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theprof00 on 31 December 2014
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BraLoD said:
theprof00 said:
BraLoD said:
It's going over 20M next year IMO.

Well, I do agree with the Lord Lichtenstein thread, but I'm having a hard time finding a data set that would match it.

The games that are coming out are not, well, they're not HUGE IP franchises. ps3 had years with big games coming out and almost no change to sales. While I agree that the ps4 has a lot more going for it, I'm finding it hard to justify an increase of nearly 30% year over year, with the current baseline it should have during the year. The problem with Lord's assumptions is that he's using the 30% increase into 2008 and 2009, but not taking into account how under-supported ps3 was, or that both years had extremely significant price drops. One being the 400$ model, and the next being the slim and another price drop.

Sony likely doesn't want or need to do anything so drastic, so I'm not seeing that 30%. Instead, I'm looking more at the 15% increase from 2009 to 10, where Sony had good deals, good games, little competition, and just solid support and growing consumer adoption.

Considering the PS4 end this year with 20M (or very close to it), that means it sold around 16M this year alone.
With a WAY better library next year, wisely spread all over the year, and considering a $100 price cut. 20M should be very possible.
Getting only 1.5M more sales with all this doesn't make much sense to me. 19M at least (so a 3M jump).
But I'm still very confident it will break the 20M barrier.

It's simple. Sales continually degrade over time. ps4 really SHOULDN'T be where I put it at a baseline because it's not like a whole lot has changed from this year to next. The only change is the china introduction, which really should be a non-factor...a few hundred thousand. Look at really any year and you'll see that sales go down over the course of the year.

Fiscal year ending March 31, 2000 1.41 1.41
Fiscal year ending March 31, 2001 9.20 10.61
Fiscal year ending March 31, 2002 18.07 28.68
Fiscal year ending March 31, 2003 22.52 51.20

This is the ps2

PS4 is at a ridiculous 8.4m FY 2013 just on the first FY
This year FY2014, is already at 10m, and will likely be at 13m-14m by FY end.
The thing is, ps4 WILL outsell 20m, but only by March 30, 2016, from April 1 2015....because the real meat of that 20m is going to come from a year in which more than 50% of the months are at the new price.

Of course, this really all depends on when the price drop happens. I will concede that if ps4 has a price drop in march, we will see 20m. However, if it's not until September, it is unlikely. I made my prediction under the assumption that Sony is just completely dominating right now and has really no reason to drop price. Especially when they should believe, as I do, that a 20m+ FY 2016 is very possible.

Plus, the games we're getting this year aren't AAA franchises, they're almost all new ips. While that's great, it won't provide the same boost as if say, we got God of War, Killzone, Infamous, and Final Fantasy all in one year.

Since FF15 is set to release in 2016, and we will likely hear about a new god of war at e3, and possible new killzone, I'd say 2016 is the year that will see possibly into the mid 20m's+

You also have to consider the amazing support ps4 had this year. It's not really similar to the ps3 situation in any way. I believe this year is about 20% bigger than it should have been for Sony. That will help level off sales in the coming year.

(oh, last thing. If we see ffXV out next year in Japan in time for Christmas, you can add an easy 1m onto that.)