This graph represents ps3 2009 vs ps4 2015

I chose ps3 2009 as it was a banner year with a lot of big releases including uncharted 2, killzone 2, infamous, street fighter, re:5, and ff13 along with the slim introduction in september along with a 100$ price drop. I think both years will be very similar in terms of sales trend.

The total comes out to around 17.5m

I think this is doable.

You need to think bigger.....

why u no wait 4 numbers?

It will do a lot more than 3.5m next december, when you consider it's going to do 4m+ just this december, right now I'm predicting 6mill alone just in December next year.

Any analysis for xb1 and wiiu? just for the sake of comparison

Well, I do agree with the Lord Lichtenstein thread, but I'm having a hard time finding a data set that would match it.

The games that are coming out are not, well, they're not HUGE IP franchises. ps3 had years with big games coming out and almost no change to sales. While I agree that the ps4 has a lot more going for it, I'm finding it hard to justify an increase of nearly 30% year over year, with the current baseline it should have during the year. The problem with Lord's assumptions is that he's using the 30% increase into 2008 and 2009, but not taking into account how under-supported ps3 was, or that both years had extremely significant price drops. One being the 400$ model, and the next being the slim and another price drop.

Sony likely doesn't want or need to do anything so drastic, so I'm not seeing that 30%. Instead, I'm looking more at the 15% increase from 2009 to 10, where Sony had good deals, good games, little competition, and just solid support and growing consumer adoption.

Actually, sorry, my numbers have it at 4.5m in the graph. I miswrote. But how do you figure ps4 is going to do 4m+ in december. Right now we have week 1 at 750
Week 2 at 850

To reach 4m+ it needs to do 2.4m in the next two weeks, which seems pretty iffy.

maybe next week, if they're lucky 1050
Then they would need 1350.

That's really a huge number just to reach 4m.

A quick estimate would be 10m and 4m...but it's really all about how and when they price drop. It's a really tough call. As you can see, the slim model on ps3 improved sales by almost 100%. It's crazy.

Plus, I have an alternative theory out there that the xb1 was designed to be oversized purposely to make a slim-line model much earlier. PS3 took 3 years before slim...but x1 has a new chipset coming out, possibly smaller ram chips, and a much smaller box. They could do it in less than 2 years imo. IF they can get a slim out, I think they can easily nab 12m

but they get too many upcoming games next holiday.......too many until they had to reschedule some releases to next holiday in 2016

ok this could be apply to the US only...not globally, because even with price drops and new slim model it couldn't convince the global market to buy it. MS does not have global support

so i'm guessing maybe 7-9 million.

It's simple. Sales continually degrade over time. ps4 really SHOULDN'T be where I put it at a baseline because it's not like a whole lot has changed from this year to next. The only change is the china introduction, which really should be a non-factor...a few hundred thousand. Look at really any year and you'll see that sales go down over the course of the year.

This is the ps2

PS4 is at a ridiculous 8.4m FY 2013 just on the first FY
This year FY2014, is already at 10m, and will likely be at 13m-14m by FY end.
The thing is, ps4 WILL outsell 20m, but only by March 30, 2016, from April 1 2015....because the real meat of that 20m is going to come from a year in which more than 50% of the months are at the new price.

Of course, this really all depends on when the price drop happens. I will concede that if ps4 has a price drop in march, we will see 20m. However, if it's not until September, it is unlikely. I made my prediction under the assumption that Sony is just completely dominating right now and has really no reason to drop price. Especially when they should believe, as I do, that a 20m+ FY 2016 is very possible.

Plus, the games we're getting this year aren't AAA franchises, they're almost all new ips. While that's great, it won't provide the same boost as if say, we got God of War, Killzone, Infamous, and Final Fantasy all in one year.

Since FF15 is set to release in 2016, and we will likely hear about a new god of war at e3, and possible new killzone, I'd say 2016 is the year that will see possibly into the mid 20m's+

You also have to consider the amazing support ps4 had this year. It's not really similar to the ps3 situation in any way. I believe this year is about 20% bigger than it should have been for Sony. That will help level off sales in the coming year.

(oh, last thing. If we see ffXV out next year in Japan in time for Christmas, you can add an easy 1m onto that.)