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Forums - Sales Discussion - Prediction: WiiU to hit 10m sold after E3 2015

 

WiiU to hit 10m sold after E3 2015

Before E3 119 60.71%
 
During E3 15 7.65%
 
After E3 62 31.63%
 
Total:196
cfin2987@gmail.com on 19 December 2014
Ljink96 said:
Most likely after Zelda and Starfox are shown. Now that I look at it, Wii U won't get past Game Cube will it? No wonder they've already started development on a new console. Anyway, yeah 10M after E3.


As have Sony and MS. It would be odd if R&D hadn't started by this point. 



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Seece on 19 December 2014
cfin2987@gmail.com said:

Average of 50 k per week @ 25 weeks would leave us with 1.5 million units sold between January and June. Just very approx but 50k per week with a game every month is a decent estimate. If you're looking at 9 million by years end, that would mean around 10.5 million by E3. 

 

10 million after e3 would mean an average of less than 40k a week from jam through June. 

e3 is 22 weeks, and 25 x 50 is 1.25m not 1.5m.

It's more like 1,100,000 by your calculations.



 

tbone51 on 19 December 2014
Seece said:
tbone51 said:
AnthonyW86 said:
Seece said:

So it looks like WiiU is on track to hit 9m (with a bit of luck it could do a little higher) by 2015. I looked at how long it took WiiU to sell 1m from Jan 4th~ this year, and it takes me to June 14th.


Sorry but 9m at the end of the year is not very likely. Wii-U is overtracked here at VGC, it was overtracked in November by 100k in the U.S. alone. And with the insane competition between PS4 and XBOne it seems Wii-U might actually sell worse this holiday than it did last year.


adjustments were alreadymade for the 100k (though still overtracked by about 40k-70k in the US last i remember.

130k.

NPD LTD of WiiU is 3,085,000 and we have 3,212,000

 

127k gap.


Oh ok, Europe+Everywhere else is probably another 100k-150k. Though we got some figures and it seems to be closely tracked here.



Miyamotoo on 19 December 2014
Aerys said:
 and Zelda will certainly not release this year

The said 2-3 times only in december that Zelda is 2015. title.



Seece on 19 December 2014
Miyamotoo said:
Aerys said:
 and Zelda will certainly not release this year

The said 2-3 times only in december that Zelda is 2015. title.

Doesn't really matter for the context of this thread, isn't coming out before E3.



 

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cfin2987@gmail.com on 19 December 2014
Seece said:
cfin2987@gmail.com said:

Average of 50 k per week @ 25 weeks would leave us with 1.5 million units sold between January and June. Just very approx but 50k per week with a game every month is a decent estimate. If you're looking at 9 million by years end, that would mean around 10.5 million by E3. 

 

10 million after e3 would mean an average of less than 40k a week from jam through June. 

e3 is 22 weeks, and 25 x 50 is 1.25m not 1.5m.

It's more like 1,100,000 by your calculations.


Arrrg, I'm on my phone browser and very embarrassed now :( but you get what I mean. If someone has a calculator handy, the average per week would be nice.



Seece on 19 December 2014
tbone51 said:
Seece said:

130k.

NPD LTD of WiiU is 3,085,000 and we have 3,212,000

 

127k gap.


Oh ok, Europe+Everywhere else is probably another 100k-150k. Though we got some figures and it seems to be closely tracked here.

25k~ when next weeks France data comes in (assuming ioi doesn't adjust by then). Can't say for the other countries.



 

benji232 on 19 December 2014
SocialistSlayer said:
its worth pointing out that many nintendo fans, didnt even believe nintendos forcast and claimed the wiiu would easily clear 10 million this year, even 12 million.

well it looks like nintendo didnt low ball its estimates, and actually again overestimated (as they do every year it seems).
it appears the wiiu wont even sell 9 million by the end of the year, let alone 10.

and it looks like it doesnt have a chance to even come close to matching the gamecubes sales. ive been saying all along it would beat it, but its going to sell significantly less than what i even thought, less than 15 million is a real likely possiblility.
it wont come close to the pipe dream that many nintendo fans still hold on to of 30-50million (which was a laughable estimate 12 months ago, and just crazy now that many still hold on to that estimate)

Actually, they are right on track to hit their target (if not beat it by a small margin). Last year, they shipped 1.99m consoles in Q3. This year, we can expect a 10-20% increase in shipments yoy. So that would put Q3 shipments at 2.3-2.4m. They already shipped 1.1m lol... You really believe that Nintendo won't be able to ship 100-250k consoles in Q4? 

I do agree with you that wiiU LT sales are going to end up under 15m though (it's in my sig).



Predictions for LT console sales:

PS4: 120M

XB1: 70M

WiiU: 14M

3DS: 60M

Vita: 13M

Ljink96 on 19 December 2014
cfin2987@gmail.com said:
Ljink96 said:
Most likely after Zelda and Starfox are shown. Now that I look at it, Wii U won't get past Game Cube will it? No wonder they've already started development on a new console. Anyway, yeah 10M after E3.


As have Sony and MS. It would be odd if R&D hadn't started by this point. 

Well, Nintendo has been more open about it. That's not saying much but they've been talking successors from day 1 of Wii U launch.



cfin2987@gmail.com on 19 December 2014
Ljink96 said:
cfin2987@gmail.com said:
Ljink96 said:
Most likely after Zelda and Starfox are shown. Now that I look at it, Wii U won't get past Game Cube will it? No wonder they've already started development on a new console. Anyway, yeah 10M after E3.


As have Sony and MS. It would be odd if R&D hadn't started by this point. 

Well, Nintendo has been more open about it. That's not saying much but they've been talking successors from day 1 of Wii U launch.


I have heard a lot of nonsense from the media, but nothing particularly solid from the company themselves. Just answers taken out of context. A lot of people really don't like the Wii U and that's fine, but they will see it through to a normal extent. What I don't understand is, that the very people who want the system destroyed were doing the same thing to the wii when it sold wonderfully. So whether they provide high quality games on a system that sells badly or well selling tripe for the masses, people are going to hate either way.