PS4 will sell more in its first year than PS3 in its peak year

[Troll_Whisperer]

Shadow1980 said:

Troll_Whisperer said:

No way its first year is going to be its peak year. That's almost unheard of in video game console history. As far as I know, it only happened to GameCube and PS4 ain't no GameCube.

With more software, a price cut and more people that have friends with PS4s, it's guaranteed to be up YoY.

I'm willing to bet on it if you want.

The SNES and N64 peaked in their first years in the U.S., and the Wii peaked in its first year in Japan, so it does happen, just not often. Also, few systems peak in their fourth year or later; the Genesis peaked in its fourth year (at least in the U.S.), while the 360 and PS3 peaked even later than that. The second year is most often the peak, followed by the third year. Usually, if a system peaks really early or really late, it was subject to unusual conditions, e.g., the Genesis selling dreadfully until 1991 when Nintendo lost their de facto monopoly on the market.

Yes, I knew about the Wii in Japan. Also, the Wii U in Japan (bar a miracle). I didn't know about those other cases, but I'd argue they are localized and always Nintendo systems.

I mean, I get it's technically possible that PS4 peaked in its first year, but it really is very, very unlikely.