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Forums - Sales - PS4 will sell more in its first year than PS3 in its peak year

Spoiler Alert: Steam console releases next year and kills PS4 momentum meaning this year is its peak :o



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vivster said:
So PS4 peaked early.

PS4 did not peak yet, just first year after Launch.  It will most probably peak when the Slim Model will be available(Nov 2015 or Sept 2016).



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Dusk said:
platformmaster918 said:
vivster said:
So PS4 peaked early.

well you couldn't possibly know that but suuuuuuuuure


No, but it does seem like it's a fairly educated guess. The PS4 had a hard time being kept on shelves for the first part of the year, that was with really good shipment numbers, and that has worked out in their favor, but the second half hasn't had that issue. The consoles are everywhere now and the hype is fading for the console. It has already dropped in price and that helped sales as well, but it can't drop again too soon, Sony can't loose too much money on it, software sales haven't been as good as expected so they can't afford to dig too much of a hole on the console sales. It has been record breaking for sales, but now the X1 has been selling quite well which it wasn't at first, even the Wii U is up YOY becuase it finally has a crap ton of great games that people want. Black Friday wasn't nearly as good as Sony was expecting and now there is an abundance of PS4's around, even after Christmas and boxing day, at least from what I have seen in my area, and online. 

So they're not out of stock and so it must mean that it peaked.  X1 dropped in price FAR more.  PS4 basically had $400 bundles with a couple games as their main BF deal.  Meanwhile Xbox had $330 bundles with 2 or 3 games.  They made far more profit and still sold more WW even with their lackluster bundle effort.  Most of their big software is coming next year along with less cross-gen to further incentivize 7th genners to upgrade and with snowball effect and a return to price parity (or close to it even if Xbox stays at $350) I think they'll be just fine.  Europe is going to continue to be a HUGE slice for Sony and Japan is definitely going to get stronger next year with software finally coming for that audience along with continued parity or near to it in the US=PS4 just now hitting its stride.  Look at the sales trend of every Sony home console ever.  That's a pretty good pattern established after 3 gens.




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Troll_Whisperer said:
Dusk said:
vivster said:
So PS4 peaked early.


That's kind of what I was thinking. I wouldn't be surprised if this ends up being the PS4's peak year. Sony has hyped the hell out of it and it has worked. More hyped than any other console so far. Unfortunately much of the hype has been about the power of the system but little on the games. People were clamouring for it. I don't think this momentum can really keep up. It's still going to sell well, but not to the same extent as where the bar has been set for it. It'll be down YOY, the hype is fading and many of the games haven't come out yet or have been pushed back farther and farther. 

No way its first year is going to be its peak year. That's almost unheard of in video game console history. As far as I know, it only happened to GameCube and PS4 ain't no GameCube.

With more software, a price cut and more people that have friends with PS4s, it's guaranteed to be up YoY.

I'm willing to bet on it if you want.

What's your point? It has nothing to do with a comparison between consoles, it has to do with the market, marketing, saturation, hype and games.

From some of the people I know that own PS4's, the more I hear that they aren't that happy with them because it's much of the same as PS3 just with less games. They weren't impressed with rereleases of games like GTAV and TLOU because they already had them on their PS3's, they enjoy shooters but for the most part don't like Destiny, so it's back to the same games with COD, AC, BF4 ect. I know a few Sony fans that are waiting for some Japanese RPG's to be released before they think about picking up the PS4 as well. 

From what I have seen on here, the betting thing is kinda redonk, I'm gonna pass. But if I'm wrong, then that's fine. Although with how oddly successful the PS4 has been this year, especially when we keep hearing that the console market is shrinking, it could still be it's best year. Only time will tell. 



Gotta figure out how to set these up lol.

Turkish said:
Just wait when it's 299 next year... it's gonna sell even more.


What makes you think it's going to drop to 299 next year? Maybe near the end of the year to try to boost sales if it's necessary (meaning if sales slow down), but Sony can't afford to throw away too much money on consoles, their software sales haven't been as good as they were hoping. Well, the entire industries software sales have been down.



Gotta figure out how to set these up lol.

