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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Prediction: Wii U+3DS HW Sales 2015>2014

 

Do you agree?

NO! 63 26.25%
 
Yes! 174 72.50%
 
Total:237

To anyone citing the "casual gamer" as a deux ex machina to get the Wii U into decent level of sales; these people are already gaming, on their iPad, smartphones, social games and browser games and the possibilities are only growing in all these market segments; these consumers have no mind towards home consoles regardless of price, software or advertisement when they're already doing what they want to do.

The casuals is a lost cause, this is one of the main reasons why MS got rid of the Kinect so quickly; they realized that regular gamers had no interest in the shallow implementation that was being offered at the time and they saw that a more shallow customer base was already getting their fix elsewhere and for a fraction of the price and with greatly increased mobility and flexibility and connectivity; it simply could not be matched by a static device such as a home console.



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zorg1000 said:
Soundwave said:

The other thing to consider too is Wii U will be facing much more blistering competetion from PS4/X1 this year.

Neither console really has "revved" up yet, this is the year you will start to see the first really "big" PS4/X1 titles and exclusives built specifically for the system, not just games built for last-gen upscaled for "next-gen". Batman Arkham, Metal Gear Solid V, maybe Final Fantasy XV, Uncharted IV, Halo V, etc. 

I think PS4 will see it's first price reduction to $349.99 this year too and MS will push the X1 down again to $299.99 for the holiday season 2015. 

I think Wii U will kinda be left in the dust. So Wii U being $249.99 isn't really some game changer. 

The sad thing is really the Wii U hasn't really faced "hard" competetion just yet, the PS4/X1 have been kinda just waking up and getting ready until now, that changes in 2015. 

I see what ur saying but at the same time many people said the same thing about last year. They said 2014 would be worse than 2013 because PS4/XB1 would be available. They also said things like XB1 at $350 was too close to Wii U and would hurt it's sales yet Dec 2014 went on to be the biggest month Wii U has ever had.


I think people need to understand though that 600k for a December is fairly poor still. The GameCube destroyed that number every December until like it was on its deathbed in 2005 and it's a modest 20% increase YoY, nothing huge. Being the "best selling" month for Wii U isn't saying much because it has fairly anemic monthly sales. 

It's like a fat guy saying he only went to McDonalds four times this week instead of his usual five or six times. I mean yeah, hurrah it's an improvement, but it's still not exactly good either. 

I think people were expecting bigger games for the PS4/X1 to be out by now too, but they're still in the "warming up" phase, this year, 2015 is when they will really start to get their big guns. 



Mummelmann said:
To anyone citing the "casual gamer" as a deux ex machina to get the Wii U into decent level of sales; these people are already gaming, on their iPad, smartphones, social games and browser games and the possibilities are only growing in all these market segments; these consumers have no mind towards home consoles regardless of price, software or advertisement when they're already doing what they want to do.

The casuals is a lost cause, this is one of the main reasons why MS got rid of the Kinect so quickly; they realized that regular gamers had no interest in the shallow implementation that was being offered at the time and they saw that a more shallow customer base was already getting their fix elsewhere and for a fraction of the price and with greatly increased mobility and flexibility and connectivity; it simply could not be matched by a static device such as a home console.

Yeah exactly. Smartphones/tablets are simply the perfect consumer device for casual gaming far moreso than even the Wii or Kinect (platforms anchored to the living room) could ever dream of being. 

Cheap, incredibly simple to pick up and play arcadey/retro style games, portable, and of course with all the other functionality that casuals are more interested in to boot (Facebook, Twitter, Instragram web browsing, email, texting, music, etc. etc.). 

There's no woman who take a Wii or Kinect over an iPad, and women were really a big part of the Wii's initial success. Apple completely took that away. 



Soundwave said:
zorg1000 said:
Soundwave said:

The other thing to consider too is Wii U will be facing much more blistering competetion from PS4/X1 this year.

Neither console really has "revved" up yet, this is the year you will start to see the first really "big" PS4/X1 titles and exclusives built specifically for the system, not just games built for last-gen upscaled for "next-gen". Batman Arkham, Metal Gear Solid V, maybe Final Fantasy XV, Uncharted IV, Halo V, etc. 

I think PS4 will see it's first price reduction to $349.99 this year too and MS will push the X1 down again to $299.99 for the holiday season 2015. 

I think Wii U will kinda be left in the dust. So Wii U being $249.99 isn't really some game changer. 

The sad thing is really the Wii U hasn't really faced "hard" competetion just yet, the PS4/X1 have been kinda just waking up and getting ready until now, that changes in 2015. 

I see what ur saying but at the same time many people said the same thing about last year. They said 2014 would be worse than 2013 because PS4/XB1 would be available. They also said things like XB1 at $350 was too close to Wii U and would hurt it's sales yet Dec 2014 went on to be the biggest month Wii U has ever had.


