Great deal from Amazon! TLoU:R and SoM are both incredible games.

The Order 16 places ahead of Evolve on X1. The latter comes out in two days, the former in 12.

So far Amazon has been less reliable on software compared to hardware. So don't be surprised if Evolve actually does better on Xb one in the US. Though there is a chance it won't make NPDs top 10 for Feb so we may not know, outside of VGC.

As I mentioned before, Evolve X1 is ahead of PS4 version at Gamestop, but only "barely" (according to the employee). Both are doing "poor" numbers though.

I think the reason why the PS4 SKU is ahead is simply because there were more X1 pre-orders in the past, so that doesn't even mean that the Ps4 version is ahead at amazon. It's just a matter of temporal perspective. Kinda how Majora's mask being so high doesn't mean it has higher pre-orders than games below it, simply because it only started being sold in January.
For example, at Amazon UK the ps4 version is ahead, but the X1 version has been in the top 100 for 29 days while the PS4 version has been in it for 23 days. X1 owners were a bit earlier jumping into the pre-orders I suppose.
I think the game will benefit post-launch from people streaming it (these games are always good for that stuff) which will help the numbers but overall I don't see it doing too well on any of the two platforms. Though it won't bomb completely either.

Good point. Is it being bundled with the X1 at all? Also, has anyone cross-referenced the current sales projections against previous X1 preorders?

things are bright for ps4 on amazon

SOFTWARE TOP TEN:

1) 4# Zelda M.M 3D
2) 7# GTA V PS4
3) 9# GTA V XBO
4) 13# Xeno 3D
5) 16# Monster Hunter 4G
6) 18# Evolve PS4
7) 19# The Order 86
8) 20# GTA V XB360
9) 22# COD AW PS4
10) 24# SSBU

PS4: 4
3DS: 3
XBO: 1
XB360: 1
Wii U: 1

Nintendo: 4
Sony: 4
MS: 2

very true.

By way of rough comparison:

In the month prior to release (Feb 2014) Titan fall Xb one version was #7 on the best seller list for that month. Evolve wasn't in the top 100 for January

For the week prior to launch (3 March week 2014) Titanfall Xb one was #2 on the weekly chart. Evolve PS4 version looks like it will come in between #50 and 55 for 2 Feb week, and that is the top sku for the week. Xb one version should come in between 55 and 60.

On the week of release Titanfall was #7 on the weekly chart. This probably follows a typical pattern for a highly anticipated game. Evolve is obviously looking at being much higher on release week than the week prior. Though it may all depend on what happens the day after it releases. If all the buyewrs are pre-launch and sales dry up substantially post launch it could potentially drop back to the 50s when the whole week is toted up.

3 weeks from launch VGC had Titanfall pre-orders at 319K. Evolove Xb one pre-orders (top pre-order sku on VGC) 3 weeks from launch are 83K

VGC put Titanfall XB one at 580K for its launch week. 83K pre-orders~1/4 of 319K. Should we expect the top Evolve sku (whether PS4 or Xb one) to sell approx 150K on opening week? Assuming Xb one and PS4 version will be roughly similar in sales should we expect release week console sales to be <300K, >250K?

If Evolve launches with 300K sales across PS4bone in the USA is that a flop? Is it a validation or repudiation of the DLC approach they've taken to this game, or is it more a reflection of what people think of the core concept and gameplay mechanics of the game?

Personally given the hype that was around Evolve back at the various 2014 conventions, winning most anticipated/innovative/what have you "awards" and at least leading up to the closed Alpha, 300K launch week sales on consoles represents the wheels falling off this game a tad. If it can't outsell Xb one's Titanfall on two consoles with far higher user bases than what Titanfall had to work with, that has got to be a pretty bad thing.

OTOH, if there are 300K people willing to regularly fork over additional cash for DLC from day 1, is a 300K launch in the USA (and probably 500K(?) globally) enough to ensure eventual profitability. Given each match only requires 5 people, and because the combat is asynchronous you don't have to be so tight with match-making, it is possible for Evolve to feel more active (i.e. easier to get into a game) with a lower number of people online at any given time coimpared to most FPSs? Because of the DLC thing Evolve may be able to become profitable with only 1 million in sales across the consoles. If 2K use this as proof of concept that profitability can be achieved with a relatively low install base (for a AAA online multiplayer game), then what does this mean for the future of online multiplayer games?

Of course The Order is not faring much better on Amazon compared to Titanfall. But on VGC pre-orders at the 4 week to launch mark it is at about 2/3 of Titanfall. So could we expect FW sales of The Order to come in at about 375K in the USA, and ~600K globally? Or is that overly ambitious?