so how's a bet on that? i say no way in hell does ps4 get to 45m until mid-2016 (if then), you say december 31, 2015. it almost seems unfair given the downward pressure of reality on crazy figures like 45m by year-end (that means the system will have to outsell itself to date by nearly, ironically, 45% in 2015 with a total of 2.2m PER MONTH), but if you'll take me up i'm game.

There is no reason to think that PS4 has peaked already at $400 and with the vast majority of its library still cross-gen games.

The PS4 will reach 40 million console sales as COD, FIFA, Madden and other multi-plats and PS4 exclusive game releases help the PS4 sell over 20 million console in 2015 and help the PS4 climb towards 40 million by the end of 2015.

I think it will hit 34 million, but not much more. Besides, aren't your calculation a bit off?

Yay! Another Sony/PS4 prediction to add to my sig.

I say 38M.

Why not just predict >35 million sell through? Seems highly likely that PS4 will sell through at least 17M in 2015 as year 2 should get fairly decent growth over year one.

Seems we are mostly all agreed the ps4 will have a fantastic year, approximately doubling its numbers. It will have a larger catalogue of games and no doubt a price reduction and there may be new developments coming in like a VR headset that may be officially announced if not launched this year. While I don't have a ps4 yet I'm building up a library on psn plus for one and expect to get one sometime this year.

I think its more interesting what will happen with wii u and xbone. Microsoft had a brilliant fight back to get back in the game but Nintendo seems to have given up on wii u. Those numbers are less easy to predict.

My prediction for 2015 year end is;

PS4 39m
Xbone 22m
Wii u 13m

Despite being a wii u owner myself I just can't see the wii u doing well this year. I'm only expecting to make 2-3 purchases for it myself and now with a complete lack of third party major titles I just don't see many buying it. It desperately needs a re-designed controller but not sure Nintendo will invest in it as the underlying console hardware is so weak and that won't restore third party support.

I think wii u will get even more marginalized this year with more retailers not stocking it. I think Nintendo have left it too late to fight back and will be forced into more aggressive pricing this year just to keep sales ticking over at low levels.

Microsoft will continue to offer exclusive titles in a console close to ps4 performance and do well in distant 2nd place but I feel as more aggressive pricing comes in European sales will recover.

I'll hazard a guess - 40 million which will be helped by :-

CHINA - CHINA - CHINA
Stronger lineup for 2015
and possibly a perm price cut bringing it to $299 ; £250 in Oct/Nov

Sony want this selling for 10 years. They will reduce the price as little as possible. I only see it going down to stop the xbox becoming 100$ cheaper. As long as they sell what they can produce they won't drop it much either.

This is a very tame prediction. But it's highly likely, yes.