end of last month) where it got TLOU + 1 year of PS+ included, which later became TLOU + Shadow of Mordor. The XB1 also had the psychological advantage with the price tag being $349 as opposed to the PS4's price tag remaining exactly the same.

For the next months, the PS4 is sure to do better than the XB1. This month, it will have The Order: 1886. Next month, it will have MLB 15: The Show, Toukiden Kiwami, and Bloodborne. Sony also has exclusive marketing for Battlefield Hardline and Batman: Arkham Knight. Meanwhile, the XB1 doesn't have much going for it, so there is no doubt that it is in a worse situation than the PS4.

at least i can totally agree on this.

a yoy drop for the ps4 was expected from me. (and most others)
it's just the amount, that supised me. 

a yoy increase for the xb1 was expected, too
just the amount suprised 



binary solo said:
ethomaz said:
From GAF for the record.

January 2003:

PS2- 451k
Xbox-163k
Cube- 81k

Shite! Xb one down compared to Xbox. That's not very good. Not much of a "record" when you don't beat your unimpressively selling grandad.

PS4 way down on PS2. Well I've been saying all along that PS4 has no chance of being PS2-like in sales, so no biggie really. How's the PS3 2nd January though?

From GAF.



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Shadow1980 said:
So, it appears the XBO is up only 7% from last January. Not too great considering it's $150 cheaper than it was last January. But the PS4 is down almost 30%. While this isn't unprecedented — the Wii was down big time in its second January compared to its first — and it certainly isn't bad numbers-wise considering it's still at $400, but I think if it's still down YoY through the rest of the quarter, Sony may institute a price cut by this summer. The PS2's first price cut was in May 2002, while the PS1 & PS3 already had their first price cuts in their first year. Even with solid games, sales aren't going to grow until they cut the price.


Ohh yahh they will, If PS4 get a few destiny like bundles and bumps they will add up to sales growth.  



BraLoD said:
gooch_destroyer said:

Nah. I like having ears. lol

Isn't one good enough?


mah ears!



So the xbox is 150$ cheaper and it only went up 7% YoY. With no big game for a long time that's not good



I doubt anyone is happy with their numbers, but people at MS should be the one to worry more



Shadow1980 said:
So, it appears the XBO is up only 7% from last January. Not too great considering it's $150 cheaper than it was last January. But the PS4 is down almost 30%. While this isn't unprecedented — the Wii was down big time in its second January compared to its first — and it certainly isn't bad numbers-wise considering it's still at $400, but I think if it's still down YoY through the rest of the quarter, Sony may institute a price cut by this summer. The PS2's first price cut was in May 2002, while the PS1 & PS3 already had their first price cuts in their first year. Even with solid games, sales aren't going to grow until they cut the price.

I think this is essentially correct. Others may have misinterpreted your comments to mean that 'sales aren't going to grow (past January levels) until they cut the price', whereas I read the situation as :

These sales of PS4 at $399 are showing the weakening of the market for a $400 console. There are a finite number of people willing to blow nearly half a grand on a game console these days, particularly when more casual owners of previous gen consoles are likely to have notebooks, smartphones, tablets, and other consoles already capable of doing an acceptable job of gaming platform for them. So getting those users on board will take a new price point altogether. There is a huge psychological barrier at $299 that opens the door up to a dramatically larger market. I think it's easily fair to say that PS4 has already been the most successful $400 console in history to this point, but there comes a time where it's just unthinkable not to open the door to the masses. $400 is basically a luxury tier for many families, and while $299 isn't hugely cheaper, the price becomes infinitely more acceptable due to conditioning over the years where a console feels like it SHOULD be priced. Now obviously even at $399, sales will go up and down based on time of year, exclusives, multiplats, yadda/infinity, but we're well past the point where cutting the POE to a mass-market level will truly bring a stampede of new buyers.

People looking back on older consoles that were higher than $300 didn't do all that well at those prices for very long, it really took a knock into the sub-$300 range to get into the 75m+ LTD range in a meaningful way.

It brings an interesting thought to the table though, if PS4 gets cut straight to $299 (a historic price for PS consoles by the way), skipping the $329/$349, where does that leave X1? $249? I don't think they would be willing to go that far tbh. And at price parity (or even $50 cheaper), it seems that X1 is doomed to 2nd place ad infinitum.

So the real question of 2015 will be answered with Sony's PS4 pricing plans. If they go to $299, they will bust all kinds of sales records. If they choose $349, expect moderate success, but nothing mind blowing. And then : when? E3 would be incredibly wise to start with, but maybe they hold till fall. At some point they have to get proactive with the situation. If everyone sits on their hands, the entire market stands to lose. $349, $399, etc are simply too expensive for a big generation to be built on. Breaking even or even taking a small loss to hit $299 will bring a TON of software/peripheral sales to them over the years, and imho it should have actually been started in December.