I think people need to understand though that 600k for a December is fairly poor still. The GameCube destroyed that number every December until like it was on its deathbed in 2005 and it's a modest 20% increase YoY, nothing huge. Being the "best selling" month for Wii U isn't saying much because it has fairly anemic monthly sales. 

It's like a fat guy saying he only went to McDonalds four times this week instead of his usual five or six times. I mean yeah, hurrah it's an improvement, but it's still not exactly good either. 

I think people were expecting bigger games for the PS4/X1 to be out by now too, but they're still in the "warming up" phase, this year, 2015 is when they will really start to get their big guns. 

I didn't say the sales were good, just that some people thought sales would be down but instead improved.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

Soundwave said:
Mummelmann said:
To anyone citing the "casual gamer" as a deux ex machina to get the Wii U into decent level of sales; these people are already gaming, on their iPad, smartphones, social games and browser games and the possibilities are only growing in all these market segments; these consumers have no mind towards home consoles regardless of price, software or advertisement when they're already doing what they want to do.

The casuals is a lost cause, this is one of the main reasons why MS got rid of the Kinect so quickly; they realized that regular gamers had no interest in the shallow implementation that was being offered at the time and they saw that a more shallow customer base was already getting their fix elsewhere and for a fraction of the price and with greatly increased mobility and flexibility and connectivity; it simply could not be matched by a static device such as a home console.

Yeah exactly. Smartphones/tablets are simply the perfect consumer device for casual gaming far moreso than even the Wii or Kinect (platforms anchored to the living room) could ever dream of being. 

Cheap, incredibly simple to pick up and play arcadey/retro style games, portable, and of course with all the other functionality that casuals are more interested in to boot (Facebook, Twitter, Instragram web browsing, email, texting, music, etc. etc.). 

There's no woman who take a Wii or Kinect over an iPad, and women were really a big part of the Wii's initial success. Apple completely took that away. 


Indeed, after moving to a big city, I'm quite simply astounded by how big mobile gaming has become, on the subway especially and in cafe's, even restaurants and sometimes even in nightclubs when guests are bored. The smart devices have invaded this market and they are not giving them up, and even if there was a way; the PS4, Xbox One and Wii U are most certainly not the tools to do the trick.



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Soleron said:

I think Wii U will be down a lot, and 3DS will be flat.

Zelda, Splatoon and Star Fox have limited appeal to the non-Wii U owner compared to Smash and Mario Kart. In particular I think Star Fox's sales are going to prove past-Nintendo right about it not being worth making.


I don't get why they can't just make a "normal" Star Fox game. 

Star Fox Adventures and even Star Fox Assault tried to shoe-horn in third person adventure/action sequences into the game (well SFA was blatantly something else with Star Fox tacked on). 

The DS Star Fox game force fed a bunch of unwanted touchscreen functionality making it not so fun to play. 

I hope the Wii U Star Fox doesn't have the same problem with a bunch superficial "tilt the controller around!!" type stuff to show off the GamePad. 

Just make a freaking good Star Fox game. It's not that hard. 



Soundwave said:
Mummelmann said:
To anyone citing the "casual gamer" as a deux ex machina to get the Wii U into decent level of sales; these people are already gaming, on their iPad, smartphones, social games and browser games and the possibilities are only growing in all these market segments; these consumers have no mind towards home consoles regardless of price, software or advertisement when they're already doing what they want to do.

The casuals is a lost cause, this is one of the main reasons why MS got rid of the Kinect so quickly; they realized that regular gamers had no interest in the shallow implementation that was being offered at the time and they saw that a more shallow customer base was already getting their fix elsewhere and for a fraction of the price and with greatly increased mobility and flexibility and connectivity; it simply could not be matched by a static device such as a home console.

Yeah exactly. Smartphones/tablets are simply the perfect consumer device for casual gaming far moreso than even the Wii or Kinect (platforms anchored to the living room) could ever dream of being. 

Cheap, incredibly simple to pick up and play arcadey/retro style games, portable, and of course with all the other functionality that casuals are more interested in to boot (Facebook, Twitter, Instragram web browsing, email, texting, music, etc. etc.). 

There's no woman who take a Wii or Kinect over an iPad, and women were really a big part of the Wii's initial success. Apple completely took that away.

Ya, another big reason is because most people would own a smartphone/tablet regardless of having the ability to play games so having access to hundreds of free games on a device u already own really makes dedicated gaming devices pretty useless to them.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

Over the holidays someone left their iPhone at the local Farmer's Market in my area. Having lost my phone, I decided to take it in to the local Apple store to see if they could locate the owner. The main screen was locked via password so I had no way of calling the owner of the phone or anything like that. 

Long story short, it belonged to a greatful 40-something woman who called the phone and came by and picked it up from my house. What I did notice though from her lock screen was that she was getting these Clash of Clans notices.

