| Landguy said: Seeing as how I made that comment, I will reply to your thoughts by the numbers I inserted: 1. Yes, it is a sales analysis site. Thats' the very reason that I personally come here. But, I know going in that the numbers provided by the Chartz are speculation. Are there some well thought out ideas/formulas to make those predictions/speculations? Sure, but it has been proven out that they are indeed very innacurate. Even NPD isn't 100% accurate. So, the threads related to NPD are conversations based on estimates. If you consider that these forums go 24/7/365, and financials(most accurate or true numbers when they are even given) usually only come out quarterly. So, almost all of the sales related threads are speculation. 2. Sure, thats the whole point of the forums related to sales, to discuss the numbers and provide speculation as to how they occurred. Or to grab a small sentence or tweet from someone in the industry and extrapulate(parsed words) as to its hidden meaning. 3. So, for the most part, we are not just pulling nummbers out of a hat - We agree on that. But, trying to be overly restrictive on the definition what is correct or incorrect when we seldom have actual sales numbers is just what it is. The forums themselves are not indicative of the site as a whole, but of just what they are. Almost evey website forum is the same. There are some people with true insight, some with crazy ideas, and most that are here just for the ride. |
Hi Landguy and thanks for your response.
Some issues I wanted to address before I begin.
a) VGC has, at times, been more accurate than NPD itself. Yes. NPD has actually changed previous month numbers to reflect numbers more in line with our own data.
b) VGC is consistently more accurate than Wedbush Morgan, which is run by Pachter, a man who probably makes six figures to do those unreliable numbers.
From what I gather in your post, you agree that we use the data we have to try and paint a picture of the market, and that some people use the paintbrush sometimes much more liberally than others....and even more still paint something completely different.
I also don't want to come off as if to say, "people here are dumb", or profess the unprofessionalism on the site. I like the site the way it is.
However, while we do use an extrapolated image of the market, and we take each quote and try to fit it into a grander scheme, one of the main points of the forum is discussion. We discuss and decide which data is reliable and which isn't. If we were to include all data, we would have so much nonsense and dead ends that predictions would be impossible. Unfortunately, we are in a market where investor relations, personal tweets, straight up lies, and marketing are interwoven with actual info. That, agreed, makes the job difficult. Conversely, if wewere too strict about what we included, we wouldn't have enough data for anything. Sometimes a variable is missing and you need to use a proxy answer in order to connect the dots. If the picture then makes sense, then that missing data is equal to the answer.
This involves a lot of massaging of the information we have, and a lot of assumptions, and discussion, in order to determine what the market is showing us. The problem in this thread, is that there is discussion here by many members who both disagree with the analysis, as well as discredit the source of said analysis. Try and take this discussion as information. Perhaps it isn't credible, perhaps the idea is stupid in the first place. Perhaps not. Explore all the options, but please keep in mind that what you are asking for: "extrapolation and speculation", is what has been given to you by these members. Speculate the quote. Speculate the validity. Speculate the discussion. It's an endless process.
Some people here did actually look at the proposition and analyze it. In my opinion, I would disagree with it as well, but mainly because Disney and SPE are run so differently that such an acquisition would be rather inflexible. Disney is a collaborative company that focuses on efficiency and merchandising. (supply and demand, and product tie-ins). SPE is a company that focuses on blockbusters, international releases and large quantity dvd sales (oversupply and brand appeal). Nintendo is instead a much more similar company because they release in small quantities and focus on treating their games as merchandise. This is not even getting into much more complex reasons and situations. This is an "at-best'" case-study'. And for example, once I decide that, my next step is to question the source. The source is an unnamed person with an idea. I rationalize and look at the data he's looking at, and I conclude that 'at best' it's because they have an "in", and they can "afford it". Unfortunately, those two pieces of evidence are really REALLY insubstantial.
Rather, my guess would be that Disney is testing out what they can do with Spiderman. If he looks profitable, then they will seek to acquire the rights back from SPE, which would probably run about 400m-700m by itself. Maybe even more.
Sometimes, members get this far and then move up another step. People ask themselves, "Since the premise is wrong, and the source is wrong, why was it posted". They then speculate and that's when you get these kinds of disagreements.
Again, just try to take the feedback you're provided. I personally don't think you had any ill-will in posting it., I think you just saw a headline that could grab attention and ran with it. And I don't blame you for that because I do the same thing sometimes.
I know it's a long read, but please take my advice. If you post stuff like this, you will meet with backlash.
