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Forums - Sales - Global Hardware Up 13 December 2014

alrightiwill on 30 December 2014

I don't think XBO numbers will be as high this time around as 360. Mostly because now there is no point in owning both consoles. By that I mean you would have to pay two subscription charges so I think that will stop a lot of people that might have bought both consoles such as people buying a 360 and also a PS3.

Another factor to take into account is second purchases. I think we all know at least one person who has purchased a second console after theirs had failed. I had to buy a second PS3 :@ Judging from early analysis though, this current gen seems to be of better build than the previous gen, so many this will lead to less purchases too.



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Welfare on 30 December 2014
DerNebel said:

http://seattletimes.com/html/businesstechnology/2025273406_briercolumn22xml.html

Wouldn't be surprised if he was talking shipments and/or US only, wouldn't be the first time.

If the Wii U has actually been undertracked by over a million in the last 3 months, with accurate japanese numbers and accurate US numbers until November, then... well then vgchartz is just useless in the holidays...

Seems like he is just talking about US.

When he says "Software sales have almost doubled and hardware sales are up about 40 percent over last year", he is actually talking about Wii U 2013 YTD Jan-Nov to Wii U 2014 YTD Jan-Nov. Wii U YTD 2013 Jan-Nov was 730k, and Wii U YTD 2014 Jan-Nov is 992k That is a 36% increase YoY, so his statement is correct, seeing as he says "about" and not "exactly".

Wii U PR for NPD November said YoY increase was "about" 10%, but it was closer to 8%, so we know Nintendo aren't exact with percentages.

Wii U is not over tracked.



Won bet with t3mporary_126 - I correctly predicted that the Wii U's LTD at the end of 2014 would be closer to 9 million than 10 million. http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=6673287

Ninsect on 30 December 2014
tak13 said:
Ninsect said:

Eh, breaking it down per region requires a lot more than predicting lifetime sales but just for some rough numbers:

NA - 40m
Europe - 45-50m
Japan - barely 10m
ROW - 20-25m+

As for the second part of your post: I didn't read any posts saying PS4 was being undertracked in the US. Did you?

 

Edit: "But seeing as you are in a mood to provide numbers can you break down the lifetime totals per region (pezus doesnt want to)"

Wow, do you think I'm monitoring this thread constantly? Give me a few minutes will ya.


Barely the half!Same numbers with ps3,really?This is Japan,ps4 passing psvita's lt sales?:O

You're still waiting miracles from japanese games?

Then you mock 20m predictions for wii u...

Barely the half what? Yes, I expect PS4 to end up with similar numbers as PS3 and outsell PSV eventually. As of now it has approximately zero big Japanese titles out but LOTS on the way.

Please show me where I mocked 20m predictions. I said 20m wasn't going to happen, let alone 25m.



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Ninsect on 30 December 2014
tak13 said:
Ninsect said:

Thing is, XB1 doesn't need to "BEAST" PS4 anywhere to reach 70m. If it can reach 40m in NA, which I see as a possibility as long as MS keep being competitive, it would only need 30m from the rest of the world. Almost 10m of that will most likely come from the UK, leaving 20m from the rest of Europe and rest of the world.

PS4 would still be dozens upon dozens of millions ahead of XB1 globally.


You can't have your cake and eat it too!40m for xbone in NA,automatically would mean deprivation of many sales from ps4 there!

Which is why I said 40m+ for PS4 and not 50-60m+...



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Ninsect on 30 December 2014
binary solo said:
Ninsect said:

Which market are PS4XB1 splitting? They are way ahead of PS360 last generation. Obviously there is some spillover from Wii.

As for the UK, even if I'm slightly overestimating it there it will hardly matter much for the final total. Near 70m is still my guess.

The size of the xb/PS market is fairly static, Actuall it shrunk from gen 6 to 7 with all the casuals going to Wii, and then exiting consoles to go mobile/Facebook casual. Ps2 took the vast majority of the market the ps3/360 split it evenly, though with significant imbalances in individual markets. The gen ps4 will once again dominate, but not quite to the same extent. There will be no market growth for PS/xb this gen. The last gen where there was genuine growth of gamers was Ps2 gen. Gen 7 was a one time thing giving a false impression of a major expansion of the number of gamers in the world.

So xb one and PS4 will be fighting over about 160 million users. Best case for Xb one is 60 million to PS4's 100 million. 

People should not get confused between fast sales and sustained sales. Ps4 won't burn quite as hot and short as Wii, but it will be more like a Wii pattern than the more gradual and longer lived PS360 sales patterns. And xb one is following a similar track. it will burn out very fast in all but the English speaking markets, if MS doesn't do something different.

Again, you're simplifying things way too much. You're assuming every single one of the Wii buyers was a casual who has now gone mobile...that is a huge assumption and most likely wrong.

Secondly, the PS360 market is about 170m, not 160m.

Thirdly, what evidence do you have that PS4 will not last as long as PS3?



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OfficerRaichu15 on 30 December 2014
Welfare said:
DerNebel said:

http://seattletimes.com/html/businesstechnology/2025273406_briercolumn22xml.html

Wouldn't be surprised if he was talking shipments and/or US only, wouldn't be the first time.

If the Wii U has actually been undertracked by over a million in the last 3 months, with accurate japanese numbers and accurate US numbers until November, then... well then vgchartz is just useless in the holidays...

Seems like he is just talking about US.