I was just thinking ... she games on her iPhone, probably on a regular basis too. I'm sorry but smartphone/tablet gaming has simply infiltrated the true casual mainstream in a way that the Wii and Kinect (devices that maybe casuals used once or twice a week after the hype wore off) never could manage.

I also fly a lot and I've said this before, but at virtually every airport, where there's a hundred families in plain view, the number of kids I see playing on their own or their parents iPad/iPhone/tablet outnumbers traditional gaming devices by like 10 to 1 *easily*. I'm probably being very generous to traditional handhelds too, nowadays it's only a few times in a blue moon that I see a kid playing on their DS/3DS versus a tablet/parent's phone, and again because I travel a lot I see tons of families waiting to board their flight all the time. 

I think sometimes "hardcore" gamers who are stuck on their message boards really don't know what's happening on the front lines as it were. This isn't a battle anymore, this is a full on rout. 



ExplodingBlock said:

In 2014, Wii U and 3DS sold a combined total of  13,068,773

I think that number will be bigger in 2015!

I predict it will be around 15m-16m

What says you?

Jeeze, that's depressing. I didn't realise PS4>3DS+Wii U in 2014. And the prediction is for the same to happen again in 2015.

I think without N3DS 3DS would fall significantly YoY. And I expect Japan to be down YoY since the N3DS has already had it's boosting effect there. So for 3DS I'm guessing it will be fairly flat. Wii U I'm not sure about. Year 3 should be peak year for a console so yes, perhaps 15-20% YoY growth.

If 3DS is flat, and Wii U is 15-20% growth then that would make 2015 about 14 million combined.



“The fundamental cause of the trouble is that in the modern world the stupid are cocksure while the intelligent are full of doubt.” - Bertrand Russell

"When the power of love overcomes the love of power, the world will know peace."

Jimi Hendrix

 

Yakuzaice said:
FromDK said:

Second.. can you be more specific.. Only said 3 things.. for the sake of good debate.. please say what you think makes no sense.

1. We will start seing more casual gamers now

2. Casual gamers do not look at "release schedule"but the games allready out

3. The parents will also start buying for smaller childeren

Do you really think.. this is so fare out.. and makes no sense.. (becourse for me it's a fact... just saying)

You keep saying these things will happen, but you still aren't giving good reasons for why these things will happen.  You especially aren't giving an explanation for why they will result in sales doubling from last year.

1. The biggest casual games from the Wii have been available on the Wii U for a while.  Wii sports, Mario Kart, New Super Mario Bros, Wii Fit, Just Dance, Wii Party, Mario & Sonic, etc have all been available on the Wii U for 6+ months.  What reason do casual players have to dive in today that they didn't have a couple months ago?

2. Same deal, what games out today weren't out a month ago that will result in sales doubling?

3. Why?  Is it cheaper?  Are the games cheaper?  What will suddenly cause parents to start buying Wii U's in 2015?

If these things are facts to you, surely you can substantiate them more than just saying they will happen.

You may have misunderstod me.. I say 2 things..

First I state that the casuals will start entering this gen.. (Not that they will buy a WiiU) Just the 100% pure fact.. That they haven't entered gen 8.. and 2015 will be the year when they start come.. (this can not in any way be up for debate)

Then I say that i believe that WiiU will get are good part of them (becourse they by far.. as I see it... have the best offer to people just wanna have fun) and therefor the double sales..

So It's a fact.. and a prediction.. kind of.. but I offcourse hope you can see it to.. That WiiU may stand pretty good with that group of gamers

1. I have named the "reasons" many times in the tread now.. come on.. They haven't "dive in" the Ps4 or One either... But they will for sure start to come.. The more "casual" player.. will start to enter the gen in 2015.. (and they made up of more than 50% last gen.. i don't know how many.. just a number.. but normal people buys the console.. phone.. tablet.. they like at the moment they buy it.. when lookin at price and things.. in this case mostly games available and services.. usefullness)

And as i see it.. all things point at WiiU for that group..

(And don't just take my word for it.. Look at Wii.. MK Wii.. Look WiiU games rating.. Look at how 3DS totally destroy Sony's handheld.. There is in fact a marked for Nintendo)

2. I was answering.. "They do not have a constant release schedule" And I say they do not need one.. future buyers will look more at whats available.. Than what comes next year

3. Sorry.. i thouht you knew a was talking about WiiU.. :)  WiiU is the cheapest console.. and it could very well get a pricecut more this year. (and casuals also look at what things cost a month.. so when they compare prices they will also include pay for online on the "alternative consoles")

And parents is offcourse big part of "the casual segment"..  and are mostly paying..

So I do not say "some will just happend" I say "some always happen (the casuals entering the gen) and I Believe that WiiU is the best offer for them.. you ask me why.. and I say.. the same.. Games. price. brand. experinces..