binary solo said:
The size of the xb/PS market is fairly static, Actuall it shrunk from gen 6 to 7 with all the casuals going to Wii, and then exiting consoles to go mobile/Facebook casual. Ps2 took the vast majority of the market the ps3/360 split it evenly, though with significant imbalances in individual markets. The gen ps4 will once again dominate, but not quite to the same extent. There will be no market growth for PS/xb this gen. The last gen where there was genuine growth of gamers was Ps2 gen. Gen 7 was a one time thing giving a false impression of a major expansion of the number of gamers in the world. So xb one and PS4 will be fighting over about 160 million users. Best case for Xb one is 60 million to PS4's 100 million. People should not get confused between fast sales and sustained sales. Ps4 won't burn quite as hot and short as Wii, but it will be more like a Wii pattern than the more gradual and longer lived PS360 sales patterns. And xb one is following a similar track. it will burn out very fast in all but the English speaking markets, if MS doesn't do something different. |
Again, you're simplifying things way too much. You're assuming every single one of the Wii buyers was a casual who has now gone mobile...that is a huge assumption and most likely wrong.
Secondly, the PS360 market is about 170m, not 160m.
Thirdly, what evidence do you have that PS4 will not last as long as PS3?
