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Forums - Sales Discussion - 2K Games: 29 million PS4 and Xbox One Sold Thru EOY

Kerotan on 04 February 2015

The claims of XboxOne undertracked have lost credibility. It is probably overtracked but not by much. At least we have a decent idea of how big the gap is.



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AlexJones on 04 February 2015
Kerotan said:
The claims of XboxOne undertracked have lost credibility. It is probably overtracked but not by much. At least we have a decent idea of how big the gap is.

Not by much? The PS4 has 1.5m units sitting on shelves. What does that say about the Xbone?

Let's put this into perspective. According to insiders, SONY never channel stuffed in FY 2014. We can safetly assume that SONY both shipped and sold 4.2m units at the end of FY 2013, since PS4s were all out of stock. So in FY 2014, SONY managed to overship 1.5m.

The Xbone already had 1m units overshipped by the end of FY 2013. Considering that they overshipped again this year, it's pretty much a guarantee that Xbone overshipped by >1.5m this year (Closer to 2.5m). The neogaf insiders who said that MS MASSIVELY overshipped this year only gives credence to my assessment.

This means Xbone has >2.5m units sitting in store shelves or warehouses.



ithis on 04 February 2015
AlexJones said:

Not by much? The PS4 has 1.5m units sitting on shelves. What does that say about the Xbone?

Let's put this into perspective. According to insiders, SONY never channel stuffed in FY 2014. We can safetly assume that SONY both shipped and sold 4.2m units at the end of FY 2013, since PS4s were all out of stock. So in FY 2014, SONY managed to overship 1.5m.

The Xbone already had 1m units overshipped by the end of FY 2013. Considering that they overshipped again this year, it's pretty much a guarantee that Xbone overshipped by >1.5m this year (Closer to 2.5m). The neogaf insiders who said that MS MASSIVELY overshipped this year only gives credence to my assessment.

This means Xbone has >2.5m units sitting in store shelves or warehouses.

Wasn't there an understanding of the fact that noone can stuff channels unless someone in the channels buys the stuff?

Why would retailers buy so many Xbones?



Kerotan on 04 February 2015
AlexJones said:
Kerotan said:
The claims of XboxOne undertracked have lost credibility. It is probably overtracked but not by much. At least we have a decent idea of how big the gap is.

Not by much? The PS4 has 1.5m units sitting on shelves. What does that say about the Xbone?

Let's put this into perspective. According to insiders, SONY never channel stuffed in FY 2014. We can safetly assume that SONY both shipped and sold 4.2m units at the end of FY 2013, since PS4s were all out of stock. So in FY 2014, SONY managed to overship 1.5m.

The Xbone already had 1m units overshipped by the end of FY 2013. Considering that they overshipped again this year, it's pretty much a guarantee that Xbone overshipped by >1.5m this year (Closer to 2.5m). The neogaf insiders who said that MS MASSIVELY overshipped this year only gives credence to my assessment.

This means Xbone has >2.5m units sitting in store shelves or warehouses.


I fully understand that.  not saying it's wrong. 



AlexJones on 04 February 2015
ithis said:
AlexJones said:

Not by much? The PS4 has 1.5m units sitting on shelves. What does that say about the Xbone?

Let's put this into perspective. According to insiders, SONY never channel stuffed in FY 2014. We can safetly assume that SONY both shipped and sold 4.2m units at the end of FY 2013, since PS4s were all out of stock. So in FY 2014, SONY managed to overship 1.5m.

The Xbone already had 1m units overshipped by the end of FY 2013. Considering that they overshipped again this year, it's pretty much a guarantee that Xbone overshipped by >1.5m this year (Closer to 2.5m). The neogaf insiders who said that MS MASSIVELY overshipped this year only gives credence to my assessment.

This means Xbone has >2.5m units sitting in store shelves or warehouses.

Wasn't there an understanding of the fact that noone can stuff channels unless someone in the channels buys the stuff?

Why would retailers buy so many Xbones?

Becuase they (wrongly) assumed that the Xbone would do well.



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walsufnir on 04 February 2015
AlexJones said:
Ka-pi96 said:
AlexJones said:

Please read the article before replying, people.
There is no way in hell Xbone is past 10m sold-through. Xbone is at 9m sold-through optimistically. Even Microsoft said that they would only reach 10m shipped "soon", meaning that they would hit that number after the holidays. Estimate around 1m unsold Xbones and you'll get 9m. Realistically, there's probably around 2m Xbones unsold, so the sold-through figure is more like 7-8m.

That 29m figure is an estimate from people like Pachter.

So you think you're personal ideas are more accurate than companies that get paid to come up with these figures?

No. I think that my expert prediction skills are right once again. With PS4 having 1.5m units on shelves (Confirmed by SONY financials for Q3 2014), my prediction that there are 2m Xbones on shelves is correct.


Expert prediction skills? Which exactly? 



alexajones on 04 February 2015

this is an analyst estimate.
so not more or less creditable than vgc numbers

stop shouting over- or undertracked estimates on this site based on estimates from another source



AlexJones on 04 February 2015
walsufnir said:
AlexJones said:

No. I think that my expert prediction skills are right once again. With PS4 having 1.5m units on shelves (Confirmed by SONY financials for Q3 2014), my prediction that there are 2m Xbones on shelves is correct.


Expert prediction skills? Which exactly? 

Considering the fact that I was the only one in here who correctly predicted that the Xbone has 2m (Optimist guess) - 3m (Realistic guess) unsold stock when everyone else was predicting only 1m overshipped, I think I have better prediction skills than everyone here.



Seece on 04 February 2015
AlexJones said:
walsufnir said:


Expert prediction skills? Which exactly? 

Considering the fact that I was the only one in here who correctly predicted that the Xbone has 2m (Optimist guess) - 3m (Realistic guess) unsold stock when everyone else was predicting only 1m overshipped, I think I have better prediction skills than everyone here.


No. Also those numbers are basless, this just shows you didn't predict correctly at all.



 

AlexJones on 04 February 2015
Seece said:
AlexJones said:

Considering the fact that I was the only one in here who correctly predicted that the Xbone has 2m (Optimist guess) - 3m (Realistic guess) unsold stock when everyone else was predicting only 1m overshipped, I think I have better prediction skills than everyone here.


No. Also those numbers are basless, this just shows you didn't predict correctly at all.

They are not baseless. They are logical. Put aside your Xbox bias and think about it. It's not hard.

MS started 2014 with 1m unsold. If you say that they still only have 1m as unsold stock, you're saying that MS sold exactly 1-1 when all insiders are saying that MS set a world record for overshipping.

MS overshipped by far more than 1.5m last year.

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