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platformmaster918 said:
Dusk said:
platformmaster918 said:
vivster said:
So PS4 peaked early.

well you couldn't possibly know that but suuuuuuuuure


No, but it does seem like it's a fairly educated guess. The PS4 had a hard time being kept on shelves for the first part of the year, that was with really good shipment numbers, and that has worked out in their favor, but the second half hasn't had that issue. The consoles are everywhere now and the hype is fading for the console. It has already dropped in price and that helped sales as well, but it can't drop again too soon, Sony can't loose too much money on it, software sales haven't been as good as expected so they can't afford to dig too much of a hole on the console sales. It has been record breaking for sales, but now the X1 has been selling quite well which it wasn't at first, even the Wii U is up YOY becuase it finally has a crap ton of great games that people want. Black Friday wasn't nearly as good as Sony was expecting and now there is an abundance of PS4's around, even after Christmas and boxing day, at least from what I have seen in my area, and online. 

So they're not out of stock and so it must mean that it peaked.  X1 dropped in price FAR more.  PS4 basically had $400 bundles with a couple games as their main BF deal.  Meanwhile Xbox had $330 bundles with 2 or 3 games.  They made far more profit and still sold more WW even with their lackluster bundle effort.  Most of their big software is coming next year along with less cross-gen to further incentivize 7th genners to upgrade and with snowball effect and a return to price parity (or close to it even if Xbox stays at $350) I think they'll be just fine.  Europe is going to continue to be a HUGE slice for Sony and Japan is definitely going to get stronger next year with software finally coming for that audience along with continued parity or near to it in the US=PS4 just now hitting its stride.  Look at the sales trend of every Sony home console ever.  That's a pretty good pattern established after 3 gens.


That's not what I said. You are inferring that. All I'm saying is that it seems that the sales have started slowing down, that's a hell of a lot different than peaked lol. 

Actually here in Canada (where I'm from), the prices for the PS4 are far better than the X1, but there are some good X1 bundles with multiple games, but they are usually about $50 more than a comparable PS4 bundle. 

I agree about Europe, not sure about Japan, they seem so handheld-centric. 

Sure patterns are good, grand, wonderful and all, but that doesn't mean there aren't one offs. I'm not trying to be pessemistic, the PS4 has had a great year and next will likely be good as well, I just think it won't be as high, that doesn't mean it will stop selling. 



Gotta figure out how to set these up lol.

Dusk said:

What's your point? It has nothing to do with a comparison between consoles, it has to do with the market, marketing, saturation, hype and games.

From some of the people I know that own PS4's, the more I hear that they aren't that happy with them because it's much of the same as PS3 just with less games. They weren't impressed with rereleases of games like GTAV and TLOU because they already had them on their PS3's, they enjoy shooters but for the most part don't like Destiny, so it's back to the same games with COD, AC, BF4 ect. I know a few Sony fans that are waiting for some Japanese RPG's to be released before they think about picking up the PS4 as well. 

From what I have seen on here, the betting thing is kinda redonk, I'm gonna pass. But if I'm wrong, then that's fine. Although with how oddly successful the PS4 has been this year, especially when we keep hearing that the console market is shrinking, it could still be it's best year. Only time will tell. 

Eeeeh, that's super-anecdotal really. The chances of PS4 doing worse in its second year are close to nil, but as you said time will tell.



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Shadow1980 said:
Troll_Whisperer said:

No way its first year is going to be its peak year. That's almost unheard of in video game console history. As far as I know, it only happened to GameCube and PS4 ain't no GameCube.

With more software, a price cut and more people that have friends with PS4s, it's guaranteed to be up YoY.

I'm willing to bet on it if you want.


The SNES and N64 peaked in their first years in the U.S., and the Wii peaked in its first year in Japan, so it does happen, just not often. Also, few systems peak in their fourth year or later; the Genesis peaked in its fourth year (at least in the U.S.), while the 360 and PS3 peaked even later than that. The second year is most often the peak, followed by the third year. Usually, if a system peaks really early or really late, it was subject to unusual conditions, e.g., the Genesis selling dreadfully until 1991 when Nintendo lost their de facto monopoly on the market.

Yes, I knew about the Wii in Japan. Also, the Wii U in Japan (bar a miracle). I didn't know about those other cases, but I'd argue they are localized and always Nintendo systems.

I mean, I get it's technically possible that PS4 peaked in its first year, but it really is very, very unlikely.



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Dusk... I'll take your prediction as wishfull thinking, unless you can back that up... Saying "it sold so good, sony is poor, it isn't stock restricted anymore" isn't real reasons for sales to drop.



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