- Based on the 781 number global for the 13th december 2014, we should see just about 900k next week, and around 1m on christmas week.
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- This in turn, commands a 40% drop over drop for the next three weeks to establish the baseline
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- Wherein, week 1 is 600k, week 2 is 360, and week 3 is 216k..let's say 220 for good measure. Week 3 is boosted slightly by china launch, so 250
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- Nothing for the rest of January, so a small drop with the China surge, and considering dynasty warriors. Let's say 240
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- February has some big games, but nothing first week, small drops and boosts. Evolve should increas by 4%, and week 3 with order and DoA should add 9%
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- March has a few big games, but most importantly bloodborn on week 4, ff type-0, battlefield, project cars. Similar boosts as last month..first 2 are sunk past baseline
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- back to a third over baseline shortly after
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- April has two somewhat fan games on first two weeks. The show should increase by 5-10% of new baseline. Dark souls, maybe 3%
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- Next bunch of weeks are tug of war with price. I think the lowest it will drop is 170
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- Last week of August is e3, where I believe we'll see a price cut of around 100$ and a bundle, to be introduced first week of September
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- October will likely have uncharted 4, somewhere in the middle of the month. 20% increase
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- November has holiday sales kick in, then black Friday, where we should see a really nice bundle boost to maybe 900k or 1m+
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- Then December should see almost 3.5m in sales
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This graph represents ps3 2009 vs ps4 2015
I chose ps3 2009 as it was a banner year with a lot of big releases including uncharted 2, killzone 2, infamous, street fighter, re:5, and ff13 along with the slim introduction in september along with a 100$ price drop. I think both years will be very similar in terms of sales trend.
The total comes out to around 17.5m
I think this is doable.
