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Forums - Sales Discussion - January 2015 NPD Thread! Hardware estimates up!

ethomaz on 12 February 2015

youthgamer1 said:

both over. 
don't listen to etho

http://www.vgchartz.com/yearly/2015/USA/

Xbone already sold more on VGC with 3 weeks than NPD with 4 weeks.

PS4 well needs more ~30k to reach NPD with 4 weeks... if it have any drop from previous week than I can say VGC can be on spot.



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ethomaz on 12 February 2015
theprof00 said:
Xenoverse3 said:
Can anyone give me a quick rundown of what is over and under tracked?

If my assumption is correct, and our 2015 totals reflect the first three weeks,

then

ps4: 205k up until the 24th
xb1: 198k up until the 24th

averaging 50k per week so far, this would put ps4 and xb1 at 255 and 248k respectively.

I know vgc says "usa" but if it's actually north america, then

USA
ps4: 193 + 58 from mexico and canada
xb1: 158 + 90 from mexico and canada

in this scenario, ps4 is likely overtracked by 10-20, and xb1 is likely overtracked by 60-70

However, if "usa" means strictly USA

then ps4 overtracked by 50k in USA
and xb1 overtracked by 100k in USA

Your numbers are wrong because you used the last week of December NPD.

PS4: 157,508
Xbone: 152,842

With 3 weeks of Janiuary.



youthgamer1 on 12 February 2015
Aura7541 said:
youthgamer1 said:

xb1 dec 2013 - jan 2014 drop = 84,5%
xb1 dec 2014 - jan 2015 drop = 88%

ps4 dec 2013- jan 2014 drop = 68,5%
ps4 dec 2014 - jan 2015 drop = 82%

that ps4 2014 number is the launch hype and supply issue 

And....? I don't see what you're doing other than throwing out a bunch of numbers and proving my point. The X1's situation is worse. Less than a 10% increase between January 2014 and Jan. 2015 is bad considering it costs $150 less compared to last Jan. along with two free games.

i just don't agree with the point of the xb's situation being worse.
both are bad. im not sure right now, wich one is worse

 

only 10% increase with the new 150 bucks cheaper pricepoint is ofc bad
but the 30% ps4 decrase is bad, too. even with that "understandable" situation

and if u throw in that 2 free games for the xb1, u have to throw the 1 or 2 free games for the ps4, too
the xb1 went from december to janary down 82% at both months being 500$. and now 88% at both months being 350$
cleary no good sign

but wee need some more monts of 2015 date, to make some educated guess, if the consoles doing good or bad and wich one doing worse (comparde to its own previous year performace)



zorg1000 on 12 February 2015
binary solo said:
youthgamer1 said:


xb1 set a new sales record in november 2014, december 2014 and january 2015 npd 
ps4 set only a new sales recod in december 2014 npd

 

both yoy comparison second year sales ofc

When you beat yourself it's only a personal best. When you beat your predecessor (which it did not) and your direct competition's best (which is did not) then it's a record.

PS4 starting the year down 80K YoY means the first half of the year is likely to be generally down and PS4 will be heavily relying on a price cut and games like UC 4 to end 2015 up on 2014. But I think also that if PS4 is significantly down YoY for a few months running Sony might bring the price cut forward rather than wait for the end of the year.

I get the feeling PSV being 39% of 3DS is more likely to be bad news for 3DS than good news for PSV.


I think PS4 will get a price drop sometime between June-Sept, not sure if to $299 or $349.

Also ya 3DS sales were probably pretty bad this month, I believe it did 96k last January and it's been declining along with New 3DS announcement in the middle of the month. I think around 70k is possible



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

ethomaz on 12 February 2015

From GAF for the record.

January 2003:

PS2- 451k
Xbox-163k
Cube- 81k



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binary solo on 12 February 2015

Did anyone notice? PS4=Xb one+360, based on the approximations in the OP.



“The fundamental cause of the trouble is that in the modern world the stupid are cocksure while the intelligent are full of doubt.” - Bertrand Russell

"When the power of love overcomes the love of power, the world will know peace."

Jimi Hendrix

 

youthgamer1 on 12 February 2015
ethomaz said:

youthgamer1 said:

both over. 
don't listen to etho

http://www.vgchartz.com/yearly/2015/USA/

Xbone already sold more on VGC with 3 weeks than NPD with 4 weeks.

PS4 well needs more ~30k to reach NPD with 4 weeks... if it have any drop from previous week than I can say VGC can be on spot.


the next week will be the dying light week.
why should the ps4 be down 37% wow according to chartz in that week?

 

but at least the xb1 is way more overtracked this january



Dr.Henry_Killinger on 12 February 2015
youthgamer1 said:
Dr.Henry_Killinger said:

Xbox One's aren't negative PS4s. It's not a success for MS, its a failure for Sony. Not to mention if they both sold worse Januaries, its bad for the entire industry.

The only thing that could be construed as an "objective" success is the top software spot for MS.

yes, but we already know, that the xb1 at least sold more better this january compared to last year
just the value is down, because of the new pricepoint 

By ~8k units for a avg sku price drop of $150.

I reiterate italics.



In this day and age, with the Internet, ignorance is a choice! And they're still choosing Ignorance! - Dr. Filthy Frank

Aura7541 on 12 February 2015
youthgamer1 said:

i just don't agree with the point of the xb's situation being worse.
both are bad. im not sure right now, wich one is worse

only 10% increase with the new 150 bucks cheaper pricepoint is ofc bad
but the 30% ps4 decrase is bad, too. even with that "understandable" situation

and if u throw in that 2 free games for the xb1, u have to throw the 1 or 2 free games for the ps4, too
the xb1 went from december to janary down 82% at both months being 500$. and now 88% at both months being 350$
cleary no good sign

but wee need some more monts of 2015 date, to make some educated guess, if the consoles doing good or bad and wich one doing worse (comparde to its own previous year performace)

Both are bad, but one console's situation came out unexpectedly. Guess which one? Right, the XB1. PS4's drop from last January was expected since its price is still the same since launch. Also, it's not only a 10% increase for the XB1, it's actually less than 10%.

The PS4 only had one game bundled with it last month. It was until the beginning of this month (or end of last month) where it got TLOU + 1 year of PS+ included, which later became TLOU + Shadow of Mordor. The XB1 also had the psychological advantage with the price tag being $349 as opposed to the PS4's price tag remaining exactly the same.

For the next months, the PS4 is sure to do better than the XB1. This month, it will have The Order: 1886. Next month, it will have MLB 15: The Show, Toukiden Kiwami, and Bloodborne. Sony also has exclusive marketing for Battlefield Hardline and Batman: Arkham Knight. Meanwhile, the XB1 doesn't have much going for it, so there is no doubt that it is in a worse situation than the PS4.



binary solo on 12 February 2015
ethomaz said:
From GAF for the record.

January 2003:

PS2- 451k
Xbox-163k
Cube- 81k

Shite! Xb one down compared to Xbox. That's not very good. Not much of a "record" when you don't beat your unimpressively selling grandad.

PS4 way down on PS2. Well I've been saying all along that PS4 has no chance of being PS2-like in sales, so no biggie really. How's the PS3 2nd January though?



“The fundamental cause of the trouble is that in the modern world the stupid are cocksure while the intelligent are full of doubt.” - Bertrand Russell

"When the power of love overcomes the love of power, the world will know peace."

Jimi Hendrix