When he says "Software sales have almost doubled and hardware sales are up about 40 percent over last year", he is actually talking about Wii U 2013 YTD Jan-Nov to Wii U 2014 YTD Jan-Nov. Wii U YTD 2013 Jan-Nov was 730k, and Wii U YTD 2014 Jan-Nov is 992k That is a 36% increase YoY, so his statement is correct, seeing as he says "about" and not "exactly".

Wii U PR for NPD November said YoY increase was "about" 10%, but it was closer to 8%, so we know Nintendo aren't exact with percentages.

Wii U is not over tracked.

makes sense

but but

its 5k undertracked probably



Bets:

(Won)Bet with TechoHobbit: He(Techno) says 10 million by January 1,2014 I say 9 million by then. Winner gets 2 weeks of sig control.

(Lost)Bet with kinisking: I say Ps4 will win April NPD while he says Xbox One will win it; winner gets 1 week of avatar control.

Raichu's First Series:

First RPG?

First Fighter?

First Racer?

First Shooter?

First MMO?

First Horror?

Official Ni No Kuni Fanboy:

Familiars Captured:37

Game Beaten: 2 times almost

Times I got teary during some scenes: 3

Ninsect on 30 December 2014
Welfare said:
DerNebel said:

http://seattletimes.com/html/businesstechnology/2025273406_briercolumn22xml.html

Wouldn't be surprised if he was talking shipments and/or US only, wouldn't be the first time.

If the Wii U has actually been undertracked by over a million in the last 3 months, with accurate japanese numbers and accurate US numbers until November, then... well then vgchartz is just useless in the holidays...

Seems like he is just talking about US.

When he says "Software sales have almost doubled and hardware sales are up about 40 percent over last year", he is actually talking about Wii U 2013 YTD Jan-Nov to Wii U 2014 YTD Jan-Nov. Wii U YTD 2013 Jan-Nov was 730k, and Wii U YTD 2014 Jan-Nov is 992k That is a 36% increase YoY, so his statement is correct, seeing as he says "about" and not "exactly".

Wii U PR for NPD November said YoY increase was "about" 10%, but it was closer to 8%, so we know Nintendo aren't exact with percentages.

Wii U is not over tracked.

Yep, thanks for that. Reggie doesn't have NPD numbers for Dec yet so this is the obvious conclusion.



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Dr.Vita on 30 December 2014

Where is the full update? :(




Dr.Vita talks about Playstation Vita in 2016!
Playstation Vita Media Create Sales (2014 vs 2015 vs 2016)
Playstation Vita Japan Retail Software Sales (2013 vs 2014 vs 2015 + 2015 LTD Edition)
Prediction: Nothing will outsell PSP anymore (except Playstation home consoles)

BHR-3 on 30 December 2014
binary solo said:
Ninsect said:
binary solo said:
Ninsect said:

Thing is, XB1 doesn't need to "BEAST" PS4 anywhere to reach 70m. If it can reach 40m in NA, which I see as a possibility as long as MS keep being competitive, it would only need 30m from the rest of the world. Almost 10m of that will most likely come from the UK, leaving 20m from the rest of Europe and rest of the world.

PS4 would still be dozens upon dozens of millions ahead of XB1 globally.

You're dreaming man. No way xb one hits 40M in USA. 360 is only on 44M and according to everyone other than vgc this is overtracking. Ps4 and Xb one are splitting the market which means roughly 30m each. And as for UK 360 is over 1M off reaching 10M which means 10M there is a pipe dream. The way the market is splitting there xb on will fall well short of 360. 

Which market are PS4XB1 splitting? They are way ahead of PS360 last generation. Obviously there is some spillover from Wii.

As for the UK, even if I'm slightly overestimating it there it will hardly matter much for the final total. Near 70m is still my guess.

The size of the xb/PS market is fairly static, Actuall it shrunk from gen 6 to 7 with all the casuals going to Wii, and then exiting consoles to go mobile/Facebook casual. Ps2 took the vast majority of the market the ps3/360 split it evenly, though with significant imbalances in individual markets. The gen ps4 will once again dominate, but not quite to the same extent. There will be no market growth for PS/xb this gen. The last gen where there was genuine growth of gamers was Ps2 gen. Gen 7 was a one time thing giving a false impression of a major expansion of the number of gamers in the world.

So xb one and PS4 will be fighting over about 160 million users. Best case for Xb one is 60 million to PS4's 100 million. 

People should not get confused between fast sales and sustained sales. Ps4 won't burn quite as hot and short as Wii, but it will be more like a Wii pattern than the more gradual and longer lived PS360 sales patterns. And xb one is following a similar track. it will burn out very fast in all but the English speaking markets, if MS doesn't do something different.

im gonna have to agree here with binary

 

last gen we also had a false impression b/c of the 360s hw failures and a lot of rebuys when both companies came out better cheaper redesigns

 

i feel console gaming now isnt as big as last gen b/c there isnt anything new or has that wow factor last gen we had 4.3 480p to 16.9 HD aswell as the rise of online gaming it was all new and fresh and everyone thought they were real soldiers playing COD so far this gen theres nothing really new or fresh even the graphics are as big of a leap

 

also about 50M of the ps2 sales occurred after the gen ended we will not see that again so it had about 100m sales in its natural console cycle



                                                             

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Dr.Vita on 01 January 2015

Ok, it is 2015 and we haven't the whole numbers from 13th December. :(




Dr.Vita talks about Playstation Vita in 2016!
Playstation Vita Media Create Sales (2014 vs 2015 vs 2016)
Playstation Vita Japan Retail Software Sales (2013 vs 2014 vs 2015 + 2015 LTD Edition)
Prediction: Nothing will outsell PSP anymore (except Playstation home consoles)